The United States continues to carry global economic growth on its shoulders, according to purchasing managers index (PMI) data reported by S&P Global this week. In the weak ahead, analog data tracking China\u2019s performance is expected to underscore as much yet again.<\/p>\n
The US, China, and the Eurozone account for a hefty 58% of global gross domestic product (GDP). Much of the remaining 42% are vendor countries that rely on feeding demand from the \u201cbig three\u201d economies to generate their contributions to overall growth. If all three of the engines powering demand misfire a worldwide recession is inevitable.<\/p>\n
PMI data to show China\u2019s economy probably remains near standstill<\/p>\n
The latest batch of S&P Global data put the Eurozone near standstill for a second consecutive month in June. The composite index subsuming the manufacturing and service sectors registered at 50.2 for a second consecutive month, a hair above the 50 \u201cboom-bust\u201d level where economic activity is neither growing nor contracting.<\/p>\n
![\"China](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/1751012953_727_China_PMI_-_CFLP.png\")
CFLP, NBS<\/p>\n
The China Federation for Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP) alongside the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) are expected to produce similar results with Beijing\u2019s official PMI data. The composite gauge here is expected to come in at 50.7 in June. Despite a slight uptick from 50.4 in May, this would still make for near-idle growth conditions.<\/p>\n
These soggy readings are hardly unusual. Eurozone composite PMI has averaged 50.1 for the past 12 months. China\u2019s CFLP composite PMI has averaged 50.7 over the same period. Another version of the same measure from S&P Global and Caixin has averaged a seemingly more encouraging 51.5, but that mostly reflects higher volatility in the data.<\/p>\n
The US is the single point of failure for global growth. Is it wobbling?<\/p>\n
US PMI figures paint a decidedly brighter picture. The economy\u2019s performance has undeniably cooled since the second half of last year, when the booming service sector produced the fastest expansion in two years. Nevertheless, with a composite PMI reading at 52.8 in June, activity growth looks solid and near the top of the range for 2025 so far.<\/p>\n
In all, this means that global growth hinges on that of the US, with no safety net from Europe or China in the event that something goes awry. As it happens, analytics from Citigroup warn that US economic data has increasingly disappointed relative to baseline forecasts over the past month. The stage-setting for a global recession may be taking shape.<\/p>\n
![\"World](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/World_-_Citi_Surprise_Index.png\")
MacroMicro<\/p>\n
Ilya Spivak<\/strong>,\u00a0tastylive head of global macro, has 15 years of experience in trading strategy, and he specializes in identifying thematic moves in currencies, commodities, interest rates and equities. He hosts\u00a0#<\/a>Macro Money<\/a>\u00a0and co-hosts\u00a0Overtime,<\/a>\u00a0Monday-Thursday. @Ilyaspivak<\/p>\n For live daily programming, market news and commentary<\/strong>, visit\u00a0#<\/a>tastylive<\/a>\u00a0or the YouTube channels tastylive (for options traders), and\u00a0tastyliveTrending<\/a>\u00a0for stocks, futures, forex & macro.<\/p>\n