Since Sunday, the Middle East has lurched from escalating war to fragile ceasefire. A truce seems to be holding, and what US President Donald Trump called \u201cThe 12 Day War\u201d between Israel and Iran seems to be over \u2013 for now.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, Trump, Israel\u2019s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Iran\u2019s leaders have all claimed that the pause in the conflict happened on their terms.<\/p>\n
So, what\u2019s the truth? What did Israel achieve? Did Iran manage to defend its strategic assets? And is the truce a pathway to peace?<\/p>\n
How did events unfold?<\/p>\n
Late on Saturday night, at Israel\u2019s behest, the US entered the Israeli-Iranian war with strikes on Iran\u2019s nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan, \u201ccompletely obliterating\u201d them, in Trump\u2019s words.<\/p>\n
On Monday, Iran struck back, firing missiles at the largest US airbase in the Middle East, Al Udeid in Qatar.<\/p>\n
It appeared as though the Middle East was poised for a broader, longer war.<\/p>\n
But within hours, Trump<\/a> announced on Truth Social, his social media platform, \u201cIt has been fully agreed by and between Israel and Iran that there will be a Complete and Total CEASEFIRE.\u201d<\/p>\n Trump called it \u201cthe 12 Day War \u2026 that could have gone on for years and destroyed the Middle East\u201d.<\/p>\n Four hours<\/a> after the ceasefire was supposed to take effect, Israel launched a strike against Iran in retaliation for what it said were two ballistic missiles entering its airspace, launched from Iran. Both were intercepted. Israel\u2019s retaliation destroyed a radar station near Tehran.<\/p>\n Trump was furious. \u201cI\u2019m really unhappy that Israel went out this morning,\u201d he told reporters.<\/p>\n \u201cWe\u2019ve got two countries that have been fighting so hard and for so long, that they don\u2019t know what the f*** they\u2019re doing.\u201d<\/p>\n Iran said it did not fire those missiles. By 11:30 GMT the ceasefire was back in effect. Trump spoke to Netanyahu.<\/p>\n \u201cISRAEL is not going to attack Iran. All planes will turn around and head home, while doing a friendly \u2018Plane Wave\u2019 to Iran. Nobody will be hurt, the Ceasefire is in effect!\u201d Trump wrote<\/a> on Truth Social.<\/p>\n What did Israel achieve?<\/p>\n Israel has long claimed that Iran is its number one existential threat, but it has never before struck Tehran\u2019s nuclear facilities.<\/p>\n On June 13, it crossed that red line, bombing the surface installations of the Natanz fuel enrichment plant and the Isfahan nuclear technological complex. Iran retaliated by launching drones and missiles at Israel.<\/p>\n Israel had struck nuclear installations in Syria and Iraq before, but it has now proved it can carry out a complex mission much further afield.<\/p>\n It also withstood international accusations<\/a> that its mission wasn\u2019t legal. Israel claims it was anticipatory self-defence, but not everyone agrees that Iran is developing a nuclear bomb, or that it planned to use it against Israel imminently.<\/p>\n \u201cI speak with world leaders and they are very impressed by our determination and the achievements of our forces,\u201d Netanyahu<\/a> said on June 18.<\/p>\n Finally, Israel proved it can convince the US to enter a limited Middle Eastern offensive it has started. In previous wars in 1967 and 1973, the US had provided material support to Israel when it was attacked, but had not assisted it with direct operational involvement.<\/p>\n Netanyahu thanked Trump for \u201cstanding alongside us\u201d.<\/p>\n Operation Rising Lion against Iran took place in the wake of conflicts that Israel has waged against Iran\u2019s regional allies \u2013 the Houthis in Yemen, Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Hamas and Hezbollah have been weakened over the past two years.<\/p>\n Did Iran manage to defend its nuclear programme?<\/p>\n Israel managed to significantly damage surface targets in Iran, and the US claims to have destroyed underground nuclear facilities.<\/p>\n But while satellite photography shows that their missiles hit their mark, there is no independent confirmation available to verify what was destroyed. That will need on-site inspections.<\/p>\n \u201cAt this time, no one \u2013 including the IAEA \u2013 is in a position to have fully assessed the underground damage at Fordow,\u201d said Rafael Grossi, director of the International Atomic Energy Agency, the United Nations nuclear watchdog, on Monday, after the US strikes. \u201cGiven the explosive payload utilized, and the extreme vibration-sensitive nature of centrifuges, very significant damage is expected to have occurred,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n Also unknown are the whereabouts of 400 kilogrammes (880 pounds) of highly enriched uranium that the IAEA has said Iran now possesses.<\/p>\n