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Back in autumn 2018, I was enjoying a tour of Adnams\u2019 Copper House Distillery in Southwold on the UK\u2019s Suffolk coast, in the company of the wonderful John McCarthy, Adnams\u2019 late engineer-turned-distiller. As we whizzed around the building, we happened to enter a room where members of staff were hurriedly cramming bottles of the distillery\u2019s garishly hued Copper House Pink Gin into boxes, ready for the imminent Christmas rush. Looking at John, I raised a quizzical eyebrow. \u201cI know, I know,\u201d he said. \u201cBut it pays my wages.\u201d<\/p>\n
That was, pretty much, \u2018peak gin\u2019 in the UK \u2013 the culmination of a remarkable period of growth that had been lent even more momentum by the rise of flavoured gins, originating in southern Spain. From Southwold to Seville, gin was simply huge \u2013 and, although some people (me included<\/a>) may have voiced concerns about some of the catalysts of the boom, few were seriously complaining.<\/p>\n Nearly seven years on, gin consumption in the UK has been steadily declining since the first year of the Covid-19 pandemic, echoing similarly depressing trends in Spain. As for the US, well, it\u2019s just never lived up to its promise, despite the efforts of Hendrick\u2019s, Aviation and a few others in the higher price echelons. The association with cheap legacy brands, it seems, has been hard to shake off.<\/p>\n This was the somewhat gloomy backdrop to a global gin trends presentation given by Chris Pitcher, partner at Redburn Atlantic, during The Gin Guild\u2019s annual Ginposium event in London earlier this month. When a category\u2019s stalwart markets take a turn, where should brand owners look for future growth? There\u2019s an answer but it\u2019s by no means straightforward.<\/p>\n According to Pitcher\u2019s presentation, almost all of the immediate growth prospects for gin lie in emerging markets. But some of them, I\u2019d argue, aren\u2019t serious growth prospects at all, or at least not immediately.<\/p>\n Most obviously, the Philippines \u2013 the biggest market of the lot \u2013 remains a destination dominated by low-priced, local brands. And that reliance on locally produced, volume-focused products extends into other territories too, including India and pockets of Africa such as Nigeria.<\/p>\n That could change. As economies develop \u2013 and China\u2019s (hopefully) returns to more robust growth \u2013 opportunities will arise. If a good proportion of consumers have become acquainted with gin in the meantime, that will ease the brand- and category-building process.<\/p>\n And then there\u2019s India. With conditions challenging in China, the US and western Europe, India is everyone\u2019s great hope today \u2013 and gin is no exception. A winning mix of demographic and economic factors, underpinned by urbanisation and an increasingly sophisticated on-premise, is undoubtedly good news. For UK distillers, the recent free trade agreement<\/a> and consequent cuts to import tariffs from 150% to 75%, and eventually to 40%, only adds to the positive momentum.<\/p>\n But \u2013 and you knew there had to be a \u2018but\u2019 \u2013 India remains a complicated place in which to do business and there are plenty of domestic competitors now focused on exploiting Indian consumers\u2019 thirst for premium-and-above products \u2013 not to mention their Modi-inspired pride in the \u2018Made in India\u2019 banner.<\/p>\n For all its opportunities, India illustrates a broader truth about these \u2018emerging markets\u2019 for gin brand owners: the difficulty for those who lack the deep pockets of the multinationals in penetrating them in the first place. Doing so entails a lot of investment, in terms of time, money and patience. This isn\u2019t quite the same as having a chat with the Tesco buyer, or touting your wares around the bars of Barcelona.<\/p>\n
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