People shop at a grocery store in Manhattan on April 01, 2025, in New York City.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Spencer Platt | Getty Images<\/p>\n
A day without major tariff developments from U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration is, for markets, a day of cautious optimism (or at least what passes as “optimism” in such unusual times). There was breathing room on Monday for markets to make tentative moves upward, especially after the news, out late Friday, of a last-minute exception for electronics from so-called reciprocal tariffs.\u00a0<\/p>\n
White House officials are still making their rounds on major news channels to preach the sense of Trump’s economic policy. The latest to do so is National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, who, on Fox Business, said Monday the country would “100% not” fall into a recession this year.<\/p>\n
Consumers don’t share that faith. A Federal Reserve survey, conducted in March and released Monday, is the latest in a series of consumer surveys that show sentiment over the economy slumping. Any gains in the market, then, could last only as far as tariff don’t run further amok and cause economic damage, despite White House officials’ attempts to reassure on the latter front.<\/p>\n
What you need to know today<\/p>\n U.S. markets made tentative gains Hassett says no chance of recession Volatility from zero-day options ‘Transitory’ inflation from tariffs Nvidia to build supercomputer in U.S. [PRO] ‘Prepare to be fooled’ on tariffs: Morgan Stanley
<\/strong>U.S. stocks rose Monday<\/a>, aided by a slight recovery in tech names on news of a tariff exemption for electronic goods. The S&P 500<\/a> rose 0.79%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average<\/a> climbed 0.78% and the Nasdaq Composite<\/a> advanced 0.64%. Europe’s regional Stoxx 600<\/a> index added 2.69%<\/a>. Novo Nordisk<\/a> rose 3.7% after competitor Pfizer<\/a>\u00a0scrapped the development<\/a>\u00a0of its experimental daily weight-loss pill over a liver injury in one patient.<\/p>\n
<\/strong>U.S. National Economic Council Director\u00a0Kevin Hassett\u00a0said Monday that “more than 10” countries had made “very good, amazing”\u00a0trade\u00a0deal offers to the U.S. He also said<\/a> that there was no chance at all<\/a> that the U.S. will experience a\u00a0recession\u00a0in 2025. A Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey released the same day \u2014 but conducted before April 2 \u2014 showed consumer worries in March growing<\/a> over inflation, unemployment and the stock market.<\/p>\n
<\/strong>Zero-day-to-expiration options<\/a> are partly to blame for the wild swings in the stock market recently. Zero-day options, which are contracts\u00a0that expire the same day they’re traded, have surged 23% in trading volume from the start of the year to April, according to JPMorgan<\/a> data. “We find that 0DTE\u2009(+1DTE) have been instrumental in driving more\u00a0intraday\u00a0volatility, Maxwell Grinacoff, UBS<\/a>‘ head of U.S. equity derivatives research, said in a note.<\/p>\n
<\/strong>Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said Monday he expects the effects of Trump’s tariffs on prices to be “transitory.” The Fed last used that term to describe the inflation spike in 2021, which, as we know, has yet to ebb to its target of 2%. “But just because it didn’t work out once does not mean you should never think that way again,” Waller said, adding that the Fed could cut rates if inflation rises again<\/a>.<\/p>\n
<\/strong>Nvidia<\/a> said Monday it plans to produce up to $500 billion of artificial intelligence infrastructure in the U.S.<\/a> via its manufacturing partnerships over the next four years.\u00a0Its Blackwell AI chips have started production in Phoenix at\u00a0Taiwan Semiconductor\u00a0plants, the chipmaker wrote<\/a> in a blog post. Nvidia is also building manufacturing plants in Texas to produce AI super computers \u2014 the first time Nvidia will make one entirely in the U.S.<\/p>\n
<\/strong>Despite recent concessions on tariffs by Trump, Morgan Stanley<\/a> cautioned investors not to let their guard down. “Investors should prepare to be fooled many more times<\/a>,” the firm’s strategists led by Matthew Hornbach said in a note to clients titled “Fool Me Once, Shame On You. Fool Me Twice, Shame On Me.”<\/p>\n