{"id":207372,"date":"2025-06-23T10:02:14","date_gmt":"2025-06-23T10:02:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/207372\/"},"modified":"2025-06-23T10:02:14","modified_gmt":"2025-06-23T10:02:14","slug":"firepower-nato-makes-a-one-word-tweak-to-win-over-spain","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/207372\/","title":{"rendered":"FIREPOWER: NATO makes a one-word tweak to win over Spain"},"content":{"rendered":"

Take a free trial<\/a> of Euractiv Pro to get FIREPOWER in your inbox.<\/p>\n

Good morning, and welcome back to Firepower,<\/p>\n

\nWe\u2019re publishing daily this week to keep you fully up to speed on the NATO and EU summits. We\u2019ve also launched a live blog, bringing you the latest updates straight from our reporting teams on the ground in The Hague and Brussels.\n<\/p>\n

\nThe Middle East descended further into chaos over the weekend, with US warplanes joining Israel\u2019s aerial campaign against Iran. But in The Hague, the odds of confrontation eased slightly as Spain\u2019s Pedro S\u00e1nchez \u2013 the last holdout against Donald Trump\u2019s proposed 5% NATO spending target \u2013 struck a Sunday night deal to soften the pledge\u2019s wording.\n<\/p>\n

\nMore on that below, along with the latest pre-summit NATO news, a first look at the EU\u2019s upcoming Space Law, how defence features in Denmark\u2019s EU Council presidency plans, and more\n<\/p>\n

The NATO Blues
\nALL IN A WORD<\/strong>. The deal struck with Spain\u2019s S\u00e1nchez relies on a bit of linguistic sleight-of-hand to win over the lone holdout<\/a> on a declaration raising NATO\u2019s defence spending target to 5% of GDP by 2035. S\u00e1nchez\u2019s last-minute opposition had threatened to blow up months of careful work aimed at giving Donald Trump what he wants. So, will the US president care about swapping a couple of words? He\u2019s never been one for details, and now has much bigger things on his mind \u2014 such as war with Iran<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\nTo win S\u00e1nchez over, NATO edited the draft statement to say that the \u201callies\u201d \u2013 instead of \u201cwe\u201d \u2013 commit to spending 5% on defence.\n<\/p>\n

\nSEMANTICS? NOT ENTIRELY<\/strong>. As one insider explained to Firepower, that subtle change adds a bit of ambiguity about whether the pledge applies to everyone \u2014 giving S\u00e1nchez (and others) the wiggle room to spend far less without technically going back on their word. The pledge was already a bit squishy before the rewrite: spending deadlines are years away, and the harshest sanction is limited to naming and shaming. But for politicians looking to claim victory back home, maybe any deal \u2013 no matter how symbolic \u2013 will do.\n<\/p>\n

\nS\u00e1nchez crowed on Sunday night that Spain won\u2019t have to increase its defence budget at all. To achieve NATO capability targets, he said, they\u2019ll spend exactly 2.1% of GDP on defence, \u201cno more and no less.\u201d\n<\/p>\n

\nTARGETS FOR THEE, BUT NOT FOR ME<\/strong>. Trump, meanwhile, declared that the 5% rule should apply to everyone except Washington. \u201cI don\u2019t think we should, but I think they should,\u201d Trump told reporters<\/a> over the weekend. \u201cWe\u2019ve been supporting NATO so long (…) so I don\u2019t think we should, but I think the NATO countries should, absolutely.\u201d Those comments will surely grate on other NATO leaders and raise questions about whether these new commitments are serious \u2014 or just for show. Still, it\u2019s worth noting that the US already meets the new target\u2019s 3.5% threshold for core military spending.\n<\/p>\n

\nA BIT OF GDP FOR KYIV TOO<\/strong>. Ukraine has been largely sidelined ahead of the summit, but Volodymyr Zelenskyy is still hoping to bring something back from The Hague. The Ukrainian president suggested on X<\/a> that \u201ceach ally allocate 0.25% of their GDP\u201d next year to support Ukraine\u2019s defence industry. He added that allies had contributed $43 billion this year. Unlike past NATO summits, this year\u2019s gathering isn\u2019t expected to produce a collective pledge of increased support for Ukraine, due to Trump\u2019s unwillingness.\n<\/p>\n

\nUKRAINE TO SELL DEFENCE TECH ABROAD<\/strong>. Zelenskyy also announced<\/a> that Ukrainian military technology will be available for export by summer, with the goal of launching joint arms production outside Ukraine. Reuters<\/a> reported that negotiations are already underway with Denmark, Norway, Germany, Canada, the United Kingdom, and Lithuania. Earlier this month, Defence Minister Umerov first raised<\/a> the possibility of manufacturing abroad. Such deals could also bring much-needed revenue<\/a> home.\n<\/p>\n

\nFRANCE<\/strong> \u201cwill increasingly ask Kyiv to buy directly from our defence industries via the [G7 loans] channel,\u201d France\u2019s Defence Minister S\u00e9bastien Lecornu told Le Parisien.\n<\/p>\n

\nANOTHER NATO \u2018BRAIN DEATH\u2019 MOMENT?<\/strong> Italy\u2019s Defence Minister, Guido Crosetto, declared that \u201cNATO no longer has any reason to exist<\/a>\u201d in a speech on Friday, arguing that the alliance has lost relevance in a world no longer dominated by Europe and the United States. For most NATO leaders, Russia\u2019s 2022 invasion of Ukraine revived the alliance\u2019s purpose \u2013 after French President Emmanuel Macron infamously warned<\/a> in 2019 that the world was witnessing the \u201cbrain death of NATO.\u201d Like Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, Crosetto is a member of the far-right Brothers of Italy party.\n<\/p>\n

\nANTI-NATO SUMMIT.<\/strong> Former Italian PM and Five Star Movement leader Giuseppe Conte is organising an anti-NATO counter-summit in The Hague on 24 June, hosted at the Dutch parliament building with support from the Dutch Socialist Party, as Euractiv first reported<\/a>. Other attendees include members of Spain\u2019s left-wing political alliance Sumar, which is the junior coalition partner in Pedro S\u00e1nchez\u2019s government. In a letter seen by Euractiv, Conte argues that \u201cpeace and dialogue remain the most valuable investment in security.\u201d\n<\/p>\n

\nTHE NATO (SUMMIT) BILL<\/strong>. The Netherlands expects<\/a> to spend \u20ac183.4 million to host this year\u2019s summit \u2013 roughly the cost of two F-35 fighter jets, or apparently one group photo with Donald Trump (let\u2019s hope he smiles). According to calculations<\/a> by Dutch newspaper AD, that works out to \u20ac1 million a minute, making it the most expensive NATO summit ever. We\u2019ll be watching to see how the Dutch count the cost under NATO\u2019s new spending targets.\n<\/p>\n

\n\"\"<\/p>\n

On your radar<\/strong>
\nEUROPE A SPECTATOR AS MIDDLE EAST BURNS<\/strong>. Middle East conflicts are expected to dominate Monday\u2019s talks among EU foreign ministers. Over the weekend, Europeans called for diplomacy<\/a> after Trump dramatically escalated Israel\u2019s war with Iran by ordering American bombers to strike three key Iranian nuclear sites. Despite the statements, Europe remains largely a bystander.<\/p>\n

\nEIB RECORD SPENDING<\/strong>. The European Investment Bank announced<\/a> record new financing of up to \u20ac100 billion in 2025. As much as 3.5% of that could go to defence investments \u2013 compared to just \u20ac1 billion in 2024. Some funds will support a German military base<\/a> in Lithuania. The EIB’s defence investments remain limited to \u201cdual-use\u201d purposes, meaning they must also serve civilian functions.\n<\/p>\n

\nDANES ON DEFENCE<\/strong>. We counted 32 mentions of the word \u201cdefence\u201d in the programme for Denmark\u2019s upcoming Council presidency \u2013 two more than Poland used last year. The Danes, who had an opt-out on EU defence policy until just three years ago, commit to helping carry out the battery of new EU defence programmes proposed or approved in recent months: \u201cconcluding negotiations\u201d on the European Defence Industrial Programme (EDIP) with the Parliament following Council approval<\/a> later today; prioritising the simplification package<\/a>; backing UK cooperation<\/a>; and expanding defence partnerships with other third countries \u2013 which would pave the way for access to the \u20ac150 billion SAFE scheme<\/a>.\n<\/p>\n

\nANOTHER DEFENCE PACT<\/strong>. Canada will sign a Security and Defence Partnership with the EU this evening \u2013 the latest in a series of such agreements. These pacts have become a cornerstone of EU defence policy and are a prerequisite for non-EU countries to participate in joint purchases under the \u20ac150 billion SAFE scheme<\/a>.\n<\/p>\n

\nSPACE WEEK IN BRUSSELS<\/strong>. A landmark European space policy proposal \u2013 expected to set global standards \u2013 will be unveiled by the Commission on Wednesday. Euractiv has learned that the new EU Space Law will focus on three pillars: standardising satellite construction and launch requirements; improving space cybersecurity and debris monitoring; and boosting Europe\u2019s global competitiveness. Brussels insiders see the initiative as crucial for asserting Europe\u2019s relevance in space, where it currently lacks independent launch capacity and has lagged in innovation. The Commission will also present its Strategy on the Space Economy\n<\/p>\n

News from the capitals
\nIf the UNITED STATES<\/strong> withdraws troops and equipment from Europe, \u201cperhaps some of the objectives [in defence] we had set ourselves for 2030 or 2035 deserve to be accelerated\u201d, FRANCE<\/strong>‘s defence minister, S\u00e9bastien Lecornu, told Le Parisien in an interview. Lecornu said a new wave of military investment is needed to bring Europe\u2019s military might level with Washington. The minister pointed to defence-related investments in space and advanced technologies like quantum computing and artificial intelligence in particular.<\/p>\n

\nBELGIUM<\/strong> struck a deal to buy around 10 NASAMS anti-aircraft missile batteries from Norway\u2019s Kongsberg for roughly \u20ac2.5 billion, L\u2019Echo reports<\/a>. It would be Belgium\u2019s second-largest military purchase ever, behind only its F-35 fighter jet acquisition.\n<\/p>\n

\nGERMANY<\/strong>. A legal analysis prepared for the Bundestag warns that the \u20ac150 billion SAFE joint weapons procurement plan may violate EU treaties \u2013 and could ultimately fail to deliver significant value, Politico<\/a> reports.\n<\/p>\n

\n\u00a0\n<\/p>\n

Situational Awareness<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n

\nEuropean Union <\/strong>\n<\/p>\n