When North Korea fired multiple ballistic missiles from its eastern coast in May, South Korea\u2019s response was swift. Within hours, Seoul joined Washington and Tokyo in condemning the launch as a \u201cserious threat\u201d to regional peace and security.<\/p>\n
But just weeks earlier<\/a>, when a North Korean KN-23 missile \u2013 designed to strike South Korean targets \u2013 hit a residential building in Kyiv, killing 12 civilians, Seoul said nothing.<\/p>\n That silence fits a broader pattern. There was no response when Russia reportedly deployed<\/a> a surface-to-air missile system to protect Pyongyang, nor when Ukrainian intelligence revealed that Russian instructors were training North Korean drone pilots<\/a> on home soil, even as Kim Jong-un voiced \u201cunconditional support<\/a>\u201d for Moscow\u2019s war.<\/p>\n Relations between the North and South, technically still at war, remain tense and the muted response has raised questions from analysts over whether Seoul fully grasps the consequences of what many see as North Korea\u2019s most significant military transformation in decades \u2013 one shaped in real warfare, on the battlefields of Ukraine.<\/p>\n \u201cWe definitely should be alarmed,\u201d says Chun In-bum, a former South Korean special forces commander. \u201cBut it\u2019s just the nature of people to avoid catastrophe or be indifferent to the terrors of reality.\u201d<\/p>\n Learning modern warfare<\/strong><\/p>\n According to Ukraine\u2019s military intelligence agency, North Korea supplies 40% of all munitions used by Russia<\/a> in its war against Kyiv. It has dramatically increased arms production at home, with Moscow paying Pyongyang directly.<\/p>\n In autumn last year, Pyongyang dispatched an estimated 12,000 troops to fight in Russia\u2019s Kursk region. That deployment has since expanded significantly. An additional 6,000 soldiers are now joined by 1,000 military engineers, hundreds of railway engineers, bridge-building specialists, logistics personnel, electricians, military police, and even interpreters, focused largely on rebuilding the battle-scarred Kursk region, according to Ukrainian officials.<\/p>\n Top: A firefighter extinguishes the remains of an unidentified missile, which Ukrainian authorities claim was made in North Korea. This military partnership with Moscow has been invaluable for Kim Jong-un\u2019s regime, Maj Gen Vadym Skibitskyi, deputy head of Ukraine\u2019s military intelligence agency, the HUR, told the Guardian.<\/p>\n \u201cNorth Korea\u2019s armed forces got new ammunition [from Russia]. Its soldiers gained experience of modern conflict. No other army in the region \u2013 Japan, South Korea and other countries \u2013 [has] participated in a modern war between two huge regular armies.\u201d<\/p>\n The ideological commitment of their forces became clear when Ukraine captured two wounded North Korean prisoners in January<\/a>.<\/p>\n \u201cWe were shocked by them. They were bio-robots. They tried to kill themselves by biting their own veins,\u201d Skibitskyi says. When one was asked if he wanted to return home, he replied: \u201cYes, because I will be treated like a hero. I fought in a modern war.\u201d<\/p>\n North Korean troops are learning about combined arms warfare and the operation of strike and reconnaissance drones, electronic warfare systems, and other technologies previously unfamiliar to them.<\/p>\n Moscow has transferred advanced weaponry and has helped upgrade the accuracy of North Korea\u2019s KN-23 ballistic missiles<\/a>, which have since targeted Ukrainian urban centres, including Kharkiv.<\/p>\n In June, the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, issued a pointed warning<\/a> identifying South Korea directly: \u201cThis must be addressed now, not when thousands of upgraded Shahed drones and ballistic missiles begin to threaten Seoul and Tokyo.\u201d<\/p>\n However, a mix of strategic, economic and political factors are discouraging more visible action from South Korea, says Dr Yang Uk, a defence expert at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies in Seoul.<\/p>\n Acknowledging North Korea\u2019s military experience as a direct threat to Seoul would create pressure for a more robust domestic response, including potential weapons transfers<\/a> to Ukraine that remain deeply unpopular in South Korea<\/a>.<\/p>\n \u201cDefence officials are particularly wary after December\u2019s events,\u201d Yang said, referring to the failed declaration of martial law<\/a> by South Korean\u2019s then president, Yoon Suk Yeol. \u201cThey\u2019re really afraid of political attack and prefer to stay unseen by the public and press.\u201d<\/p>\n North Korea\u2019s ruler, Kim Jong-un, and the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, at a welcoming ceremony in Pyongyang on 19 June 2024. Photograph: Vladimir Smirnov\/AFP\/Getty Images<\/p>\n Yang warns that Russia is working to integrate North Korea into its long-term defence supply chain \u2013 a partnership that could reshape Asia\u2019s military balance long after the war ends.<\/p>\n Some analysts see Seoul\u2019s silence as an extension of its longstanding \u201cstrategic ambiguity\u201d: a reluctance to engage in foreign conflicts or unnecessarily alienate key powers, particularly those that might retain influence over Pyongyang.<\/p>\n Economic factors weigh heavily too. Prewar, Russia was one of South Korea\u2019s top trading partners<\/a>. Amid Donald Trump\u2019s tariff threats, the new Lee Jae Myung government\u2019s focus on economic recovery and \u201cpragmatic diplomacy\u201d leaves little appetite for confrontation.<\/p>\n Domestic politics also play a role. Lee\u2019s Democratic party supports engagement<\/a> with the North, reflecting how South Korea\u2019s left-right divide centres more on North Korea policy<\/a> than on western progressive values. Voices on the left argue South Korea owes Ukraine nothing.<\/p>\n Old norms and modern threats<\/strong><\/p>\n Some of Seoul\u2019s inertia may be bureaucratic. Chun points to procurement and planning processes that can take years, even as threats evolve within months.<\/p>\n \u201cWe are dealing with a level 10 super Godzilla,\u201d he said. \u201cBut the bureaucracy only sees a tiger.\u201d<\/p>\n North Koreans are already employing what they have learned in battle, he warns. \u201cThis should be a real wake-up call.\u201d<\/p>\n Skibitskyi echoes that concern, suggesting South Korea\u2019s military doctrine is outdated and modelled on a pre-drone era.<\/p>\n When asked by the Guardian whether it viewed North Korea\u2019s deployments and combat experience in Ukraine as a security concern, South Korea\u2019s defence ministry avoided addressing the implications directly.<\/p>\n \u201cThe participation of North Korean military personnel in the war in Ukraine constitutes a flagrant violation of the UN charter and relevant UN security council resolutions,\u201d a spokesperson said. \u201cThe Republic of Korea strongly condemns such inhumane and unlawful acts in concert with the international community.\u201d<\/p>\n Whether Seoul\u2019s cautious approach reflects calculated long-term strategy or institutional paralysis remains unclear.<\/p>\n But for Chun, the warning signs are impossible to ignore.<\/p>\n \u201cThis is like a speeding train coming towards you,\u201d he said. \u201cYou better move aside or start making preparations \u2013 while you still have time.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"When North Korea fired multiple ballistic missiles from its eastern coast in May, South Korea\u2019s response was swift.…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":286746,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7654],"tags":[2000,299,657],"class_list":{"0":"post-286745","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ukraine","8":"tag-eu","9":"tag-europe","10":"tag-ukraine"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@uk\/114905811679990768","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/286745","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=286745"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/286745\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/286746"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=286745"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=286745"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=286745"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
Above: Part of a missile. Photograph: Reuters<\/p>\n