\u201cClimate is our biggest war. Climate is here for the next 100 years. We need to focus and \u2026 not allow those [other] wars to take our attention away from the bigger fight that we need to have.\u201d<\/p>\n
Ana Toni, the chief executive of Cop30, the UN climate summit to be held in Brazil<\/a> this November, is worried. With only four months before the crucial global summit, the world\u2019s response to the climate crisis is in limbo.<\/p>\n Fewer than 30 of the 200 countries that will gather in the Amazonian city of Bel\u00e9m have drafted plans, required by the 2015 Paris agreement<\/a>, <\/a>to stave off the worst ravages of climate breakdown<\/a>.<\/p>\n And that crisis is escalating. In the last two years, for the first time, global land temperatures soared to more than 1.5C above pre-industrial levels \u2013 breaching the limit that governments have promised at multiple climate meetings to keep.<\/p>\n Meanwhile, the US president, Donald Trump, has withdrawn from the Paris agreement and is intent on expanding fossil fuels and dismantling carbon-cutting efforts<\/a>. The EU is mired in tense arguments over its plans. China, the world\u2019s biggest emitter of greenhouse gases, is rumoured to be considering weak targets that would condemn the world to much greater heating.<\/p>\n And the attention of world leaders is elsewhere, as the conflict in the Middle East threatens to spiral further. Poor countries are labouring under a mountain of debt, and the continuing cost of living crisis in many countries is fuelling populism and a backlash against green policy<\/a>.<\/p>\n Toni, a respected Brazilian economist, told the Guardian: \u201cThere\u2019s no doubt that the wars that we\u2019ve seen \u2013 military wars and trade wars \u2026 are very damaging \u2013 physically, economically, socially \u2013 and they divert the direction and the attention from climate.\u201d<\/p>\n Vulnerable countries fear their concerns will be lost amid the push for militarisation. \u201cSpending more on defence means spending less on climate,\u201d said Michai Robertson, adviser to the Alliance of Small Island States (Aosis).<\/p>\n But the questions for Bel\u00e9m cannot be ignored. Can the world cut greenhouse gas emissions far enough and fast enough to stabilise global temperatures? Is the lack of progress inevitable when hundreds of countries are trying to agree a way forward, or are more sinister forces at play, trying to throw up roadblocks? Has a recent meeting in Bonn done anything to bring more resolution and collaboration?<\/p>\n Beyond 1.5C of heating<\/a>, the impacts of climate chaos \u2013 heatwaves, sea level rises, species die-offs, droughts, floods and storms \u2013 will rapidly become catastrophic and irreversible. And we now know that the world could already be traversing vital \u201ctipping points<\/a>\u201d, beyond which runaway climate change will be impossible to recover from within human timeframes.<\/p>\n Anna Rasmussen, the chief negotiator for Aosis, said: \u201cAround the world, the \u2018unprecedented\u2019 has become our new norm<\/a>. The economics of small island states are stymied by disasters we did not cause. Not even a year ago, the Caribbean was ravaged by Hurricane Beryl, the earliest category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic ever recorded.\u201d<\/p>\n Nationally determined contributions<\/p>\n Since the Paris agreement was signed in 2015, global greenhouse gas emissions have continued to rise. Temperatures are affected by the cumulative quantity of carbon in the atmosphere, so every additional tonne counts: scientists have now calculated that we can only carry on producing current levels of carbon dioxide for two more years<\/a>, ensuring the breach of the 1.5C limit becomes permanent.<\/p>\n But while temperatures have soared, and weather records have tumbled, any sense of urgency inside the negotiating halls seems to have cooled. Two weeks of preliminary talks, intended to lay the groundwork for Cop30, have just finished in Bonn<\/a>. They started two days late because countries could not agree an agenda, and ended without clear negotiating texts for the key points.<\/p>\n Some of the frustrating lack of progress is inevitable, as countries grapple with geopolitics and the complexity of getting nearly 200 governments in line. But several negotiators told the Guardian they saw more sinister motives in play \u2013 deliberate attempts by some recalcitrant countries or their allies, usually fossil fuel producers, to throw up roadblocks.<\/p>\n \u201cThese are not accidents we are seeing, they are attempts to slow things down, no question,\u201d said one. At one point, according to an observer, a key discussion degenerated into speculation about the buttons on a putative website presenting data, rather than addressing the substantive points.<\/p>\n At the core of the Cop30 summit will be the national plans on emissions. Known as \u201cnationally determined contributions\u201d<\/a> (NDCs), these are the bedrock of the Paris agreement, setting out not just overall targets on how far governments intend to cut emissions over the next decade, but also indicating what measures might be taken in different sectors to meet those goals, such as boosting renewable energy or improving efficiency.<\/p>\n The Brazilian hosts of the Cop30<\/a> summit are urging governments to finish their NDCs by September, so the UN can assess them ahead of the scheduled start of Cop30 in November.<\/p>\n \u201cWe are really far from where we need to go, even in quantity of NDCs, let alone how ambitious [they are] and the quality of them,\u201d Toni told the Guardian. \u201cI don\u2019t think there is any excuse [for countries not to come up with new NDCs]. We are expecting NDCs that are improved, both in terms of ambitions and on their quality.\u201d<\/p>\n Most closely watched will be China. The world\u2019s second biggest economy and biggest emitter of greenhouse gases is also the global renewable energy powerhouse<\/a>. China\u2019s green economy has outstripped all expectations, with about a third of electricity now coming from clean sources, and renewable generation capacity on track to double by 2030, compared with 2022 levels.<\/p>\n China is also the biggest exporter of renewable energy components and electric vehicles, so stands to benefit from other countries setting stiffer targets on emissions. Experts believe that China<\/a> could halve its emissions by 2035 without difficulty \u2013 yet the government is thought to be considering tabling reductions of only about 10%.<\/p>\n Coal is the reason. While coal fell to its lowest share of electricity generation on record in May 2024, this year a surge of approvals of new coal-fired power plants<\/a>, and investment in mining, has alarmed analysts.<\/p>\n skip past newsletter promotion<\/a><\/p>\n The planet’s most important stories. Get all the week’s environment news – the good, the bad and the essential<\/p>\n Privacy Notice: <\/strong>Newsletters may contain info about charities, online ads, and content funded by outside parties. For more information see our Privacy Policy<\/a>. We use Google reCaptcha to protect our website and the Google Privacy Policy<\/a> and Terms of Service<\/a> apply.<\/p>\n after newsletter promotion<\/p>\n Gao Yuhe, of Greenpeace East Asia, said China could cause its emissions to peak this year if renewable energy growth continues. \u201cThe year 2025 marks a pivotal moment in the country\u2019s energy transition,\u201d she said. \u201cThere is already enough existing capacity to meet today\u2019s peak demand. Approving a new wave of large-scale coal projects risks creating overcapacity, stranded assets, and higher transition costs. That will ultimately undermine progress toward a cleaner, more flexible power system.\u201d<\/p>\n The EU is locked in tense negotiations over its carbon target for 2040, which will be thrashed out next week. That target, which is expected to involve a cut in carbon of at least 90% compared with 1990 levels, would be the steepest yet presented, but arguments are raging over whether, and how much of, this could be met by trading carbon credits<\/a> with other countries. When the 2040 figure is agreed, it must then also be translated into a commensurate 2035 goal \u2013 the end date for the current commitment period under the Paris agreement \u2013 and published along with further policy details as a fully fledged NDC in September.<\/p>\n Other countries, including major emerging economies such as India, are still to submit their plans. \u201cThere is a lot of watching and waiting going on,\u201d says Arunabha Ghosh, the chief executive of the Council on Energy, Environment and Water, a prominent thinktank in India and one of the Cop30 envoys chosen by Brazil to support the aims of the talks. \u201cWe should be judging countries on implementation \u2013 climate leaders are those who get things done, rather than those who say things.\u201d<\/p>\n A few countries have already presented their NDCs. The UK\u2019s is judged to be fairly ambitious, with an 81% cut in emissions compared to 1990 levels by 2035. Canada\u2019s effort and Japan\u2019s have both been found \u201cinsufficient\u201d, however, by the Climate Action Tracker, which monitors the levels of countries\u2019 emissions reduction.<\/p>\n A further problem is that none of the NDCs so far, which are pegged to 2035 or 2040, have contained revisions of countries\u2019 existing near-term targets. Current NDCs, set at Cop26 in Glasgow in 2021, are inadequate to stay within 1.5C<\/a>. At Glasgow, countries agreed that the \u201cratchet\u201d \u2013 the system for updating NDCs \u2013 should allow for the upward revision of targets more frequently than the five-yearly system laid out in the Paris agreement.<\/p>\n Disappointingly, no countries have availed themselves of the opportunity, said Niklas H\u00f6hne, of the NewClimate Institute. \u201c[To stay within the 1.5C limit] needs drastic reductions. None of the NDCs on the table have updated 2030 numbers. But if we do not do more by 2030, it will be very difficult to catch up later.\u201d<\/p>\n Last year\u2019s conference of the parties (Cop) focused on finance, and that will also play a major role this year. Developing countries need assistance from the rich world, to help them cut emissions and cope with the impacts of extreme weather. At Cop29, they were assured of $1.3tn a year by 2035<\/a>, with $300bn of this coming in the form of public finance from developed countries.<\/p>\n Those numbers will be harder to reach now that the US has pulled out of climate finance and other forms of overseas aid. Poor countries want to see concrete plans for how the financial flows will be reached, and Brazil is working with last year\u2019s host, Azerbaijan, on a \u201cBaku to Bel\u00e9m roadmap\u201d due in October.<\/p>\n Yalchin Rafiyev, the chief negotiator for Azerbaijan at Cop29 last year in Baku, warned that not enough was being done to meet the financial commitments made last year, particularly from the taxpayer-funded development banks. \u201cWe have seen very low-profile engagement of MDBs [multilateral development banks, such as the World Bank] in climate-related issues,\u201d he told the Guardian in an interview. \u201cWe have opened the Baku to Bel\u00e9m roadmap to $1.3tn for wider stakeholders for their written submissions. So far, we have received 102 submissions, and only two of them are from MDBs. That\u2019s quite surprising, because they have always expressed their interest to be part of the process.\u201d<\/p>\n Juan Carlos Monterrey G\u00f3mez, the chief negotiator for Panama, said being able to show substantial progress on finance was crucial. \u201cWe need to define what is the roadmap to close the finance gap towards developing nations, because if we don\u2019t address that, if we don\u2019t fill that gap, if we don\u2019t provide these resources, then we cannot expect developing nations to fulfil the goals of the Paris agreement,\u201d he said. \u201cIt\u2019s all about the money.\u201d<\/p>\n Brazil\u2019s agenda for Cop30 also gives little room for what many activists still see as the key question: fossil fuels. At Cop28, in Dubai, countries made a landmark commitment to \u201ctransition away from fossil fuels\u201d<\/a>. At Cop29, attempts to flesh that out with a timeframe and details of what it would mean were stymied by opposition from petrostates, including Saudi Arabia.<\/p>\n