{"id":202833,"date":"2025-06-21T15:21:14","date_gmt":"2025-06-21T15:21:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/202833\/"},"modified":"2025-06-21T15:21:14","modified_gmt":"2025-06-21T15:21:14","slug":"can-divided-european-powers-help-end-israels-war-on-iran-israel-iran-conflict-news","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/202833\/","title":{"rendered":"Can divided European powers help end Israel\u2019s war on Iran? | Israel-Iran conflict News"},"content":{"rendered":"

The three largest European nations by population, Germany, France and the UK, held talks<\/a> with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Geneva, Switzerland, on Friday, in an effort to avert a protracted war in the Middle East.<\/p>\n

US President Donald Trump, who has said he will decide within two weeks whether to join the assault on Tehran,<\/a> denounced the talks with European leaders as a failure.<\/p>\n

\u201cIran doesn\u2019t want to speak to Europe. They want to speak to us. Europe is not going to be able to help in this one,\u201d he told reporters.<\/p>\n

Araghchi had said Iran was not attending the talks in Geneva to negotiate anyway, only to listen.<\/p>\n

However, he added, \u201cThere is no room for negotiations with the US [either] until the Israeli aggression stops,\u201d as Iran and Israel traded salvoes of missiles and drones.<\/p>\n

The US has been Israel\u2019s chief ally and supporter in all its wars, and is the only country with major military assets deployed in the region, which might be able to alter the course of the war.<\/p>\n

\"E3\"French Minister for Europe and Foreign Affairs Jean-Noel Barrot, British Foreign Secretary David Lammy, German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul and European Union High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kaja Kallas, meet at an outdoor terrace table at the offices of the honorary Consul of the Federal Republic of Germany in Geneva, Switzerland June 20, 2025, during a meeting of European foreign ministers [Fabrice Coffrini\/Pool via Reuters]
\nWhy are the Europeans getting involved?<\/p>\n

Germany, France and the UK \u2013 referred to as the E3 in the context of Iran talks \u2013 helped negotiate a 2015 treaty with Iran.<\/p>\n

The 2015 treaty, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), saw Iran agree to develop only peaceful nuclear programmes and to submit to independent monitoring. Russia, China and the United States also helped negotiate it, as did the UN.<\/p>\n

But Trump withdrew the US from the JCPOA in May 2018, during his first term as president. The E3 tried to keep the treaty alive but failed. Iran abandoned it a year after the US did.<\/p>\n

On Saturday, the EU high commissioner for external action, Kaja Kallas, who also attended the talks on Friday, issued a statement reaffirming \u201ccommitment to Israel\u2019s security\u201d and \u201clongstanding concerns about Iran\u2019s expansion of its nuclear programme, which has no credible civilian purpose, in violation of almost all the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action\u00a0(JCPOA) provisions\u201d.<\/p>\n

But Israel\u2019s war in Gaza has divided the E3 over their approach to Israel, weakening European foreign policy unity further, although all want to avoid another war on Europe\u2019s doorstep.<\/p>\n

How are the E3 divided in their approach towards Israel?<\/p>\n

The E3 positions on Israel have diverged since Israel\u2019s war in Gaza began in October 2023.<\/p>\n

Germany has remained the most ardently pro-Israel, refusing to criticise Israel for indiscriminate bombing of civilians in Gaza and halting its funding to UNWRA, the UN agency assisting Palestinian refugees, which Israel accuses of aiding Hamas.<\/p>\n

Originally pro-Israel, the UK somewhat changed its stance after Labour\u2019s election victory last year. Earlier this month, the UK joined four other countries in formally sanctioning<\/a> Israel\u2019s far-right national security minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, for \u201cincitement of violence\u201d against Palestinians in the occupied West Bank and Gaza. Israel called the decision \u201coutrageous\u201d and \u201cunacceptable\u201d.<\/p>\n

France is even more sceptical towards Israel. It was one of four EU members that started calling for a Gaza ceasefire in April last year. A year later<\/a>, on April 9, French President Emmanuel Macron said he would formally recognise the state of Palestine within months, partly because \u201cat some point, it will be right\u201d, and partly to encourage Arab states to recognise Israel. France was reported to be lobbying other European nations to follow suit. Spain, Norway<\/a> and Ireland all formally recognised Palestine the following month.<\/p>\n

What leverage do the E3 have with Iran or Israel?<\/p>\n

They are the three biggest economies in Europe, with a collective gross domestic product (GDP) of about $11 trillion.<\/p>\n

Two of them, France and the UK, possess aircraft carriers and expeditionary forces that have deployed to the Middle East and North Africa regions.\u00a0They are also nuclear powers.<\/p>\n

Ultimately, though, none of these things is enough to sway either Iran or Israel on matters of national security. The true value of the E3 lies in their \u201cacceptability\u201d to both Iran and Israel as good-faith mediators and their ability to work towards common goals with the US.<\/p>\n

\u201cGermany, France and the UK have attempted to mediate for more than 20 years, and their approach has been milder than that of the US,\u201d George Tzogopoulos, a lecturer in international relations at the European Institute in Nice, told Al Jazeera. \u201cThe same is happening now. We have a war crisis, and these three prioritise diplomacy for the conflict to stop if possible and for negotiations to restart.\u201d<\/p>\n

Could the E3 broker a deal between Iran and Israel?<\/p>\n

It would be difficult, given their failure to resuscitate the JCPOA without the US.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe main reason [the E3 failed with the JCPOA] is the conclusion, made by both the Trump administration, President Trump himself, and the Israeli government that diplomacy cannot work in the case of Iran and, therefore, the role of the three was sidelined,\u201d said Tzogopoulos.<\/p>\n

But it is also difficult for them to coordinate with the US. Trump has now sidelined<\/a> his own intelligence community to adopt the Israeli view that Iran is developing a bomb. On Friday, Trump told reporters that his director of national intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, was \u201cwrong\u201d when she testified<\/a> that Iran was not building a nuclear weapon and that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had not re-authorised the country\u2019s suspended nuclear weapons programme.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf Israel has evidence that Iran was dashing for a bomb, I think it needs to come out more publicly and share that, because nobody else is confirming that assessment,\u201d said Kelsey Davenport, director for nonproliferation policy at the Arms Control Association, a nongovernmental organisation based in the US.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf there is some coordination between the US and the E3, we might be more optimistic, but for Europe, for the E3 to act autonomously, I wouldn\u2019t bet my money on their potential success,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe Europeans have very low chances,\u201d agreed Angelos Syrigos, a professor of international law at Panteion University in Athens. \u201cThe only people who can intervene seriously are the Americans. But I don\u2019t know if the Iranians are open to that. To have final peace, you usually need a decisive defeat,\u201d he said, referring to the Yom Kippur War between Israel and Egypt of 1973, which led to the Camp David agreement six years later, and US intervention in the Yugoslav War, which led to the Dayton Accord in 1995. \u201cOne party has to understand there is no military solution.\u201d<\/p>\n

Could the United Nations Security Council find a diplomatic solution?<\/p>\n

No, say experts, because China, Russia and the US disagree on Israel and Iran.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe Security Council won\u2019t find a solution to this,\u201d said Syrigos. \u201cEither the US or Russia or China will veto it. The difference is mainly between the US and China. The Chinese have invested a lot in Iran in recent years. That\u2019s where they buy most of their oil; they send [Iran] materials for nuclear weapons. It\u2019s China that is mostly connected to Iran.\u201d<\/p>\n

Russia has called on the US not to attack Iran, because of the risk of destabilising the region. But Russia also does not have the power to come to Iran\u2019s aid, said Syrigos.<\/p>\n

\u201cRight now, Russia is going along with the US. It doesn\u2019t want to get involved. It hasn\u2019t the power. So, it\u2019s turning a necessity into a voluntary act,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe logic of war will guide diplomatic efforts at this point, and we cannot know how the war will go, or the extent of the damage to Iran\u2019s nuclear programme,\u201d said Tzogopoulos.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The three largest European nations by population, Germany, France and the UK, held talks with Iranian Foreign Minister…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":202834,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5310],"tags":[6178,32,2000,299,13641,126,36,1824,774,837,1167,7424,839,12,2600,15],"class_list":{"0":"post-202833","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-germany","8":"tag-conflict","9":"tag-donald-trump","10":"tag-eu","11":"tag-europe","12":"tag-explainer","13":"tag-features","14":"tag-france","15":"tag-germany","16":"tag-iran","17":"tag-israel","18":"tag-israel-iran-conflict","19":"tag-israel-palestine-conflict","20":"tag-middle-east","21":"tag-news","22":"tag-switzerland","23":"tag-united-kingdom"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@uk\/114722038389389092","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/202833","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=202833"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/202833\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/202834"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=202833"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=202833"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=202833"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}