{"id":196124,"date":"2025-06-19T03:44:09","date_gmt":"2025-06-19T03:44:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/196124\/"},"modified":"2025-06-19T03:44:09","modified_gmt":"2025-06-19T03:44:09","slug":"unemployment-rate-stays-steady-at-4-1-per-cent-in-may-as-employment-dips","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/196124\/","title":{"rendered":"Unemployment rate stays steady at 4.1 per cent in May, as employment dips"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">Australia&#8217;s unemployment rate has remained steady in May despite a dip in employment.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">The unemployment rate came in at 4.1 per cent last month, for the fifth month in a row, in seasonally adjusted terms.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">Employment decreased by 2,500 people and the number of officially unemployed people declined by 2,600.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.abc.net.au\/news\/2025-06-04\/gdp-analysis-first-quarter-abs-national-accounts-data\/105374766\" class=\"RelatedCard_link__rsgR9 FullBleedLink_root__lTw_U interactive_focusContext__yRhc_ interactive_defaults__AKxUU FullBleedLink_showVisited__g3Xvz\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Weak GDP gives RBA green light for another interest rate cut in July<\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"Typography_base__sj2RP RelatedCard_synopsis__cFwMW Typography_sizeMobile14__u7TGe Typography_lineHeightMobile20___U7Vr Typography_regular__WeIG6 Typography_colourInherit__dfnUx\" data-component=\"Typography\">Australia is teetering on the brink of falling back into a per capita recession, but the bad news could soon be good news for borrowers.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">Since employment and unemployment both declined in May, the labour force shrank a little \u2014 by 5,100 people.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">That saw the participation rate decline by 0.1 percentage points, to 67 per cent, down from 67.1 per cent in April.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">The apparent slowdown in momentum in Australia&#8217;s labour market in May follows an unexpectedly strong jobs surge in April, when 87,600 jobs were added.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">Kar Chong Low, economist for Oxford Economics Australia, said he wasn&#8217;t concerned about May&#8217;s weakness.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">But he is expecting employment growth to slow down this year, with rising global uncertainty.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">&#8220;The drop in jobs does not reflect a sudden reversal of the labour market&#8217;s fortunes. Instead, part of the fall reflects normalisation following exceptionally strong growth in April,&#8221; he said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">&#8220;Looking ahead, the labour market&#8217;s strong run over the past 12 months will slowly fade. Global uncertainty is clouding business decisions and prompting many firms to temper hiring plans,&#8221; he said.<\/p>\n<p>What&#8217;s the outlook for jobs?<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">Callam Pickering, Asia Pacific economist at global job site Indeed, said it was a &#8220;somewhat disappointing result&#8221; for jobs growth in May.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">But he also said we shouldn&#8217;t dwell on a slight decline in employment given the strong gains seen in prior months.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.abc.net.au\/news\/2025-05-20\/rba-statement-on-monetary-policy-interest-rates-analysis\/105311384\" class=\"RelatedCard_link__rsgR9 FullBleedLink_root__lTw_U interactive_focusContext__yRhc_ interactive_defaults__AKxUU FullBleedLink_showVisited__g3Xvz\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">RBA confident inflation tamed<\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"Typography_base__sj2RP RelatedCard_synopsis__cFwMW Typography_sizeMobile14__u7TGe Typography_lineHeightMobile20___U7Vr Typography_regular__WeIG6 Typography_colourInherit__dfnUx\" data-component=\"Typography\">The Reserve Bank has cut interest rates amid greater confidence that the inflation battle is won, and will remain won, even if borrowing rates fall further from here.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">&#8220;Australian employment has increased by around 329,100 people over the past year, outpacing growth in the working age population,&#8221; he said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">&#8220;That&#8217;s helped to keep the unemployment rate low, supporting Australian households throughout an otherwise difficult economic period.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">&#8220;Forward-looking measures of labour demand, such as Indeed job postings, remain healthy.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">&#8220;There is still plenty of demand for workers across the country and these vacancies will translate into strong employment gains in the near-term.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">&#8220;That said, in an uncertain economic environment hiring plans can change quickly and many businesses may find it difficult to navigate the current economic and geopolitical climate,&#8221; Mr Pickering said.<\/p>\n<p>Is the post-COVID surge in immigration nearing its end?<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">Independent economist Saul Eslake said the data show the monthly growth in the civilian working-age population (people aged 15 years and over) has fallen to 28,700 in the current quarter.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">That&#8217;s the smallest level of population growth since the December quarter of 2021, when the COVID international border restrictions were still in place, he said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">It&#8217;s down from a peak of 63,300 a month in the March quarter of 2023.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.abc.net.au\/news\/2025-06-03\/reserve-bank-australia-trump-tariffs-higher-uncertainty-impact\/105370286\" class=\"RelatedCard_link__rsgR9 FullBleedLink_root__lTw_U interactive_focusContext__yRhc_ interactive_defaults__AKxUU FullBleedLink_showVisited__g3Xvz\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Uncertainty about Trump&#8217;s tariffs isn&#8217;t good for Australia, RBA official says<\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"Typography_base__sj2RP RelatedCard_synopsis__cFwMW Typography_sizeMobile14__u7TGe Typography_lineHeightMobile20___U7Vr Typography_regular__WeIG6 Typography_colourInherit__dfnUx\" data-component=\"Typography\">Assistant governor Sarah Hunter says Australia is unlikely to be directly impacted by Donald Trump&#8217;s tariffs, but global uncertainty may cause weaker growth and labour market.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"EmphasisedText_quote__TE6kn\"><p>&#8220;That suggests that the post-COVID surge in immigration and population has now more or less finished,&#8221;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>  he said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">He said the employment result was also unlikely to have any bearing on the Reserve Bank&#8217;s interest rate deliberations next month.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">The RBA&#8217;s next Monetary Policy Board meeting is on July 7-8.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">&#8220;They are likely to interpret this data (and yesterday&#8217;s news of a 2.8 per cent fall in job vacancies according to Jobs and Skills Australia&#8217;s internet vacancies index) as indicating that the labour market is still tight by historical standards, though slowly becoming less so,&#8221; he said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">&#8220;Financial markets (and most economists) are very confident that there will be another 25 basis point rate cut at that meeting, although for what it&#8217;s worth I&#8217;m not similarly persuaded.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph__iYReA\">He said he thinks the RBA will probably wait until it has the June quarter inflation data before it cuts rates again at its mid-August meeting.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Australia&#8217;s unemployment rate has remained steady in May despite a dip in employment. The unemployment rate came in&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":196125,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3092],"tags":[12079,16920,51,5286,1700,3374,79680,13460,29199,897,79681,3716,16,5664,16919,15],"class_list":{"0":"post-196124","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-jobs","8":"tag-abs","9":"tag-australian-bureau-of-statistics","10":"tag-business","11":"tag-economic-growth","12":"tag-economy","13":"tag-employment","14":"tag-full-time-jobs","15":"tag-hiring","16":"tag-jobless-rate","17":"tag-jobs","18":"tag-part-time-jobs","19":"tag-rba","20":"tag-uk","21":"tag-unemployment","22":"tag-unemployment-rate","23":"tag-united-kingdom"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/196124","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=196124"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/196124\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/196125"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=196124"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=196124"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=196124"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}