(Bloomberg) — Multiple central banks are set to keep interest rates frozen in the coming week while continuing to gauge the impact of trade disruptions instigated by US President Donald Trump.<\/p>\n
From Washington to London, wary officials in countries that account for two fifths of the global economy may display a collective sense of paralysis as they assess risks to inflation<\/a> and growth from tariffs and stop-start commerce flows. Renewed tensions in the Middle East<\/a> will only add to their conundrum.\u00a0<\/p>\n Also Read<\/strong> | Who is Sashidhar Jagdishan? The CEO facing fraud allegations from Lilavati Trust<\/a><\/p>\n Their challenge was articulated on June 3 by the Paris-based OECD, which cut forecasts for global economic expansion while warning that protectionism is adding to consumer-price pressures. The toll that trade tensions are taking on world prosperity is likely to feature when Group of Seven leaders meet in Canada from Sunday.<\/p>\n Investors will focus most on the Federal Reserve decision on Wednesday, the eve of Trump\u2019s 150th day<\/a> in power. Observers reckon officials there are still months away from being able to make a settled judgment on the implications of White House policy on the economy.<\/p>\n What Bloomberg Economics Says?<\/p>\n \u201cAmid the uncertainty, the FOMC considers the optimal path is to stay put. We expect the median participant to signal just one 25-basis-point cut in 2025, down from two earlier this year \u2014 and a sizable minority may see no cuts at all. That\u2019s a big gap from market pricing, which still leans toward 50 bps. Powell will try to thread the needle, acknowledging softer data but stressing the Fed is in \u2018wait-and-see\u2019 mode amid policy uncertainty.\u201d<\/p>\n Also Read<\/strong> | D-Street week ahead: 5 key triggers for Indian stock market<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014Anna Wong, Stuart Paul, Eliza Winger, Estelle Ou and Chris G. Collins, economists. For full analysis, click here<\/p>\n The Bank of Japan<\/a>, meanwhile, may hold off on a rate move while adjusting bond purchases, and counterparts in the UK and Norway are seen following suit with unchanged borrowing costs.<\/p>\n In all, central banks responsible for six of the 10 most-traded currencies in the world are set for decisions. Among the them, only those in Sweden and Switzerland are anticipated by economists to tweak rates, with small cuts predicted for each.<\/p>\n Peers in Brazil, Chile, Indonesia and Turkey may also deliver no change as policymakers digest domestic developments and international events.<\/p>\n Elsewhere, a flurry of Chinese economic data, UK inflation, and several speeches by European Central Bank officials might draw attention in one of the more packed weeks of the year so far.<\/p>\n Also Read<\/strong> | Putin speaks to US President Donald Trump, condemns Israel’s attack on Iran<\/a>US and Canada<\/p>\n US economic data in the holiday-shortened week include the latest readout of consumer demand. Economists project a decline in May retail sales, primarily due to fewer motor vehicle purchases. Excluding autos and gasoline, however, Tuesday\u2019s report is likely to show sales firmed after a soft start to the second quarter.<\/p>\n Concerns have been building that flagging consumer sentiment will translate into a sustained pullback in household demand.<\/p>\n Also on tap are reports on May housing starts and industrial production. The Fed\u2019s production report on Tuesday is seen showing a second month of declining manufacturing output, as factories contend with uncertainty stemming from trade policy.<\/p>\n Economists forecast figures on Wednesday will show little change in new residential construction, consistent with a sluggish housing market that\u2019s battling various headwinds, including high borrowing costs.<\/p>\n In Canada, Prime Minister Mark Carney aims to meet with every world leader gathered in Kananaskis, Alberta, for the G-7 summit that starts in earnest on Monday.\u00a0<\/p>\n Also Read<\/strong> | Why the Israel-Iran conflict matters to Indian growth<\/a><\/p>\n The Bank of Canada\u2019s summary of deliberations will offer new insight into how policymakers are thinking about the future rate path, after they held borrowing costs steady while telegraphing that a cut may be needed if the economy weakens and inflation is contained. Governor Tiff Macklem will also deliver a speech.<\/p>\n Population estimates for the first quarter will reveal how the government\u2019s efforts to crack down on temporary migration are shaping up, while retail data for April and a flash estimate for May will shed further light on consumers\u2019 response to the trade war.<\/p>\n Asia<\/p>\n It\u2019s a big week for central banks in Asia, with most seen holding rates unchanged during a period of uncertainty for trade policy and Middle East tensions. China and Japan will also release a range of economic data.<\/p>\n On Monday, Pakistan\u2019s central bank is expected to keep rates steady, followed by the BOJ on Tuesday. It\u2019s expected to hold after Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled inflation still isn\u2019t at target. Investors will focus on what policymakers do about their bond-purchase program, with about two-thirds of respondents in a Bloomberg survey anticipating a slowdown in cutbacks.<\/p>\n Bank Indonesia is seen keeping rates unchanged on Wednesday, as is Taiwan on Thursday as its economy endures currency volatility that sent the Taiwanese dollar to the strongest in three years. China is forecast to hold its 1- and 5-year loan prime rates steady on Friday.<\/p>\n The Philippines is the only central bank in the region seen cutting \u2014 by 25 basis points \u2014 as price pressures ease.\u00a0<\/p>\n Also Read<\/strong> | Israel \u2018kills Iranians in cold blood\u2019 \u2014 What we know so far about the conflict<\/a><\/p>\n China on Monday releases a slew of figures on its economy, including home prices, retail sales, industrial production, foreign direct investment, and the jobless rate. Economists expect that retail sales slowed in May from the prior month, industrial activity held up as companies frontloaded manufacturing, and property investment contracted once again.<\/p>\n Japan starts releasing a number of important insights on Wednesday, including exports that likely contracted in May \u2014 the same for machine orders, as US tariff policy weighed on demand. National consumer prices likely strengthened in the month on a core basis in data due on Friday.<\/p>\n May trade figures are also due from India, while Singapore shows electronics exports and Malaysia and Taiwan their overall exports. The data will underscore what\u2019s been a tumultuous few months in global commerce as companies attempt to balance tariffs with anticipated customer demand.<\/p>\n Elsewhere, Australia likely added fewer people to payrolls in May. New Zealand reports first quarter gross domestic product, seen contracting from the prior year for the fourth quarter in a row, and Sri Lanka also reports GDP. We\u2019ll get a look at inflation trends in South Korea with the export prices index and producer prices, both for May.\u00a0<\/p>\n Also Read<\/strong> | INR vs USD: Rupee strengthens against US dollar. Where’s rupee headed now?<\/a>Europe, Middle East, Africa<\/p>\n The BOE announces its rate decision at noon London time on Thursday, the day after UK inflation figures are released. A vote to hold policy at 4.25% is widely expected, despite signs that UK tax increases and US tariffs are weighing on growth and causing job cuts.<\/p>\n The concern is elevated headline inflation. Economists expect consumer-price growth to be essentially unchanged at 3.4% on Wednesday \u2013 well above the 2% target. Fresh Middle East turmoil after Israel struck Iran\u2019s nuclear program poses a fresh risk, with oil prices having spiked following the attack.<\/p>\n The Monetary Policy Committee is anticipated by forecasters to vote 7-2 to hold, with two likely dissenters seeking a quarter-point cut. Most expect the BOE to stick with guidance for reductions to be \u201cgradual and careful,\u201d signaling a quarter-point move every three months. Bloomberg\u2019s survey sees three more such steps \u2014 in August, November and February \u2014 to 3.5%.\u00a0<\/p>\n Also Read<\/strong> | US Fed: 5 key risks highlighted by Jerome Powell<\/a><\/p>\n Several other decisions are scheduled:<\/p>\n Also Read<\/strong> | ‘Overspending will drive US into debt slavery’: Elon Musk on tax bill<\/a><\/p>\n A slew of euro-area central banker appearances include the Bundesbank chief on Monday, an event in Milan featuring as many as six Governing Council members on Wednesday, and an address by ECB President Christine Lagarde to a Ukrainian central bank conference on Thursday.<\/p>\n Among data highlights, Germany\u2019s ZEW investor sentiment survey is released on Tuesday, and euro-zone consumer confidence comes out on Friday.<\/p>\n In Israel on Sunday, data may show inflation eased slightly, to 3.5% in May from 3.6% a month earlier. The central bank has kept its rate at 4.5% for more than a year amid escalating regional tensions.<\/p>\n Inflation numbers are due in South Africa two days later, with a steady outcome of 2.8% expected. On Thursday, the South African Reserve Bank publishes its biannual financial stability review.<\/p>\n Latin America<\/p>\n Brazil\u2019s April GDP-proxy data due Monday comes on the heels of robust first-quarter results.<\/p>\n Government handouts to low-income households and a strong labor market, among other tailwinds, are likely to head off any pronounced loss of economic momentum.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n