{"id":275790,"date":"2025-07-19T22:04:17","date_gmt":"2025-07-19T22:04:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/275790\/"},"modified":"2025-07-19T22:04:17","modified_gmt":"2025-07-19T22:04:17","slug":"after-ukraine-kazakhstan-could-be-vladimir-putins-next-target-for-invasion","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/275790\/","title":{"rendered":"After Ukraine, Kazakhstan could be Vladimir Putin’s next target for invasion"},"content":{"rendered":"

Zhanar Sekerbayeva emerged from 10 days in custody earlier this year with a message.<\/p>\n

“This will not stop us,” she told the ABC. “We are unstoppable.”<\/p>\n

If the human-rights activist sounds determined after her stint behind bars in March, it is because she needs to be. Her work has been getting much more difficult lately.<\/p>\n

Dr Sekerbayeva has been rattling cages in her native Kazakhstan for years, but most recently, her projects with Feminita \u2014 the LGBT and women’s liberation group she co-founded \u2014 have attracted attention.<\/p>\n

It is not just the government and authorities circling. The organisation’s events have been crashed by counter protesters with a stated agenda to stop “same-sex love being forced on our children”.<\/p>\n

Some people argue that what might seem like a simple case of two advocacy groups at opposing ends of the sociopolitical spectrum arguing is something more sinister.<\/p>\n

They warn Russia could be pulling the strings, and that Kazakhstan facing a Ukraine-style invasion is not out of the question.<\/p>\n

\"A<\/p>\n

Zhanar Sekerbayeva (in green vest) says protest events have been crashed by counterprotesters. (Instagram: feminita_kz)<\/p>\n

Kazakhstan declared its independence from the Soviet Union in 1991 but retains close ties with Moscow.<\/p>\n

It shares a significant land border with Russia (at almost 7,600 kilometres, it is the world’s longest continuous boundary line), and a trade relationship worth around $40 billion last year.<\/p>\n

Kazakhstan relies on the internet, electricity, and, in some regions, gas coming from Russia.<\/p>\n

But Dr Sekerbayeva argues the Kremlin’s influence goes much further.<\/p>\n

Earlier this year, for example, Kazakh MPs started drafting laws that could require media outlets and NGOs that receive any funding from abroad to declare themselves as “foreign agents”.<\/p>\n

Critics warn they are modelled on similar, sweeping powers in Russia, which were in 2022 expanded and can now be used by the Kremlin to prosecute dissenting voices.<\/p>\n

Dr Sekerbayeva said Kazakhstan’s policies were “echoing” Russia’s.<\/p>\n

“This has been happening for a long time,” she said. “It’s as if Kazakhstan is still a colony of the Russian Federation.<\/p>\n

“It copies and repeats all the legislative initiatives and statements made by Russian deputies, who, as you know, don’t really understand women’s rights or human rights.”<\/p>\n

The country trying to Putin-proof its border<\/a><\/p>\n

As Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine rages into its fourth year, Poland is preparing to be the Russian president’s next target.<\/p>\n

While Kazakhstan’s “foreign agent” laws are not yet a reality, there are signs that a cultural crackdown is already underway.<\/p>\n

In April, a Kazakh court sentenced the founder of a satirical Instagram account to five years “restricted freedom” on charges of inciting ethnic and religious hatred.<\/p>\n

The 29-year-old blogger behind the account, Temirlan Yensebek, was held in pre-trial detention for two months after posting a song with offensive lyrics about Russians.<\/p>\n

Journalist Maria Remiga described that case as “a joke”.<\/p>\n

“It’s purely Russian influence. I’ve seen it before,” she said.<\/p>\n

Remiga moved from Belarus to Kazakhstan in 2023, fearing for her safety in Vladimir Putin’s puppet state, but is becoming increasingly concerned about the future in her new home.<\/p>\n

“Activists come out to protest and they are arrested or fined,” she said.<\/p>\n

“I mean, I’m from a country where you can go to prison for pretty much anything, and even I am scared.”<\/p>\n

‘War in Ukraine has shown what Russia is capable of’<\/p>\n

Kazakhstan, officially, has a neutral stance on the Ukraine war, and has avoided direct criticisms of Russia since Mr Putin’s invasion began in February 2022.<\/p>\n

Kate Mallinson, an associate fellow of the Russia and Eurasia Program at London-based policy institute Chatham House, said the situation was complex.<\/p>\n

“Russia’s influence over countries like Kazakhstan has not waned since the beginning of the war,” she said.<\/p>\n

“Conversely, Russia has felt it needs its kind of neighbourhoods \u2014 those allies \u2014 particularly Kazakhstan, which is one of its closest allies.”<\/p>\n

At a press conference last year, Mr Putin described Kazakhstan as “practically a Russian-speaking country” and said the countries “should do our best to strengthen our ties”.<\/p>\n

He said criticisms of this were “not in the interests of the Russian state”.<\/p>\n

Ms Mallinson was in Kazakhstan when Russia invaded Ukraine.<\/p>\n

“I remember going down to breakfast in the hotel, and seeing all these grey faces. Kazakhs were saying: ‘We could be next.’<\/p>\n

“Many Kazakhs were substituting the word ‘Ukraine’ with ‘Kazakhstan’ during the ominous Russian security council speech in February that year.<\/p>\n

“The war in Ukraine has shown what Russia is capable of in its ‘near abroad’.”<\/p>\n

\"Russian<\/p>\n

Russian President Vladimir Putin has towered over the country’s politics for more than two decades.\u00a0 (Reuters: Sputnik\/Alexander Kazakov)<\/p>\n

Activists claim Russia’s influence in Kazakhstan can be difficult to trace.<\/p>\n

Take an organisation called the Kazakhstani Union of Parents \u2014 an NGO registered in 2021 \u2014 for example. Critics contend it is an alt-right group.<\/p>\n

It has previously lobbied against COVID vaccines and last year successfully got the country’s government to consider a petition calling for a law to “fully ban open and hidden propaganda of LGBT in Kazakhstan”, which gained more than 50,000 signatures.<\/p>\n

The organisation’s leader, Bagila Baltabayeva, gained notoriety after crashing one of Feminita’s events with a group of women earlier this year.<\/p>\n

The police were called, amid claims minors were being “corrupted”.<\/p>\n

Dr Sekerbayeva and another Feminita co-founder, Aqtorgyn Aqkenjebalasy, were arrested, charged with running a public activity linked to an unregistered social organisation, and detained for 10 days.<\/p>\n

“Bagila Baltabayeva repeats Russian propaganda, and the rhetoric of Russia’s fascist regime,” Dr Sekerbayeva said.<\/p>\n

The next day, another of Feminita’s meetings was disrupted by a group that bills itself as a charity, named Rahym.<\/p>\n

The group’s founder, Bibinur Sheralieva, posted a video online of several people bursting into the event and chanting: “Foreign agents, come out.”<\/p>\n

Analysts argue these types of incidents can be a canary in the coal mine for something larger, and could be a sign of Russia’s growing influence over Kazakhstan’s culture and politics.<\/p>\n

\"Two<\/p>\n

Zhanar Sekerbayeva, right, braces herself against a door before Kazakhstani Union of Parents activists broke through in February. (Telegram: RadioAzattyq)<\/p>\n

Mutali Moskeu is another Queer activist worried about the direction the country is headed.<\/p>\n

He launched an online information portal for LGBT+ teenagers last year that was ultimately blocked by the Ministry of Culture, under pressure from groups, including the Kazakhstani Union of Parents.<\/p>\n

“They played a big part in our website being blocked,” he said.<\/p>\n

“Unfortunately, over the past couple of years, the situation in Kazakhstan has worsened and continues to worsen.”<\/p>\n

Dr Sekerbayeva is urging other people to wake up to what is going on in her country.<\/p>\n

“Kazakhstan must remember that it is an independent, sovereign, legal, democratic, secular state,” she said.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Zhanar Sekerbayeva emerged from 10 days in custody earlier this year with a message. “This will not stop…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":275791,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7655],"tags":[104169,13561,332,333],"class_list":{"0":"post-275790","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-russia","8":"tag-feminita","9":"tag-kazakhstan","10":"tag-russia","11":"tag-vladimir-putin"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@uk\/114882167784582010","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/275790","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=275790"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/275790\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/275791"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=275790"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=275790"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=275790"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}