The 69-year-old\u2019s first term as leader is also the last opportunity, so the dominant narrative here, for Germany\u2019s political centre to hold.<\/p>\n
And those close to the new German leader say he began correcting his positions after a series of shocks that began five days after his election victory.<\/p>\n
In his new book Democracy\u2019s Last Chance, German political writer Robin Alexander argues that Merz \u2013 a lifelong Atlanticist \u2013 was deeply shaken by Donald Trump\u2019s Oval Office dressing down of Ukraine\u2019s president Volodymyr Zelenskiy.<\/p>\n
Alexander writes that, for Merz, something significant happened in Washington on February 28th: \u201cThe Americans are not just threatening to hang out Ukraine to dry, but all its allies.\u201d<\/p>\n
This was the final trigger for Merz to perform a radical U-turn and push to loosen restrictive debt rules \u2013 contrary to his campaign promises \u2013 that includes what is effectively a blank cheque on defence.<\/p>\n
Increasing Germany\u2019s pure defence spending to 3.5 per cent of GDP is, analysts agree, as historic and far-reaching moment as ex-ECB president Mario Draghi\u2019s \u201cwhatever it takes\u201d speech in the euro crisis or the \u201cZeitenwende\u201d (watershed) address of Olaf Scholz after Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine.<\/p>\n
But it is not just on defence, debt and the transatlantic relationship where Merz-led transformation is emerging: Israel\u2019s ongoing blockade of Gaza has seen a toughening of rhetoric from Berlin, previously unthinkable in the Christian Democratic Union<\/a> (CDU), if not \u2013 as yet \u2013 matched by action.<\/p>\n But elections are won or lost at home. After two months in a domestic political holding pattern, with an economy in its third year of recession, Merz is anxious to try some actual governing before the summer break.<\/p>\n On Wednesday he will chair a key meeting with his centre-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) partners where coalition reform aspirations meet Berlin\u2019s new political reality.<\/p>\n Expectations have been building since the centre-right CDU, along with its Bavarian CSU allies, won last February\u2019s snap election with 28.5 per cent support. The centre-left SPD finished third with a disastrous 16.4 per cent, just enough votes to return to power \u2013 this time as a junior partner.<\/p>\n Berlin\u2019s political honeymoon, such as it was, ends on Wednesday when the coalition members meet to fill in the awkward detail of their vague shotgun coalition agreement.<\/p>\n
![\"SPD](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/CVTPT52WIMSY7EYYHB77YUUYEM.jpg\")
SPD co-leader Lars Klingbeil has presented spending estimates for the new government term with total borrowing of a record \u20ac850 billion. Photograph: Filip Singer\/EPA <\/p>\n