{"id":192416,"date":"2025-06-17T19:05:14","date_gmt":"2025-06-17T19:05:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/192416\/"},"modified":"2025-06-17T19:05:14","modified_gmt":"2025-06-17T19:05:14","slug":"will-the-eu-roll-back-2035-ev-monopoly-target-to-save-its-industry","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/192416\/","title":{"rendered":"Will The EU Roll Back 2035 EV Monopoly Target To Save Its Industry?"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"The<\/p>\n

Concept map depicting dialogue between China and the European Union. <\/p>\n

getty <\/p>\n

The European Union\u2019s plan for a new electric vehicle monopoly by 2035 will falter as sales disappoint and China\u2019s EV push gains momentum. Brussels faces an uncomfortable choice: water down its green transition, or risk the health of its flagship auto industry.<\/p>\n

The EU is being urged to dilute its plan that new EVs will be the only game in town by 2035 by widening the possibilities with hybrids and e-fuels. Green groups are adamant EVs should be the only option.<\/p>\n

Industry experts say EU regulations to curb CO2 emissions in the name of saving the planet are having unfortunate side effects. They are exposing Europe\u2019s carmakers to an existential threat from China not only in home markets but in global markets too. Leading mass carmakers like Stellantis<\/a> and Volkswagen<\/a> are being forced to close factories. Their global markets are being undermined as well. Even the likes of Germany\u2019s BMW, Mercedes and Audi are being exposed in the electrification stakes.<\/p>\n

The EU has raised tariffs on electric cars from China<\/a> by an extra 17% to 35.3%, on top of the existing 10% car import duty. But this hasn\u2019t slowed China\u2019s business much because of its huge lead in efficiency. Chinese manufacturers have also switched their focus to plug-in hybrids which don\u2019t carry the extra tariff.<\/p>\n

The EU is between a rock and a hard place. Save the auto industry and millions of jobs by watering down the CO2 regulations and be accused of climate change denial. Or maintain the hard line, please environmental lobby groups, and weaken the industry. Politics will decide on this issue, which has become a left\/right controversy. The left has traditionally been on the side of climate change absolutists. The right has been more willing to compromise. Recent elections for the EU, and the member states, have shown a move to the right, but it\u2019s not yet clear if this will herald a change of policy.<\/p>\n

Death sentence?<\/p>\n

In mid-2021 when the EU drew up its plan to phase out the sale of new combustion engine vehicles by 2035 in favour of EVs, it didn\u2019t look like a death sentence for its auto industry.<\/p>\n

But now some believe it does. China is geared up to flood the global market with EVs, hybrids and plug-in hybrids. Not to mention conventional ICE products. It is said to have at least a 30% efficiency advantage. \u201cChina speed\u201d has become a clich\u00e9 in the industry, referring to its ability to design and build state-of-the-art sedans and SUVs about twice as quickly as traditional automakers.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhat we have right now in Europe is regulation that might have been designed to benefit the Chinese carmakers. They are prepared. They are ahead of the Europeans,\u201d said Felipe Munoz, global automotive analyst at JATO Dynamics<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt needs to change,\u201d Munoz said in an email exchange.<\/p>\n

\u201cPoliticians are not seeing what\u2019s going on in the factories and the market-place. They are not aligned with reality,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

BYD Dolphin Surf electric vehicle at the model launch event in Paris. Photographer: Cyril … More Marcilhacy\/Bloomberg<\/p>\n

\u00a9 2025 Bloomberg Finance LP <\/p>\n

Munoz said it\u2019s not only the Chinese impact in Europe that is dangerous, it\u2019s the impact in regions where European automakers have been very strong and profitable. Here the Chinese are making big progress.<\/p>\n

The EU has decreed that automakers raise their EV market share in 2025 to 28% and ratchet up to about 80% by 2030 and 100% by 2035. The trouble is auto buyers aren\u2019t cooperating<\/a>. Sales forecasts by consultants and investment banks for 2030 point to about half of the 80%. Investment bank UBS recently slashed almost two million EVs from its sales forecast for Europe in 2030. That now stands at 6.4 million or 37.8%. Other forecasts include BMI, a part of Fitch Solutions, 35%, French automotive consultancy Inovev 40%, and investment researcher Jefferies 35%.<\/p>\n

Survey shows European EV reluctance<\/p>\n

And according to a survey <\/a>published by oil giant Shell, drivers in Europe are becoming more reluctant to switch to electric vehicles from combustion engines. The survey of 15,000 drivers across the world showed that 41% of respondents in Europe would consider switching to an electric car compared with 48% last year. The main negatives were the cost of vehicles, and high prices for public charging. Shell operates 75,000 charging stations in Europe, the U.S. and China.<\/p>\n

The European Automobile Manufacturers Association<\/a> said in a statement that it has voiced concerns about how the transition to climate neutrality has not progressed as expected, as the market uptake of battery-electric models has been slower than anticipated.<\/p>\n

\u201cHowever, to stay on course we urgently need a holistic approach to ensure that the industry remains competitive and resilient whilst investing in emission reduction technologies. This includes:<\/p>\n