{"id":241462,"date":"2025-07-06T01:09:14","date_gmt":"2025-07-06T01:09:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/241462\/"},"modified":"2025-07-06T01:09:14","modified_gmt":"2025-07-06T01:09:14","slug":"u-s-recession-odds-on-polymarket-plunge-to-22-as-trade-tensions-cool","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/241462\/","title":{"rendered":"U.S. Recession Odds on Polymarket Plunge to 22% as Trade Tensions Cool"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Bets on a U.S. recession in 2025 have dropped sharply, with odds on crypto prediction platform Polymarket sinking to<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/polymarket.com\/event\/us-recession-in-2025?tid=1751716336103\" rel=\"noopener\"> 22% <\/a>this week, the lowest level since late February.<\/p>\n<p>Recession fears ballooned earlier this year when the Atlanta Federal Reserve\u2019s GDPNow indicator<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/02\/28\/the-first-quarter-is-on-track-for-negative-gdp-growth-atlanta-fed-indicator-says-.html\" rel=\"noopener\"> predicted a 1.5%<\/a> contraction for the first quarter of the year, while the actual fall was softer at 0.5%.<\/p>\n<p><img alt=\"jwp-player-placeholder\" decoding=\"async\" data-nimg=\"fill\" style=\"position:absolute;height:100%;width:100%;left:0;top:0;right:0;bottom:0;color:transparent\"   src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/1751764154_458_image\"\/><\/p>\n<p>Tensions escalated in March as U.S. President Donald Trump announced a series of reciprocal tariffs on what he branded \u201c<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/livecoverage\/stock-market-tariffs-trade-war-04-04-2025\/card\/here-are-the-basics-on-trump-s-liberation-day-tariffs-PsQFlP4IlPdFh5lJrvSo\" rel=\"noopener\">Liberation Day<\/a>,\u201d rattling investors already wary of a slowing economy. The Fed\u2019s decision to <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.caixabankresearch.com\/en\/economics-markets\/financial-markets\/what-are-implications-fed-slowing-down-its-balance-sheet\" rel=\"noopener\">slow the pace of shrinking its balance sheet <\/a>added fuel to concerns.<\/p>\n<p>By April, Wall Street giants like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan were raising red flags. Goldman put recession<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/markets\/us\/goldman-sachs-raises-odds-us-recession-45-2025-04-07\/\" rel=\"noopener\"> odds at 45% at the time<\/a>, and Polymarket odds climbed as high as 66%. Another spike came in May after former U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned that Trump\u2019s tariffs could have a <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/800ee820-4a9b-480a-afac-3321bcbdbd62\" rel=\"noopener\">\u201ctremendously adverse\u201d effect<\/a> on the economy.<\/p>\n<p>Yet behind the headlines, negotiations with China progressed. The market coined the so-called TACO (Trump Always Chicken Out) trade, referencing the U.S. President\u2019s negotiations pattern, where tariffs are announced but then reversed.<\/p>\n<p>Goldman Sachs <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/NickTimiraos\/status\/1933164243937030214\">cut its 12-month recession odds<\/a> to 30% last month, reflecting a more optimistic outlook as financial conditions eased and trade threats receded.<\/p>\n<p>Whether a recession hits in 2025 remains uncertain. On Polymarket, a recession bet pays out if the National Bureau of Economic Research declares one or if the U.S. posts two straight quarters of negative GDP growth.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Bets on a U.S. recession in 2025 have dropped sharply, with odds on crypto prediction platform Polymarket sinking&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":241463,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3090],"tags":[51,1700,7372,18290,93935,2794,16,15],"class_list":{"0":"post-241462","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy","8":"tag-business","9":"tag-economy","10":"tag-federal-reserve","11":"tag-macro","12":"tag-polymarket","13":"tag-recession","14":"tag-uk","15":"tag-united-kingdom"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@uk\/114803622871014247","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/241462","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=241462"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/241462\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/241463"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=241462"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=241462"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=241462"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}