As Russia deploys its advanced Su-34 bomber jets to seek out and obliterate SpaceX Starlink … More terminals across besieged Ukraine, it is also developing an arsenal of weaponry aimed at winning a future space war with the West. AFP PHOTO \/ POOL \/ ALEXANDER ZEMLIANICHENKO (Photo credit should read ALEXANDER ZEMLIANICHENKO\/AFP via Getty Images)<\/p>\n
AFP via Getty Images<\/p>\n
As Russia deploys advanced fighter-bombers and missiles in its battle to obliterate SpaceX Starlink terminals across Ukraine, it is also developing an arsenal of weaponry that might be aimed at winning an all-out Space War I with the West, says a leading space defense scholar in Washington, D.C.<\/p>\n
Following a barrage of threats – fired off by Vladimir Putin\u2019s lieutenants at UN outposts in Geneva and New York – to shoot down Western satellites<\/a> aiding Ukraine, Moscow is testing its Nudol anti-satellite missile, which has already been launched to blast a Soviet-era spacecraft in low Earth orbit, and could in theory likewise smash into any of SpaceX\u2019s 7000 satellites, says Victoria Samson, Chief Director, Space Security and Stability at the Secure World Foundation.<\/p>\n Samson, one of the world\u2019s leading experts on space security and space arms, tells me in an interview that the Russia defense ministry might be considering arming these Nudol ASATs with nuclear warheads, but adds that the evidence is not conclusive.<\/p>\n In an extensive chronicle of the latest advances across the world\u2019s competing space weapons<\/a> programs that Samson co-authored, she says: \u201cDepictions of the Nudol transporter-erector-launcher have features \u2026 typically associated with nuclear-armed missiles.\u201d<\/p>\n Russia, which created the world’s most powerful thermonuclear bomb – the Soviets’ Tsar Bomb, shown … More here – might be creating two new delivery systems to target spacecraft with atomic warheads (Photo by NATALIA KOLESNIKOVA \/ AFP) (Photo by NATALIA KOLESNIKOVA\/AFP via Getty Images)<\/p>\n AFP via Getty Images<\/p>\n The Russian defense complex producing the direct ascent missile has pitched the Nudol as a potential threat to every U.S. spacecraft in low Earth orbit, Samson reveals in the report.<\/p>\n Spacecraft within the Nudol\u2019s range would include everything from the colossal International Space Station (ISS) to the SpaceX Starlink satellites beaming broadband connections to besieged Ukrainians and the Planet Labs imagery spacecraft<\/a> that produce astounding high-resolution photographs charting the movement of Russian tanks and missile brigades during their invasion.<\/p>\n Samson adds in the report, \u201cGlobal Counterspace Capabilities 2025<\/a>,\u201d that the Soviet Russian defense ministry fielded a similar nuclear-tipped interceptor, which NATO called \u201cGorgon,\u201d as part of Moscow\u2019s missile defense system during the twilight era of the Soviet Union.<\/p>\n If the Kremlin\u2019s weapons specialists are racing to develop new nuclear warheads for the Nudols, that could mark the second class of atomic arms delivery systems that Russia is working on for potential space wars of the future with the West.<\/p>\n Since the White House revealed last year that American intelligence agencies had discovered a top-secret Russian project to produce nuclear-armed spacecraft that would perpetually stalk Western satellites in low Earth orbit, there have been no signs the Kremlin has abandoned that quest.<\/p>\n Although President Putin has denied the existence of this clandestine project, the U.S. called him out by introducing a resolution in the UN Security Council last April calling on all the nations of the world to reaffirm allegiance to the Outer Space Treaty\u2019s ban on stationing nuclear weapons in orbit.<\/p>\n Despite Moscow\u2019s ratification of that treaty, Putin\u2019s emissary at the UN abruptly vetoed the resolution, prompting Jake Sullivan, then National Security Advisor, to remark: \u201cWe have heard President Putin say publicly that Russia has no intention of deploying nuclear weapons in space<\/a>. If that were the case, Russia would not have vetoed this resolution.\u201d<\/p>\n Samson, who previously served as a senior researcher at the Coalition to Reduce Nuclear Dangers, and at a defense think tank where she worked on war-gaming scenarios for the Missile Defense Agency\u2019s Directorate of Intelligence, tells me it is still unclear \u201chow many nuclear-armed satellites Moscow would launch.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cI would guess more than one, just to have back-up in case there are issues with the first one,\u201d she says, \u201cbut it would be such an effective ASAT weapon, a whole fleet would not be needed.\u201d<\/p>\n The detonation of a powerful nuclear bomb in orbit could not only destroy thousands of satellites, but also swiftly cause the deaths of any nearby astronauts, Samson tells me in the interview.<\/p>\n She says nuclear arms experts at the Pentagon\u2019s Defense Threat Reduction Agency, who conducted a series of simulated nuclear explosions<\/a> at varying altitudes in orbit, stated in a sweeping report that the explosion of a 5000-kiloton nuclear bomb near the ISS would bring swift deaths to all its spacefarers.<\/p>\n The blast, these experts predicted, \u201cwould cause radiation sickness to the astronauts within approximately one hour and a 90% probability of death within 2-3 hours.”<\/p>\n The detonation of a powerful Russian nuclear warhead near the International Space Station would kill … More the ISS astronauts “within 2-3 hours.” Super-speed shrapnel from a Moscow missile test has already threatened the Station (Photo by NASA via Getty Images)<\/p>\n Getty Images<\/p>\n When the Kremlin last tested the Nudol – without a nuclear weapon aboard – on the eve of launching its battle to crush the democratic pro-Western leadership of Ukraine, it shattered a massive inactive satellite, creating a speeding minefield of shrapnel that quickly approached the orbital pathway of the ISS and its international crew<\/a>.<\/p>\n \u201cNASA flight directors ordered the crew onboard the ISS to take emergency shelter in the Dragon and Soyuz lifeboats,\u201d Samson says.<\/p>\n \u201cThe US military condemned the test,\u201d she adds, \u201cstating that it demonstrated a \u2018deliberate disregard for the security, safety, stability, and long-term sustainability of the space domain for all nations.\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n With the start of their missile blitzkrieg on Ukraine, the Russian invaders attempted to destroy the internet infrastructure across the country, while their cyber-shock troops attacked the ground stations of the ViaSat satellite system Kyiv\u2019s government and military elites were using to communicate with each other and map out the nation\u2019s defenses.<\/p>\n With bombs bursting across the capital, Mykhailo Fedorov, Ukraine\u2019s Minister of Digital Transformation, sent out an urgent SOS, via Twitter<\/a>, pleading for Elon Musk\u2019s help:<\/p>\n \u201c@elonmusk, while you try to colonize Mars \u2014 Russia try to occupy Ukraine! While your rockets successfully land from space \u2014 Russian rockets attack Ukrainian civil people! We ask you to provide Ukraine with Starlink stations.\u201d<\/p>\n Within days, SpaceX began sending hundreds, then thousands, then tens of thousands of life-saving Starlink terminals to Ukrainian medical centers and bomb shelters, government enclaves and universities, and activated the satellites flying above.<\/p>\n SpaceX Starlink satellites – shown here being launched by a SpaceX rocket – have been beaming down … More broadband internet connections to besieged Ukrainians, sparking the wrath of the Russian invaders (Photo by George Rose\/Getty Images)<\/p>\n Getty Images<\/p>\n The airlift saved Ukraine\u2019s leaders from being blockaded inside a new Russian Iron Curtain, but infuriated the Kremlin<\/a>.<\/p>\n Since then, Russia\u2019s state-run TASS news agency has issued a stream of dispatches charting Moscow\u2019s all-out assault on Starlink stations – depicted as high-value military targets – across Ukraine: The Kremlin has deployed sophisticated Su-34 fighter bombers<\/a>, Tornado-S multiple launch rocket systems<\/a> and Lancet kamikaze drones<\/a> to seek out and destroy these Starlink transceivers.<\/p>\n Musk told his biographer, Walter Isaacson, that Russia\u2019s ambassador to the U.S. had personally told him the use of Starlink technology by Ukraine\u2019s resistance fighters could impel Moscow to respond with tactical nuclear weapons<\/a>. The democracy\u2019s defenders, he told Isaacson, had devised a squadron of robotic unmanned submarines \u201cpacked with explosives\u201d that would autonomously cross the Black Sea and ambush the Russian fleet.<\/p>\n They apparently reverse engineered SpaceX\u2019s Starlink satellite system to develop an advanced navigation technology to guide the drone subs on their clandestine mission. In a terse Twitter exchange with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Musk warned: \u201cTrying to retake Crimea will cause massive death, probably fail & risk nuclear war<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n When SpaceX\u2019s founder began rushing the Starlink stations into Ukraine, Samson says, he warned users of the potential for Russian forces to track their ground-to-space satellite transmissions, and to target the stations.<\/p>\n Musk also revealed that Moscow\u2019s specialists in electronic warfare had mounted sporadic attacks aimed at jamming Starlink communications, and that SpaceX was fighting digital skirmishes, via software updates to the terminals, to counter these campaigns.<\/p>\n \u201cRussia places a high priority on integrating electronic warfare into military operations and has been investing heavily in modernizing this capability,\u201d Samson explains in the new Counterspace 2025 report.<\/p>\n Recent upgrades include tactical systems that can jam satellite user terminals, and interfere with the guidance systems of drones and guided missiles.<\/p>\n \u201cRussia has a long history of using electronic warfare during conflicts,\u201d Samson says, and since the start of the Ukraine war has sent some of its top electronic warriors into the fight.<\/p>\n It is also enhancing its Tobol system – designed to attack foreign satellite transmissions. \u201cLeaked US military documents,\u201d Samson says, \u201csuggest that Russia has used at least three Tobol installations to try to disrupt Starlink commercial satellite signals over Eastern Ukraine.\u201d<\/p>\n Since last year, she adds, Ukrainian military units have reported sporadic interruptions in their Starlink connections.<\/p>\n The Kremlin is also developing a new attack technology, called Kalinka, \u201cintended to detect and disrupt signals to and from Starlink satellites,\u201d Samson says.<\/p>\n \u201cStarlink has proven to be very useful for the Ukrainian military to communicate,\u201d Samson tells me, so \u201cRussia is trying to take away that battlefield advantage.\u201d<\/p>\n Even while the Kremlin expands its deployment of counterspace weapons across Ukrainian battlefronts, Samson says, Russia\u2019s overarching focus is on trying to recapture the near-parity it once held with the U.S. in overall space power during the Cold War.<\/p>\n While Russian power swiftly declined upon the break-up of the Soviet Union a generation ago, she says, Putin\u2019s weapons designers are now attempting to catch up with the U.S.<\/p>\n After observing American defense strategists integrate space technologies into their war maneuvers over the last decades, she says, \u201cThe Russian political and military leadership have come to see the military aspect of space as essential to modern warfare and winning current and future conflicts.\u201d<\/p>\n As a result, Samson adds, \u201cthe Russian military is aggressively pursuing capabilities to degrade or destroy adversary space-based assets.\u201d<\/p>\n Yet Russia has never truly regained its status as a space superpower, or as a military peer of the U.S., says Elena Grossfeld<\/a>, an expert on Moscow\u2019s military<\/a> space program and nuclear modernization drive in the Department of War Studies at King\u2019s College London.<\/p>\n But the Russian Federation does retain one feature of its superpower past – as holder of the world\u2019s largest nuclear weapons stockpile – so brandishes its atomic arsenal in face-offs with the West, she says.<\/p>\n Russia still holds the world’s largest stockpile of nuclear weapons, and Vladimir Putin has … More repeatedly threatened to use them against any NATO ally aiding besieged Ukraine. Shown here is a Kremlin ICBM parading through Red Square (Photo by Mikhail Svetlov\/Getty Images)<\/p>\n Getty Images<\/p>\n \u201cRussia is indeed capable of putting a nuclear warhead on its ASAT missile,\u201d Grossfeld says.<\/p>\n \u201cI am, however, skeptical of their intent to actually use it in any case except for a full blown war.\u201d<\/p>\n While some defense experts have predicted that the Kremlin might detonate one or more nuclear warheads in space as an asymmetric attack that could wipe out at least part of the far superior American rings of satellites, Grossfeld says that strategy would carry immense risk for Russia.<\/p>\n If the atomic attack in orbit destroyed even one American satellite deployed to monitor Moscow\u2019s nuclear-capped ICBMs, she points out, \u201cthat in itself could be viewed as a precursor to a nuclear attack,\u201d and in turn trigger a devastating U.S. counterattack, with its own silo- and submarine-based thermonuclear missiles hitting targets across Russia.<\/p>\n \u201cI think the threat of the Russian nuclear ASAT is more useful as a saber-rattling device – since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine there have been multiple instances of that – than actually taking out US satellites.\u201d<\/p>\n Vladimir Putin, despite his nuclear brinkmanship over the last three years, Grossfeld ventures, does not want to see the world end in nuclear flames.<\/p>\n