{"id":212041,"date":"2025-06-25T02:58:17","date_gmt":"2025-06-25T02:58:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/212041\/"},"modified":"2025-06-25T02:58:17","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T02:58:17","slug":"the-economic-impact-of-brexit-nine-years-on-was-the-consensus-right","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/212041\/","title":{"rendered":"The Economic Impact of Brexit, Nine Years On: Was the Consensus Right?"},"content":{"rendered":"

23rd June 2025<\/p>\n

Authors: John Springford<\/a> <\/p>\n

\"\"\/<\/p>\n

A new report from John Springford, commissioned by the Constitution Society and the Federal Trust<\/a>, analyses the economic impact of Brexit nine years after the UK voted to leave the EU. <\/p>\n

The Economic Impact of Brexit performs a \u2018Brexit audit\u2019, using a wide range of publications. As a starting point, it takes the Office of Budget Responsibility\u2019s (OBR) view of the economic impact \u2013 that withdrawal would reduce productivity, and thus GDP by about 4 per cent compared to a Remain scenario; trade by about 15 per cent, and have a sizeable impact on investment and a smaller one on losses of GDP stemming from lower net migration. It then surveys the other research to test the OBR\u2019s views.\u00a0<\/p>\n

After considering all of the evidence, the report argues that the consensus view \u2013 that Brexit\u2019s economic impact would be negative and large \u2013 has been borne out. The 2019-2024 parliament raised taxes by around \u00a3100 billion, and if we take the OBR\u2019s 4 per cent loss of productivity to be the true figure, \u00a340 billion of those tax rises were needed because of EU withdrawal.<\/p>\n

This publication presents the personal views of the author and not those of The Constitution Society, which publishes it as a contribution to debate on this important subject.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"23rd June 2025 Authors: John Springford A new report from John Springford, commissioned by the Constitution Society and…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":212042,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5226],"tags":[802,748,2000,299,5187,1699,4884,16,15],"class_list":{"0":"post-212041","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-brexit","8":"tag-brexit","9":"tag-britain","10":"tag-eu","11":"tag-europe","12":"tag-european","13":"tag-european-union","14":"tag-great-britain","15":"tag-uk","16":"tag-united-kingdom"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@uk\/114741766154670871","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/212041","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=212041"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/212041\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/212042"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=212041"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=212041"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=212041"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}