If Adam Dorr is correct, robots and artificial intelligence will dominate the global economy within a generation and put virtually the entire human race out of a job. The social scientist doubles up as a futurist and has a stark vision of the scale, speed and unstoppability of a technological transformation that he says will replace virtually all human labour within 20 years.<\/p>\n
The Guardian\u2019s journalism is independent. We will earn a commission if you buy something through an affiliate link.\u00a0Learn more.<\/a><\/p>\n Dorr heads a team of researchers who have studied patterns of technological change over millennia and concluded that the current wave will not just convulse but obliterate the labour market by 2045. What cars did to horses and carts, and electricity to gas lamps, and digital cameras to Kodak, are templates for the coming shock, he says. \u201cTechnology has a new target in its crosshairs \u2013 and that\u2019s us. That\u2019s our labour.\u201d<\/p>\n Whatever you do in whatever sector, within a generation machines will be able to perform the same task just as well, if not better, and for a fraction of the cost, says Dorr. \u201cCosts are improving consistently, capabilities are improving consistently. We\u2019ve seen that pattern before. If I can get the same thing or better for the same or lower cost, switching is a no-brainer. We\u2019re the horses, we\u2019re the film cameras.\u201d<\/p>\n Adam Dorr: \u2018We\u2019re the horses, we\u2019re the film cameras.\u2019 Photograph: Andrew Watchorn Photography<\/p>\n Dorr, 48, is a technology theorist with a PhD in public affairs from the University of California, Los Angeles, and is the director of research at RethinkX<\/a>, a US-registered nonprofit that analyses and forecasts technological disruption. It was founded and is largely funded by James Arbib and Tony Seba, technology entrepreneurs and investors.<\/p>\n Dorr spoke to the Guardian on a visit to Ireland, where he addressed the Dargan Forum<\/a>, a two-day gathering in D\u00fan Laoghaire, south Dublin, that focused on green and digital transitions.<\/p>\n Dorr combined an ominous prediction \u2013 humanoid robots powered by increasingly capable artificial intelligence will spread across virtually every industry, leaving humans unable to compete \u2013 with a jarring blast of optimism: handled well, this revolution will usher in \u201csuper-abundance\u201d that will liberate humanity. But handled badly, new extremes of inequality and oligarchy beckon.<\/p>\n The transition will be faster than most people think, says Dorr. \u201cWe\u2019ve documented 1,500-plus technological transformations across all of human history. Through the theoretical lens that we\u2019ve developed, a consistent set of patterns emerge over and over and over again.\u201d<\/p>\n Once a new technology captures just a few percentage points of \u201cmind share or market share\u201d, it tends to acquire overwhelming dominance within 15 to 20 years, which according to Dorr, means robots and AI will soon make human labour all but obsolete.<\/p>\n \u201cMachines that can think are here, and their capabilities are expanding day by day with no end in sight. We don\u2019t have that long to get ready for this. We know it\u2019s going to be tumultuous.\u201d<\/p>\n Some sectors will have an interregnum during which humans can work effectively alongside robots \u2013 just like the period when chess grandmasters teamed up with chess programs \u2013 but sooner rather than later humans will just be in the way, says Dorr.<\/p>\n Jobs whose value depend on human input \u2013 such as sports coaches, politicians, sex workers, ethicists \u2013 will endure but even they will face competition from machines. \u201cThere will remain a niche for human labour in some domains. The problem is that there are nowhere near enough of those occupations to employ 4 billion people.\u201d<\/p>\n skip past newsletter promotion<\/a><\/p>\n A weekly dive in to how technology is shaping our lives<\/p>\n Privacy Notice: <\/strong>Newsletters may contain info about charities, online ads, and content funded by outside parties. For more information see our Privacy Policy<\/a>. We use Google reCaptcha to protect our website and the Google Privacy Policy<\/a> and Terms of Service<\/a> apply.<\/p>\n after newsletter promotion<\/p>\n Venerable institutions and practices may no longer be fit for purpose, so societies need to urgently prepare by devising a set of guiding principles and re-evaluating concepts such as value, price and distribution, says Dorr. \u201cI don\u2019t have the answers. We don\u2019t even know if we have the right questions. We need to experiment now and try out new ownership structures, new stakeholder structures.\u201d<\/p>\n Adam Dorr at the Royal Marine hotel in D\u00fan Laoghaire, Dublin. Photograph: Andrew Watchorn Photography<\/p>\n