Amundi<\/a>, said that the name of
\n the game in 2025 will be diversifying away from the US and into
\n European and emerging market bonds.
\n<\/p>\n
\n \u201cGovernment bond markets are rattled by the threat of higher debt
\n and rising inflation fears, keeping volatility high. Investors
\n are likely to demand greater compensation for long-dated bonds,
\n making yields appealing,\u201d Mortier said in a note. \u00a0
\n<\/p>\n
\n Amundi highlighted how major economies are displaying resilience
\n but are also diverging paths, with the US expected to slow down,
\n Europe to post moderate growth and India to stand out.\u00a0
\n<\/p>\n
\n Amundi estimates global growth at 2.9 per cent and 2.8 per
\n cent\u00a0in 2025 and 2026, with GDP growth nearing 1.3 per cent
\n in developed markets and 3.9 per cent in emerging markets over
\n the next two years.\u00a0It estimates 2025 and 2026 GDP growth at
\n 6.6 per cent and 6.4 per cent for India, and at 4.3 per cent and
\n 3.9 per cent for China.
\n<\/p>\n
\n Differences in growth, inflation, and fiscal trends will drive
\n divergence, notably in monetary policies.
\n<\/p>\n
\n Mortier favours a flexible approach to\u00a0diversifying away
\n from the US across global markets, prefering European and
\n emerging market government bonds, which\u00a0could benefit from a
\n good growth and inflation mix and weaker dollar. He is tactical
\n on duration.\u00a0In credit, he favours high-quality credit and
\n prefers European over US investment-grade. He is neutral on high
\n yield as spreads may rise towards the end of the year. In terms
\n of\u00a0sectors, Mortier likes financials and subordinated
\n credit. Bank subordinated debt could prove one of the most
\n interesting segments.
\n<\/p>\n
\n Equities<\/strong>
\n \u201cDespite unpredictable policymaking, business resilience, and new
\n rerouting trends, the expected rate cuts from central banks will
\n create opportunities in global equities,\u201d Monica Defend, head of
\n Amundi Investment Institute, said.\u00a0\u201cWe are focusing on
\n themes such as European defence spending, US deregulation,
\n corporate governance reform in Japan, and the Make in
\n India\u00a0initiative,\u201d she continued.
\n<\/p>\n
\n Defend believes that rotation\u00a0will continue away from the US
\n market and that developed market equity should generate low
\n single-digit returns in the second half of 2025. She favours
\n global equities with a focus on valuations, solid margins, and
\n careful sector selection through major\u00a0themes\u00a0such as
\n European defence and infrastructure, AI, US deregulation,
\n corporate governance reform in Japan and \u2018Make in India.\u2019\u00a0
\n<\/p>\n
\n Defend is positive on European mid-caps, equal-weighted US, and
\n high dividend equities in Japan.\u00a0Sector wise, she favours a
\n mix of cyclicals and defensives, prioritising domestic and
\n service-oriented sectors.\u00a0She prefers financials and
\n communication services over energy and materials, with utilities
\n as a hedge.
\n<\/p>\n
\n Defend also believes that emerging market equities are
\n well-positioned to benefit from structural shifts in countries
\n adapting to global economic realignments. The focus is on
\n resilient and domestic-oriented sectors, defence and IT.\u00a0
\n<\/p>\n
\n Vincenzo Vedda, global chief investment officer at DWS<\/a> also said that the sentiment
\n and situation for emerging market equities has slightly improved.
\n \u201cThis holds particularly true for China\u00a0\u2013\u00a0both, for
\n corporations in general and for consumer-oriented tech
\n corporations in particular,\u201d Vedda said. However, he thinks that
\n Indian equities appear to be expensively valued, especially
\n against the background of comparably weak data, recently released
\n by many corporations.
\n<\/p>\n
\n Alternatives<\/strong>
\n Amundi believes that gold and commodities are good hedges against
\n inflation risks, infrastructure and private debt provide stable
\n cashflows.\u00a0With gains of roughly 25 per cent in the current
\n year, Vedda highlighted that gold is one of the top performers.
\n The reasons: lasting geopolitical uncertainties, the waning trust
\n in the dollar, globally-rising liquidity and a lasting demand
\n from central banks. This constellation is expected to stay
\n around. For this reason, Vedda raised his price target again,
\n forecasting a price of $3,750 per ounce by June 2026.
\n<\/p>\n
\n In private markets, Amundi said selectivity will be crucial due
\n to huge capital inflows. Currency diversification is also
\n crucial, in particular for non-dollar investors.
<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Together with German asset manager DWS, yesterday French asset manager Amundi outlined its mid-year global investment outlook for…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":192329,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3091],"tags":[51,2441,16,15],"class_list":{"0":"post-192328","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-markets","8":"tag-business","9":"tag-markets","10":"tag-uk","11":"tag-united-kingdom"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@uk\/114700093050813282","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/192328","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=192328"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/192328\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/192329"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=192328"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=192328"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=192328"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}