New data from Nasa has revealed a dramatic rise in the intensity of weather events such as droughts and floods over the past five years.<\/p>\n
The study shows that such extreme events are becoming more frequent, longer-lasting and more severe, with last year\u2019s figures reaching twice that of the 2003-2020 average.<\/p>\n
The steepness of the rise was not foreseen. The researchers say they are amazed and alarmed by the latest figures from the watchful eye of Nasa\u2019s Grace satellite, which tracks environmental changes in the planet. They say climate change is the most likely cause of the apparent trend, even though the intensity of extremes appears to have soared even faster than global temperatures.<\/p>\n
A Met Office expert said increases in extremes have long been predicted but are now being seen in reality. He warned that people were unprepared for such weather events, which would be outside previous experience.<\/p>\n
The data is not yet peer-reviewed, and researchers said they would need another 10 or more years to confirm to conclusively call it a trend. The data has been co-produced by Dr Bailing Li, from the Hydrological Sciences Laboratory of Nasa\u2019s Goddard Space Flight Center \u2013 affiliated with the University of Maryland\u2019s Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, who told the Guardian: \u201cWe can\u2019t prove causation yet \u2013 we would need a much longer dataset. It\u2019s difficult to pinpoint exactly what\u2019s happening here, but other events suggest that (global) warming is the driving factor. We are seeing more and more extreme events round the world, so this is certainly alarming.\u201d<\/p>\n
Her colleague Dr Matthew Rodell, chief of hydrologic sciences at Goddard, also counselled caution over the latest data, but admitted that he too was worried about the apparent acceleration of a trend in destructive events. \u201cIt\u2019s certainly scary,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
Graphic illustrating the increasing intensity of weather events<\/a><\/p>\n The earlier part of the Nasa time series was published in Nature Water in 2023. The researchers used a mathematical formula to calculate the total effect of a weather event in terms of severity measured by the total area affected, the duration of the event and how wet or dry it was. The paper warned that disturbance to the water system would be one of the most significant consequences of the climate crisis.<\/p>\n The paper noted that the intensity of extremes was strongly correlated with global mean temperature, more so than with El Ni\u00f1o, the influential ocean current, or other climate indicators, suggesting that continued warming of the planet will cause more frequent, more severe, and longer and\/or larger droughts and floods.<\/p>\n The Nasa researchers produced the updated statistics at the request of the Oxford-based research organisation Global Water Intelligence, whose head, Christopher Gasson, said water companies were in the firing line of climate change \u2013 facing too much water or too little water \u2013 or both.<\/p>\n He said most water companies were completely unprepared to cope with the changes under way. \u201cThis is extremely scary,\u201d he said. \u201cThe industry needs to attract investment on a massive scale.\u201d<\/p>\n Prof Richard Betts, head of climate change impacts at the Met Office and Exeter University, said of the Nasa report: \u201cThis is a stark reminder that a hotter planet means more severe floods and droughts. This has long been predicted, but is now being seen in reality.<\/p>\n \u201cThe world isn\u2019t prepared for the changes in intense rainfall and drought that are now occurring. All around the world people have built their ways of living around the weather that they and their forebears were used to, which leaves them vulnerable to more frequent and severe extremes that are outside past experience. As well as urgently ramping up efforts to reduce emissions to halt global warming, we need to catch up on adaptation to live better with the changes that are already happening.\u201d<\/p>\n A recent report by the charity WaterAid<\/a> said extreme fluctuations between floods and droughts were devastating millions of lives, with many major cities experiencing \u201cwhiplash\u201d events from drought to flood or heat to cold \u2013 or vice versa.<\/p>\n skip past newsletter promotion<\/a><\/p>\n The planet’s most important stories. Get all the week’s environment news – the good, the bad and the essential<\/p>\n Privacy Notice: <\/strong>Newsletters may contain info about charities, online ads, and content funded by outside parties. For more information see our Privacy Policy<\/a>. We use Google reCaptcha to protect our website and the Google Privacy Policy<\/a> and Terms of Service<\/a> apply.<\/p>\n after newsletter promotion<\/p>\n