The Canadian CPI report is first up on the North American calendar today. It comes at a critical time for the Bank of Canada, as the market is pricing in a 37% chance of a cut on July 30. There will still be one more inflation report before the decision but today’s data could swing the odds.<\/p>\n
As for the US calendar, it’s heavy with Fed speakers in including Powell (10 am ET), Williams (1230 pm ET), Kashkari (1:45 pm ET), Collins (2:05 pm ET), Barr (4 pm ET) and Schmid (8:15 pm ET). I wouldn’t except any dovish surprises from the first four names on that list but Schmid will be interesting.<\/p>\n
The Fed chair will be under pressure to drop a dovish hint but I struggle to see how he would pivot so quickly after the FOMC. He’s also a skilled communicator and unlikely to slip up. That said, sometimes the market hears what it wants to hear and even the slightest crack in the door to a July cut might get the market excited.<\/p>\n
Later this year,
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