![\"Scientists](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/scientists-estimate-th.jpg\" "\\"Scientists")
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Scientists estimate there is a 4.3-percent chance this asteroid will hit the Moon in 2032.<\/p>\n
If a huge asteroid smashes into the moon in 2032, the gigantic explosion would send debris streaming toward Earth that would threaten satellites and create a spectacular meteor shower, according to researchers.<\/p>\n
Earlier this year there were briefly fears that the 60-meter-wide (200-foot-wide) asteroid called 2024 YR4, which is big enough to level a city, would strike Earth on December 22, 2032.<\/p>\n
It was given the highest chance\u20143.1%\u2014of hitting our home planet that scientists have ever measured for such a giant space rock.<\/p>\n
Subsequent observations from telescopes definitively ruled out a direct hit on Earth.<\/p>\n
However, the odds that it will crash into the moon<\/a> have risen to 4.3%, according to data from the James Webb Space Telescope in May.<\/p>\n A new preprint study, which has not been peer-reviewed, is the first to estimate how such a collision could affect Earth.<\/p>\n It would be the largest asteroid to hit the moon in around 5,000 years, lead study author Paul Wiegert of Canada’s University of Western Ontario told AFP.<\/p>\n The impact would be “comparable to a large nuclear explosion in terms of the amount of energy released,” he added.<\/p>\n Up to 100 million kilograms (220 million pounds) of material would shoot out from the moon’s surface, according to a series of simulations run by the researchers.<\/p>\n If the asteroid hit the side of the moon facing Earth\u2014which is roughly a 50% chance\u2014up to 10% of this debris could be pulled in by Earth’s gravity over the following days, they said.<\/p>\n \t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t‘Like a bullet’<\/p>\n Earth’s atmosphere would protect the surface from the millimeter- to centimeter-sized lunar rocks, Weigert said.<\/p>\n But these meteors could be capable of destroying some satellites\u2014and there are expected to be a lot more of those orbiting the planet by 2032.<\/p>\n “A centimeter-sized rock traveling at tens of thousands of meters per second is a lot like a bullet,” Wiegert said.<\/p>\n In the days after the impact, there could be more than 1,000 times the normal number of meteors threatening Earth’s satellites, he added.<\/p>\n Meanwhile, those of us on the ground would be treated to a “spectacular” meteor shower lighting up the night sky, the study said.<\/p>\n But the current odds of a direct hit on the near side of the moon remain at just two percent, Wiegert emphasized.<\/p>\n The asteroid is not expected to be visible again until 2028, so the world will have to wait to find out more.<\/p>\n If a direct hit is eventually found to be likely, humanity probably has enough time to plan a mission to spare the moon.<\/p>\n “I’m sure it will be considered,” Wiegert said.<\/p>\n The asteroid is half as wide and has 10% of the mass of Dimorphos, which NASA’s DART mission smashed into in 2022, successfully changing its trajectory.<\/p>\n If 2024 YR4 is on a collision course<\/a> with the moon, it would be “a good target” for another test of our planetary defenses, Wiegert said.<\/p>\n But if not, trying to deflect something zooming so close to Earth could be a little “dangerous,” he added.<\/p>\n The preprint study, which was published<\/a> on the arXiv database last week, has been submitted to the Astrophysical Journal Letters.<\/p>\n