![\"Job](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/1751355921_253_960x0.jpg\")
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A now hiring and help wanted sign is posted in Morrisville, Pa., Monday, June 9, 2025. (AP … More Photo\/Matt Rourke)<\/p>\n
Copyright 2025 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.<\/p>\n
Many observers, myself included, were surprised by data this past month showing that employment rates among young college graduates<\/a> were worse than the rates for the population overall. It\u2019s a rare and troubling situation for current, future, and recently graduated students, and also a troubling dynamic for colleges and universities.<\/p>\n The two most important questions to ask are why, and whether this is a temporary and insignificant blip, or the start of a long-end trend.<\/p>\n The truth is that we don\u2019t know the answer to the first question. Speculation has included that large companies that traditionally bring on new college graduates are waiting to see how their staffing needs develop with new AI tools<\/a> \u2013 tools that have been sold as ways to eliminate or reduce employees. That could be.<\/p>\n Although, as I speculated<\/a>, it\u2019s possible that recent college graduates, and especially those who are getting their degrees this year or last year, simply did not learn very much. Over the last five years, these graduates have had online learning forced by Covid-19, and the arrival of ChatGPT, which surveys show is being used nearly universally by students to outsource the work of learning. It\u2019s possible, I guessed, that a college graduate today doesn\u2019t know how to do much beyond asking AI for the answer. And, if that\u2019s the case, that\u2019s not a skill any business would pay to have. They can just ask AI themselves.<\/p>\n But both are theories. We can\u2019t know for sure what\u2019s driving the dip in employment among recent college grads. And in reality, it\u2019s probably not just one thing anyway.<\/p>\n The bigger question is whether this is a long, deep trend or a freakish shooting star.<\/p>\n My money is on the table closer to shooting star than long trend.<\/p>\n One reason is that even the most consistent data will \u2013 even should \u2013 show an occasional deviation.<\/p>\n Steph Curry, perhaps the best shot-maker in the history of the NBA, has had more than ten games in his career in which he made exactly two baskets all game<\/a> \u2013 each game resulting in a shooting percentage below 17%. After such a bad showing, do you bet that Curry will continue missing? Or do you bet with his history, that Curry can shoot and score at elite levels?<\/p>\n What we\u2019re seeing now in these labor statistics for recent college graduates is deeply against the history of the data \u2013 the first time we\u2019ve seen it in a decade or better and one of just two or three such occasions in about 35 years. In other words, this data point is far less common than Steph Curry having a terrible shooting night.<\/p>\n Over the history of the data, the answer is unambiguous. For generations, those with a college degree have earned more money, had more economic ascent and stability, and enjoyed higher rates of employment than those without a degree. Historically, and still today, a college degree is one of the best investments anyone can make, paying for itself many, many times over. And not just financially.<\/p>\n Another reason the safe bet is in favor of college is that those investing in a college education are not backing away. In fact, the buying line is growing, indicating that those closest to the outcome are increasingly bullish on college.<\/p>\n Although it did not get much attention at the time, in January, total college enrollment passed pre-pandemic levels<\/a>. New enrollments were up nearly 6%.<\/p>\n