{"id":195968,"date":"2025-06-19T02:22:10","date_gmt":"2025-06-19T02:22:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/195968\/"},"modified":"2025-06-19T02:22:10","modified_gmt":"2025-06-19T02:22:10","slug":"what-happens-to-bitcoin-if-the-u-s-joins-the-iran-israel-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/195968\/","title":{"rendered":"What happens to Bitcoin if the U.S. joins the Iran-Israel war?"},"content":{"rendered":"<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\">BTC remained range-bound within $100K-$110K amid geopolitical tensions.\u00a0<\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\">QCP Capital warned that the war could lead to inflation and affect risk-on markets.\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The Israel-Iran war has entered its sixth day, but <a href=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/category\/bitcoin-news\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\">Bitcoin [BTC]<\/a> has stayed above $100K. However, the market direction remains uncertain amid the U.S. threats to join the war.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Besides, market experts have cautioned that escalations could weigh on inflation and dent risk sentiment later in the year.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>BTC: Cornered between inflation, missiles<\/p>\n<p>In a Wednesday market update, Singapore-based crypto trading desk QCP Capital stated that BTC faced a double-tail risk from the war and inflation.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>According to the trading firm, an elusive solution to the Israel-Iran conflict could keep BTC on edge.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>In particular, QCP analysts <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/QCPgroup\/status\/1935270202968785175\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow external noreferrer\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">cautioned<\/a> that interference with the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil shipping corridor, could spike oil prices and exacerbate risk markets.\u00a0<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\u201cIf Tehran feels cornered, a disruption or full blockade of the Strait of Hormuz becomes a credible tail risk. This would likely trigger another inflationary spike at a time when global macro conditions are already strained.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>On the 17th of June, the trading firm <a href=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/bitcoin-fluctuates-below-108k-whats-next-amid-israel-iran-tensions\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\">warned<\/a> of a likely global risk-off move if the U.S. joins the conflict. <\/p>\n<p>Worryingly, President Donald Trump\u2019s hawkish tone for Iran\u2019s \u2018unconditional surrender\u2019 wasn\u2019t offering market relief for a mediated deal, as of press time.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>In fact, reports have shown significant U.S. military equipment moving eastwards, with key Middle East assets put on a high alert.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>According to prediction site Polymarket, the <a href=\"https:\/\/polymarket.com\/event\/us-military-action-against-iran-before-july?tid=1750247966763\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow external noreferrer\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">odds<\/a> of the U.S. joining the Israel-Iran war before July jumped over 60%.\u00a0 <\/p>\n<p>The chances spiked higher to 90% for a similar move by August. Put differently, the markets highly expected a likely U.S. involvement.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Screenshot-2025-06-18-150336.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-503043\" class=\"size-full wp-image-503043\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml,%3Csvg%20xmlns=\" http:=\"\" alt=\"Bitcoin Israel-Iran\" width=\"949\" height=\"568\" data-lazy- data-lazy- data-lazy-src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Screenshot-2025-06-18-150336.png\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p id=\"caption-attachment-503043\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source: Polymarket<\/p>\n<p>This begs the question: which way will BTC go, and will it act as a hedge, or will it follow equities?\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Bitcoin\u2019s next path<\/p>\n<p>QCP Capital also noted that the conflict could push the Fed to hold off on a rate cut in the second half of the year.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>For this week\u2019s Fed rate decision, the firm added,\u00a0<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\u201cWe expect the Fed to hold rates steady but strike a hawkish tone. Markets currently price in two rate cuts in 2025, but we believe the Fed may signal just one.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Per QCP analysts, such a revised rate-cut outlook could weigh on BTC.\u00a0<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\u201cA revision like this could weigh on risk assets, including $BTC and broader digital markets.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Meanwhile, BTC acted like equities rather than a risk-off hedge asset. BTC has been touted as the best alternative hedge against wars and inflation. However, at press time, it was more positively correlated to stocks (risk-on) than gold (risk-off).\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/btc-pearson-correlation-30d.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-503045\" class=\"size-full wp-image-503045\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml,%3Csvg%20xmlns=\" http:=\"\" alt=\"Bitcoin Israel-Iran\" width=\"2401\" height=\"1400\" data-lazy- data-lazy- data-lazy-src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/btc-pearson-correlation-30d.png\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p id=\"caption-attachment-503045\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source: The Block<\/p>\n<p>Per BTC Pearson Correlation, the digital asset had a -0.07 correlation with gold and +0.61 alignment with the Nasdaq Composite. In short, it was acting like a high-beta tech stock rather than a hedge.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>On the BTC market positioning, there was a premium for calls (bullish bets) in the near term as shown by rising 25 Delta Skew for 1-week (8%) and 1-month (5%) tenors. <\/p>\n<p>Simply put, option traders expected a rebound in the short term despite a drop from $108K to $103K.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/BTC-25-Delta-Skew-2025-06-18T12_30_36.083Z.jpeg\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-503047\" class=\"size-full wp-image-503047\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml,%3Csvg%20xmlns=\" http:=\"\" alt=\"Bitcoin Israel-Iran \" width=\"2400\" height=\"1256\" data-lazy- data-lazy- data-lazy-src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/BTC-25-Delta-Skew-2025-06-18T12_30_36.083Z.jpeg\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p id=\"caption-attachment-503047\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/velo.xyz\/options\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener noreferrer\">Velo<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Notably, the 6-month tenor (yellow) also improved but was still negative, underscoring the demand for puts (bearish bets) and hedging activity for end-year option expiry. <\/p>\n<p>This echoed the potential end-of-year risk if inflation spikes, as painted by QCP Capital.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Overall, BTC remained resilient despite the ongoing Israel-Iran war and potential involvement by the U.S. But the potential impact of the war on inflation could dent risk-on markets and BTC later in the year.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tNext: <a href=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/storys-12-profits-wiped-out-in-24-hours-is-ips-hype-fading\/\" rel=\"prev noopener\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" target=\"_blank\">Story\u2019s 12% profits wiped out in 24 hours \u2013 Is IP\u2019s hype fading?<\/a>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"BTC remained range-bound within $100K-$110K amid geopolitical tensions.\u00a0 QCP Capital warned that the war could lead to inflation&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":195969,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[52,51,16,15],"class_list":{"0":"post-195968","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-business","8":"tag-ambcrypto","9":"tag-business","10":"tag-uk","11":"tag-united-kingdom"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@uk\/114707651298440309","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/195968","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=195968"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/195968\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/195969"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=195968"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=195968"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=195968"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}