{"id":236108,"date":"2025-07-04T00:51:07","date_gmt":"2025-07-04T00:51:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/236108\/"},"modified":"2025-07-04T00:51:07","modified_gmt":"2025-07-04T00:51:07","slug":"aussie-holds-at-highs-despite-us-jobs-surprise","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/236108\/","title":{"rendered":"Aussie holds at highs despite US jobs surprise"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Written by Steven Dooley, Head of Market Insights, and Shier Lee Lim, Lead FX and Macro Strategist<\/p>\n<p><strong>US jobs defy downbeat forecasts<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The all-important US jobs report came in much stronger than expected overnight helping the US dollar to gain for a second day.<\/p>\n<p>The June non-farm employment report came in at 147k new jobs versus forecasts for 110k jobs. The unemployment rate fell from 4.3% to 4.1%.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The greenback gained on the news with the USD index climbing from three-year lows for the second day. The USD\u2019s biggest gains were against the euro and Japanese yen.<\/p>\n<p>Across APAC, the Aussie and kiwi were only moderately lower with both the AUD\/USD and NZD\/USD just off the eight-month highs seen earlier in the week.<\/p>\n<p>Similarly, the USD\/SGD and USD\/CNH climbed from recent lows.<\/p>\n<p>FX markets might be quieter going into the weekend with US markets closed for the Fourth of July holiday tonight.<\/p>\n<p> <img loading=\"lazy\" width=\"2560\" height=\"2418\" alt=\"July 2025 chart showing non-farm payrolls have grown for 54 months straight\" style=\"object-fit:contain;width:512px;height:479px;\" nitro-lazy-src=\"https:\/\/cdn-ildhbkb.nitrocdn.com\/oKdpdktFknihPspwCdynjsiANfaEypWa\/assets\/images\/optimized\/rev-7c2ab03\/convera.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/July-2025-chart-showing-monthly-change-in-non-farm-payrolls-in-millions-scaled.png\" class=\"wp-image-287946 nitro-lazy\" decoding=\"async\" nitro-lazy-empty=\"\" id=\"NTY2OjQxMg==-1\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;nitro-empty-id=NTY2OjQxMg==-1;base64,PHN2ZyB2aWV3Qm94PSIwIDAgMjU2MCAyNDE4IiB3aWR0aD0iMjU2MCIgaGVpZ2h0PSIyNDE4IiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\"\/> <\/p>\n<p><strong>Aussie trade gap widens, pair tests resistance<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Australia\u2019s trade surplus shrank in May, dropping to AUD2.238 billion from a revised AUD4.859 billion in April, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.<\/p>\n<p>The outcome surprised many, landing well below the expected AUD5 billion surplus. Exports weakened while imports picked up speed, pushing the balance lower.<\/p>\n<p>AUD\/USD is now hovering near the top of its 30-day range.<\/p>\n<p>The next big hurdle remains 0.66, a level we\u2019ve flagged as a key psychological threshold.<\/p>\n<p>Key support lies on 21-day EMA of 0.6518 and 50-day EMA of 0.6468.<\/p>\n<p> <img loading=\"lazy\" width=\"453\" height=\"417\" alt=\"July 2025 chart showing range and position of AUD\/USD over different time frames\" style=\"object-fit:contain;width:512px;height:479px;\" nitro-lazy-src=\"https:\/\/cdn-ildhbkb.nitrocdn.com\/oKdpdktFknihPspwCdynjsiANfaEypWa\/assets\/images\/optimized\/rev-7c2ab03\/convera.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/July-2025-chart-showing-range-and-position-of-AUDUSD-over-different-time-frames.png\" class=\"wp-image-287987 nitro-lazy\" decoding=\"async\" nitro-lazy-empty=\"\" id=\"NTk0OjQxNg==-1\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;nitro-empty-id=NTk0OjQxNg==-1;base64,PHN2ZyB2aWV3Qm94PSIwIDAgNDUzIDQxNyIgd2lkdGg9IjQ1MyIgaGVpZ2h0PSI0MTciIHhtbG5zPSJodHRwOi8vd3d3LnczLm9yZy8yMDAwL3N2ZyI+PC9zdmc+\"\/> <\/p>\n<p><strong>Yuan steadies as China\u2019s services slip and exports contract<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>China\u2019s services sector lost momentum in June as the Caixin Services PMI slipped to 50.6, down from May\u2019s 51.1 and missing the 50.9 forecast.<\/p>\n<p>It was the weakest reading in nine months, weighed down by slower new business growth amid global headwinds.<\/p>\n<p>Export services took a hit, shrinking for the second straight month at the fastest pace since late 2022.<\/p>\n<p>On the bright side, the Composite PMI climbed to 51.3 in June from 49.6, hinting at some improvement despite mixed economic signals.<\/p>\n<p>CNH held steady overnight, as market focus shifted to unfolding developments in the UK.<\/p>\n<p>Key resistance levels for USD\/CNH are at the 21-day EMA of 7.1767 and 50-day EMA of 7.2004.<\/p>\n<p> <img loading=\"lazy\" width=\"447\" height=\"414\" alt=\"July 2025 chart showing USD versus Euro and Chinese yuan Oct 2024 - Jun 2025\" style=\"object-fit:contain;width:512px;height:479px;\" nitro-lazy-src=\"https:\/\/cdn-ildhbkb.nitrocdn.com\/oKdpdktFknihPspwCdynjsiANfaEypWa\/assets\/images\/optimized\/rev-7c2ab03\/convera.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/July-2025-chart-showing-USD-versus-Euro-and-Chinese-yuan-Oct-2024-Jun-2025.png\" class=\"wp-image-288028 nitro-lazy\" decoding=\"async\" nitro-lazy-empty=\"\" id=\"NjI2OjQwNw==-1\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;nitro-empty-id=NjI2OjQwNw==-1;base64,PHN2ZyB2aWV3Qm94PSIwIDAgNDQ3IDQxNCIgd2lkdGg9IjQ0NyIgaGVpZ2h0PSI0MTQiIHhtbG5zPSJodHRwOi8vd3d3LnczLm9yZy8yMDAwL3N2ZyI+PC9zdmc+\"\/> <\/p>\n<p><strong>Greenback higher after strong jobs report \u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Table: seven-day rolling currency trends and trading ranges \u00a0<\/p>\n<p> <img loading=\"lazy\" width=\"655\" height=\"616\" alt=\"3 July 2025 table showing seven day rolling currency trends and trading ranges\" style=\"object-fit:contain;width:512px;height:479px;\" nitro-lazy-src=\"https:\/\/cdn-ildhbkb.nitrocdn.com\/oKdpdktFknihPspwCdynjsiANfaEypWa\/assets\/images\/optimized\/rev-7c2ab03\/convera.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/03072025-table-showing-secen-day-rolling-currency-trends-and-trading-ranges.png\" class=\"wp-image-288069 nitro-lazy\" decoding=\"async\" nitro-lazy-empty=\"\" id=\"NjM4OjQxMA==-1\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;nitro-empty-id=NjM4OjQxMA==-1;base64,PHN2ZyB2aWV3Qm94PSIwIDAgNjU1IDYxNiIgd2lkdGg9IjY1NSIgaGVpZ2h0PSI2MTYiIHhtbG5zPSJodHRwOi8vd3d3LnczLm9yZy8yMDAwL3N2ZyI+PC9zdmc+\"\/> <\/p>\n<p><strong>Key global risk events<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Calendar: 30 June \u2013 4 July<\/p>\n<p> <img loading=\"lazy\" width=\"623\" height=\"648\" alt=\"Key global risk events calendar: 30 June \u2013 4 July &#10;\" style=\"object-fit:contain;width:512px;height:479px;\" nitro-lazy-src=\"https:\/\/cdn-ildhbkb.nitrocdn.com\/oKdpdktFknihPspwCdynjsiANfaEypWa\/assets\/images\/optimized\/rev-7c2ab03\/convera.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Key-global-risk-events-calendar-30-June-4-July-2025.png\" class=\"wp-image-283610 nitro-lazy\" decoding=\"async\" nitro-lazy-empty=\"\" id=\"NjUxOjgw-1\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;nitro-empty-id=NjUxOjgw-1;base64,PHN2ZyB2aWV3Qm94PSIwIDAgNjIzIDY0OCIgd2lkdGg9IjYyMyIgaGVpZ2h0PSI2NDgiIHhtbG5zPSJodHRwOi8vd3d3LnczLm9yZy8yMDAwL3N2ZyI+PC9zdmc+\"\/> <\/p>\n<p>All times AEST<\/p>\n<p>All times AEST<\/p>\n<p><strong>Have a question?<\/strong>\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/convera.com\/cdn-cgi\/l\/email-protection#edac9e86a08c9f868899a4839e848a85999eadae82839b889f8cc38e8280\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">[email\u00a0protected]<\/a><\/p>\n<p>*The FX rates published are provided by Convera\u2019s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy\/sell rates, or a financial offer.<\/p>\n<p> <a href=\"https:\/\/convera.com\/blog\/currency-news\/aud-and-nzd-at-new-highs\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\" noreferrer noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" width=\"1500\" height=\"211\" alt=\"Convera live - Register now\" nitro-lazy-src=\"https:\/\/cdn-ildhbkb.nitrocdn.com\/oKdpdktFknihPspwCdynjsiANfaEypWa\/assets\/images\/optimized\/rev-7c2ab03\/convera.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/1601592804-2025_Convera-Live-Geneva_EmailBanner.png\" class=\"wp-image-211496 nitro-lazy\" decoding=\"async\" nitro-lazy-empty=\"\" id=\"NjcxOjM4Nw==-1\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;nitro-empty-id=NjcxOjM4Nw==-1;base64,PHN2ZyB2aWV3Qm94PSIwIDAgMTUwMCAyMTEiIHdpZHRoPSIxNTAwIiBoZWlnaHQ9IjIxMSIgeG1sbnM9Imh0dHA6Ly93d3cudzMub3JnLzIwMDAvc3ZnIj48L3N2Zz4=\"\/><\/a>  <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Written by Steven Dooley, Head of Market Insights, and Shier Lee Lim, Lead FX and Macro Strategist US&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":12566,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3092],"tags":[51,897,16,15],"class_list":{"0":"post-236108","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-jobs","8":"tag-business","9":"tag-jobs","10":"tag-uk","11":"tag-united-kingdom"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@uk\/114792227600148991","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/236108","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=236108"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/236108\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/12566"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=236108"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=236108"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=236108"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}