EUR\/USD daily<\/p>\n
The euro has perked up to a fresh session high, which is also a fresh high since 2021 at 1.1747.<\/p>\n
The pair has risen about 30 pips since the US released PCE data for May. The report showed slightly hotter core inflation than anticipated while spending\/income both unexpectedly deteriorated. That’s the kind of data that could be put the Fed in a bind. If the economy is slowing it calls for rate cuts but the Fed can’t lower rates if inflation is also creeping up and remains above target.<\/p>\n
For now, Fed officials have signalled cut quarter-point cuts in the remainder of this year via the dot plot, but that was a narrow majority with many seeing just one cut. In contrast, the market has priced in 65 bps in easing, perhaps sensing that the slower economy will ultimately win out.<\/p>\n
Notably, this isn’t the first sign of consumer softening this year. Target last month highlighted <\/a>a weakening consumer and yesterday, Circle-K owner Couche-Tard highlighted a struggling US consumer in the ‘lower end’ and ‘lower middle end’.<\/p>\n “Softness in traffic and fuel demand in the United States as low-income consumers were impacted by challenging economic conditions,” said CFO Filipe Da Silva.<\/p>\n To be fair, many other companies have said the consumer is fine but this week’s US Q1 GDP report also showed a weaker consumer.<\/p>\n Later this year,
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