{"id":237610,"date":"2025-07-04T14:26:16","date_gmt":"2025-07-04T14:26:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/237610\/"},"modified":"2025-07-04T14:26:16","modified_gmt":"2025-07-04T14:26:16","slug":"dollar-firms-on-big-stateside-jobs-beat","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/237610\/","title":{"rendered":"Dollar Firms on Big Stateside Jobs Beat"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Image \u00a9 Adobe Images<\/p>\n

Another above-consensus jobs report helps the Dollar recover.<\/p>\n

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP\/USD) is down a further quarter of a per cent on the day, reaching 1.3621, following news that the United States added 147K jobs during June.<\/p>\n

This was ahead of the consensus expectation for a non-farm payroll figure of 110k, which would have marked a notable slowdown from May’s upwardly revised 144K.<\/p>\n

Corroborating a message of resilience was the unemployment rate, which unexpectedly fell to 4.1% from 4.2%, defying expectations for a rise to 4.3%.<\/p>\n

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If there was one spot of softness, it was in wages, where average hourly earnings managed a 0.2%\/m gain, whereas a 0.3% figure was expected. However, wage growth – a key driver of inflation – doesn’t face an imminent collapse with such a robust labour market underpinning it.<\/p>\n

“These latest job figures show the U.S. economy remains as solid as a rock. It\u2019s difficult to imagine what could cause the US economy to crack given tariff turmoil has done little to shake the foundations. As a result, hopes for a rate cut from the Fed in July have all but disappeared,” says Isaac Stell, Investment Manager at Wealth Club.<\/p>\n

The erasure of any hope for a cut as soon as July equates with rising U.S. bond yields and a stronger Dollar.<\/p>\n

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Above: GBP\/USD at 15-minute intervals.<\/p>\n

We could be entering a new phase in global FX, whereby the seemingly relentless USD selloff finally has a reason to reverse.<\/p>\n

Those wanting a stronger Pound-Dollar exchange rate, should therefore be wary of a summer of decline, particularly given the UK’s increasingly choppy fiscal and political waters.<\/p>\n

A key tenet of the Dollar’s selloff is the notion that the U.S. economy is finally slowing and it was losing its tag as an exceptional destination for foreign capital.<\/p>\n

However, the data disagrees with this notion, and the continued growth, particularly in the labour market, means the Dollar could find a bit more love in the second half of the year.<\/p>\n

Backing the message from the headline non-farm payroll figures was the weekly Initial Jobless Claims report, which read at 233K, down from 237K prior and below expectations for 240K.<\/p>\n

Tuesday saw the Dollar strengthen after the odds of a July rate reduction at the Fed receded in the wake of a set of strong numbers:<\/p>\n

ISM Manufacturing survey read at 49% in June, up from 48.5% in May and above consensus expectations for 48.8
ISM prices paid were decidedly inflationary at 69.7%, beating expectations for 69 and May’s print of 69.4
JOLTS job openings rose to 7.769M in May, exceeding estimates for 7.3M and a rise on April’s 7.395M<\/p>\n

“These are not decisive signals, but they point toward higher prices and a resilient labour market \u2013 hardly a case for imminent Fed action… giving the dollar some brief support,” says Francesco Pesole, FX Strategist at ING Bank.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Image \u00a9 Adobe Images Another above-consensus jobs report helps the Dollar recover. The Pound to Dollar exchange rate…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":237611,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3090],"tags":[51,1700,16,15],"class_list":{"0":"post-237610","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy","8":"tag-business","9":"tag-economy","10":"tag-uk","11":"tag-united-kingdom"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@uk\/114795432530382086","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/237610","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=237610"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/237610\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/237611"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=237610"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=237610"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=237610"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}