![\"2024](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/2024-yr4.png\")
<\/p>\nNasa has revised its calculations for a “city killer” asteroid to collide with the Moon. <\/p>\n
The updated assessment around 2024 YR4 follows fresh observations by the James Webb Space Telescope.<\/p>\n
The space agency’s latest projections indicate the potentially hazardous asteroid could strike the Moon on December 22, 2032. <\/p>\n
Now, updated calculations has increased the probability of a lunar impact from 3.8 per cent to 4.3 per cent.<\/p>\n
Nasa estimates the asteroid weighs nearly a quarter of a million tonnes and could unleash devastating power if it strikes Earth<\/p>\n
ESA<\/p>\n
These refined calculations emerged from observations conducted with JWST’s Near-Infrared Camera in May, which enabled scientists to determine the space rock’s trajectory with unprecedented accuracy.<\/p>\n
“As data comes in, it is normal for the impact probability to evolve,” Nasa representatives stated. <\/p>\n
The agency confirmed that whilst Earth remains safe from any collision with the asteroid in the foreseeable future, the Moon faces an elevated risk.<\/p>\n
The asteroid measures between 53 and 67 metres in diameter, roughly equivalent to the height of the Leaning Tower of Pisa. <\/p>\n
Should such an object strike Earth, it would possess the destructive capacity to obliterate an entire city with force comparable to 500 Hiroshima bombs.<\/p>\n
LATEST DEVELOPMENTS<\/strong><\/p>\n The probability has been updated<\/p>\n Nasa<\/p>\n First detected in December 2024, astronomers identified that 2024 YR4’s solar orbit regularly intersects with Earth’s path. <\/p>\n Initial trajectory calculations in February suggested a 3.1 per cent probability of Earth impact in 2032, prompting urgent monitoring efforts.<\/p>\n The James Webb Space Telescope conducted its most recent observations of the space rock before it travels beyond viewing range towards the outer solar system. <\/p>\n Scientists utilised the telescope’s emergency discretionary observation time for two viewing sessions in April and May.<\/p>\n Subsequent observations using both JWST and ground-based telescopes have eliminated any Earth impact risk, whilst simultaneously revealing the Moon’s increased vulnerability.<\/p>\n A lunar collision would generate a new crater but pose no threat to Earth’s natural satellite overall.<\/p>\n Some researchers view the potential impact as a unique scientific opportunity. <\/p>\n “We’ve got our fingers crossed for a moon impact,” said Alan Fitzsimmons, a physics and mathematics professor at Queen’s University Belfast who was not involved in the JWST observations.<\/p>\n “It would have no effect on Earth, but would allow us to study the formation of a lunar crater by a known asteroid for the very first time.”<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Nasa has revised its calculations for a “city killer” asteroid to collide with the Moon. The updated assessment…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":193170,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3844],"tags":[12,70,512,413,16,15,978,727],"class_list":{"0":"post-193169","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-space","8":"tag-news","9":"tag-science","10":"tag-sgg","11":"tag-space","12":"tag-uk","13":"tag-united-kingdom","14":"tag-us","15":"tag-us-news"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@uk\/114701819353670309","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/193169","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=193169"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/193169\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/193170"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=193169"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=193169"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=193169"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}![\"\\u200bThe](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/u200bthe-probability-has-been-updated.png\")