{"id":217711,"date":"2025-06-27T04:41:17","date_gmt":"2025-06-27T04:41:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/217711\/"},"modified":"2025-06-27T04:41:17","modified_gmt":"2025-06-27T04:41:17","slug":"canadian-dollar-falls-to-post-brexit-low-against-pound","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/217711\/","title":{"rendered":"Canadian Dollar Falls to post-Brexit Low Against Pound"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"\/<\/p>\n

Image \u00a9 Adobe Stock<\/p>\n

The Pound to Canadian Dollar exchange rate (GBP\/CAD) is at 1.8744, a level last seen in June 2016.<\/p>\n

The Canadian Dollar is advancing on the U.S. Dollar, but clearly underperforming its G10 rivals, perhaps due the sudden drop in oil prices witnessed this week.<\/p>\n

Canada is a major oil producer, and is often linked to oil prices as a result, meaning it found some solid bids during the recent Middle East flare-up.<\/p>\n

However, oil collapsed in price following the announcement of a ceasefire in hostilities between Iran and Israel, and it looks like the Canadian Dollar has followed suit.<\/p>\n

“CAD has been the underperformer on the back of the 15% fall in oil,” says JP Morgan’s trading desk.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Above: CAD\/GBP (top) and Brent crude oil prices.<\/p>\n

The chart suggests a decent correlation between the CAD vs. GBP rate’s performance and that of brent crude. If the risk premium can be removed from oil further, we could expect more losses.<\/p>\n

Also, it’s clear that the falling U.S. Dollar<\/a> is exerting a magnetic pull on its North American cousin, as the two geographical neighbours also tend to be tied at the hip on the currency scoreboard.<\/p>\n

Just as oil prices matter for a major oil exporter, so does the performance of your closest and most important trading partner.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Above: GBP\/CAD and GBP\/USD have trended in the same direction this year.<\/p>\n

With oil and the U.S. Dollar under pressure, so we see GBP\/CAD rising to levels last seen on the cusp of the Brexit referendum, which happened nine years ago this month.<\/p>\n

Key risks to those banking on more gains are obvious: a USD rebound and another surge in oil prices.<\/p>\n

There’s also some food for thought from analysts at TD Securities, who see CAD as being undervalued at current levels relative to the likes of the European currencies.<\/p>\n

“CAD screens as cheap on our short-term fair value metrics. Positioning in the currency has been improving but remains relatively clean, especially vs. some G10 peers. We have a constructive CAD outlook in H2,” says TD Securities in a recent FX research note.<\/p>\n

Although the Canadian unit is struggling against many, we are told by Shaun Osborne, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank, that its prospects against the U.S. Dollar remain constructive.<\/p>\n

“There is room for further improvement in the CAD… Lower U.S. rates are helping compress US\/Canada spreads meaningfully.”<\/p>\n

The analyst sees that the two-year cash bond and swap spreads have narrowed sharply this week to trade back to the narrowest yield advantage (just over 100bps in both cases) for the USD since December.<\/p>\n

Given money tends to go where bond yields are higher, this convergence limits the advantage the U.S. Dollar has enjoyed in fixed income markets for some years now.
“The 2Y cash bond spread is back under its 200-day MA for the first time since last March, suggesting a further, meaningful narrowing in the yield gap may develop. Narrower spreads are driving our fair value estimate for spot lower\u20141.3599 this morning\u2014and should help drive a little more strength in the CAD in the short run. Broader USD weakness and the drop in spreads will limit scope for USD rebounds from here,” says Osborne.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Image \u00a9 Adobe Stock The Pound to Canadian Dollar exchange rate (GBP\/CAD) is at 1.8744, a level last…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":217712,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5226],"tags":[802,748,2000,299,5187,1699,4884,16,15],"class_list":{"0":"post-217711","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-brexit","8":"tag-brexit","9":"tag-britain","10":"tag-eu","11":"tag-europe","12":"tag-european","13":"tag-european-union","14":"tag-great-britain","15":"tag-uk","16":"tag-united-kingdom"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/217711","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=217711"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/217711\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/217712"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=217711"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=217711"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=217711"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}