Fast forward to 2025, and the specter of U.S. President Donald Trump’s 30% trade tariffs on the EU, which will kick in on Aug.1 unless a trade deal is reached<\/a>, could bring them back.<\/p>\n “The U.K. could be a big indirect winner” if the threatened U.S. duties on the EU become a reality, according to Alex Altmann, partner and head of the German desk at London-based accountancy and business advisory firm Lubbock Fine.<\/p>\n “If the tariff rate for the EU finally ends up anywhere near this 30% level then the U.K.’s much lower U.S. tariffs would offer a major incentive for EU companies to shift some of their manufacturing to the U.K. or to expand their existing U.K. facilities,” he noted in emailed comments.\u00a0<\/p>\n A Range Rover Sport SUV on the production line at car manufacturing plant in Solihull, U.K.<\/p>\n Chris Ratcliffe | Bloomberg | Getty Images<\/p>\n “The U.K. has a lot of spare manufacturing capacity after Brexit. A big gap between U.K. and EU tariffs would be a major opportunity for the U.K. to regain some of its lost status as a key European manufacturing hub,” added Altmann, who is also the vice president of the British Chamber of Commerce in Germany.<\/p>\n As things stand, the U.K. has already struck a trade deal with the U.S. that reduces duties on cars to 10% and grants it the lowest duty on steel imports<\/a>. London also has a “reset” deal with the EU, after the Labour government under Prime Minister Keir Starmer \u2014 who was opposed to Brexit \u2014 carved out a trade agreement following years of post-referendum acrimony.<\/p>\n The post-Brexit trade landscape<\/p>\n The sweet spot the U.K. now finds itself in comes after several years of uncertainty and angst for businesses, as they’ve tried to navigate a post-Brexit world of more red tape and barriers to export.<\/p>\n That’s been an ongoing gripe for exporters, given that the 27-country EU remained the U.K.’s largest trading partner after Brexit was finally enacted in 2020. The EU accounted for more than 50% of Britain’s foreign trade in goods in 2024, according to the European Commission<\/a>.<\/p>\n A number of big businesses, and particularly financial services firms such as Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, sought to avoid the transnational regulatory complexities of the post-Brexit landscape by relocating operations and assets to other financial hubs in the EU<\/a>, such as Dublin, Paris, Amsterdam and Frankfurt. The exodus was ultimately not as dramatic as was initially feared.<\/p>\n Supporters and critics argue over the merits and disadvantages of Brexit and the divorce from the EU’s single market and customs union, as well as the free movement of goods and people that came with EU membership. Yet most economists agree that Brexit dented U.K. exports, jobs and economic growth.<\/p>\n The Office for Budget Responsibility, the U.K.’s\u00a0independent forecaster, estimates that exports and imports\u00a0will be around 15% lower<\/a> in the long run, compared to if the U.K. had remained in the EU. <\/p>\n Although economists argue over the impact on the wider economy, it’s generally agreed that the U.K.’s GDP is around 5% lower than it would have been<\/a>, had Britain not voted to leave the bloc.<\/p>\n![\"Banks](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/104226861-GettyImages-631902232.jpg\")
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