{"id":221579,"date":"2025-06-28T14:55:09","date_gmt":"2025-06-28T14:55:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/221579\/"},"modified":"2025-06-28T14:55:09","modified_gmt":"2025-06-28T14:55:09","slug":"bitcoins-q3-outlook-uncertain-is-another-liquidation-event-coming","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/221579\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin\u2019s Q3 outlook uncertain &#8211; Is another liquidation event coming?"},"content":{"rendered":"<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Bitcoin is pulling back, but interestingly, there are no classic signs of overheating.<\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Will speculative positioning continue to dominate the trend?<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>As Q2 draws to a close, <a href=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/category\/bitcoin-news\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\">Bitcoin [BTC]<\/a> has posted a solid 30% quarterly return, marking a sharp acceleration from Q1\u2019s 11.82% net loss.<\/p>\n<p>Still, despite printing a new all-time high, BTC fell short of replicating Q4 2024\u2019s explosive rally, when the asset nearly doubled and locked in a 47.73% ROI.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Sure, market FUD played a key role. However, a recent <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/glassnode\/status\/1938567997733413328\/photo\/1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow external noreferrer\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">Glassnode report<\/a> points to a more structural divergence \u2014 One with potential implications for how Bitcoin\u2019s future rallies unfold.<\/p>\n<p><b>BTC pulls back as leverage overtakes spot demand<\/b><\/p>\n<p>No question, the post-Liberation FUD in early April shook the market, dragging Bitcoin down to $74,393, a multi-month low. But in hindsight, that move offered a prime entry for strategic buyers.<\/p>\n<p>BTC rallied nearly 50% off that low, printing a new all-time high, but what stood out was the manner in which it happened.<\/p>\n<p> There was no RSI blowout, no spike in retail-driven euphoria, and no signs of classic overheating in spot markets.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>On the surface, this looked like a structurally healthy rally. But under the hood, Futures markets Open interest <a href=\"https:\/\/www.coinglass.com\/BitcoinOpenInterest\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow external noreferrer\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">exploded<\/a> to $81 billion, adding nearly $30 billion in under two months.<\/p>\n<p>As a result, every Bitcoin dip triggered a spike in long liquidations, reinforcing a feedback loop.<\/p>\n<p>Instead of orderly retracements, the market delivered aggressive unwinds, driven not by spot selling but by excessive leverage getting flushed.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Bitcoin-Long-Liquidations-All-Exchanges-All-Symbol-2.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-506159\" class=\"wp-image-506159 size-full\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml,%3Csvg%20xmlns=\" http:=\"\" alt=\"Bitcoin OI\" width=\"4000\" height=\"2250\" data-lazy- data-lazy- data-lazy-src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Bitcoin-Long-Liquidations-All-Exchanges-All-Symbol-2.png\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p id=\"caption-attachment-506159\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source: CryptoQuant<\/p>\n<p>If this trend persists, liquidation patterns could soon resemble the late-January to early-April cycle, where leverage resets dictated Bitcoin\u2019s every downside move.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s also worth noting that Q3 has historically <a href=\"https:\/\/www.coinglass.com\/today\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow external noreferrer\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">underperformed<\/a>, with Bitcoin posting minimal returns in the past three years. <\/p>\n<p>Also add in the macro risks, and suddenly, that Futures-to-Spot Volume ratio becomes a critical lens.<\/p>\n<p><b>Can Bitcoin lead when volume refuses to follow?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/glassnode\/status\/1938537802221637874\/photo\/1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow external noreferrer\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">Glassnode data<\/a> sheds light on why Bitcoin\u2019s rally to $111k didn\u2019t exhibit typical signs of market overheating.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Despite the new all-time high, spot volume remained muted at $7.7 billion, significantly below the peaks observed in prior bull cycles.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/1751122509_193_3.jpg\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-506188\" class=\"wp-image-506188 size-full\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml,%3Csvg%20xmlns=\" http:=\"\" alt=\"BTC\" width=\"2400\" height=\"1350\" data-lazy- data-lazy- data-lazy-src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/1751122509_193_3.jpg\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p id=\"caption-attachment-506188\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source: Glassnode<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/glassnode\/status\/1938567997733413328\/photo\/1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow external noreferrer\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">Futures volume<\/a> kept climbing, pointing to a rally driven not by broad spot participation, but by speculative capital rotating through derivatives markets.<\/p>\n<p>This structural imbalance reinforces AMBCrypto\u2019s thesis: Leverage continues to drive Bitcoin\u2019s price discovery this cycle, outpacing sustained retail demand.<\/p>\n<p>That makes Bitcoin\u2019s early Q3 feel a lot more fragile. And if traders keep piling into leverage, another Q1-style flush isn\u2019t off the table.<\/p>\n<p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tNext: <a href=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/pengu-jumps-22-on-etf-buzz-why-are-traders-still-betting-against-it\/\" rel=\"prev noopener\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" target=\"_blank\">PENGU jumps 22% on ETF buzz \u2013 Why are traders still betting against it?<\/a>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Bitcoin is pulling back, but interestingly, there are no classic signs of overheating. Will speculative positioning continue to&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":221580,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[52,51,16,15],"class_list":{"0":"post-221579","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-business","8":"tag-ambcrypto","9":"tag-business","10":"tag-uk","11":"tag-united-kingdom"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/221579","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=221579"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/221579\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/221580"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=221579"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=221579"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=221579"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}