Brent crude could rise all the way to $100 and more, peaking at $110 per barrel in case Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, Goldman Sachs said in a new note.<\/p>\n
The investment bank said<\/a> this price could materialize if oil flows via the vital chokepoint were cut by half for a month and remained 10% lower than normal over the next 11 months. This is a rather specific forecast that may not be the most likely scenario for developments of the Middle East but some disruption in oil flows seems all but certain at this point.<\/p>\n After the initial price shock under Goldman\u2019s scenario, Brent would moderate to $95 per barrel over the final quarter of this year, the bank\u2019s analysts also said, as quoted by Reuters. This is a substantial revision of an earlier forecast for oil prices made by the bank last week. Then, Goldman Sachs estimated<\/a> a geopolitical premium of approximately $10 per barrel on Brent crude, though it suggested oil could exceed $90 if Iranian supply were disrupted.<\/p>\n The investment bank estimated the chance of Iran shutting down Hormuz at 52%, citing data from crowd-sourced prediction platform Polymarket. That same platform, by the way, pegs the chance of the United States officially declaring war on Iran before the end of the month at just 2%.<\/p>\n Crude oil prices, meanwhile, opened trade this week with an unsurprising gain, with Brent crude<\/a> trading at over $78 per barrel at the time of writing, and West Texas Intermediate<\/a> at $75.24 per barrel.<\/p>\n