{"id":294386,"date":"2025-07-26T22:35:14","date_gmt":"2025-07-26T22:35:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/294386\/"},"modified":"2025-07-26T22:35:14","modified_gmt":"2025-07-26T22:35:14","slug":"england-vs-spain-prediction-womens-euro-2025-final-preview","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/294386\/","title":{"rendered":"England vs Spain Prediction: Women&#8217;s Euro 2025 Final Preview"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><strong>It\u2019s the European<br \/>\nchampions against the world champions. Will England retain their<br \/>\ncrown, or is it finally Spain\u2019s turn to lift the trophy? We preview<br \/>\nthe UEFA <a href=\"https:\/\/theanalyst.com\/competition\/uefa-euros-women\/articles\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Women\u2019s<br \/>\nEuro 2025<\/a> final with our England vs Spain<br \/>\nprediction.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><strong>England vs Spain Stats: The Key<br \/>\nInsights<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>According to the <a href=\"https:\/\/theanalyst.com\/competition\/uefa-euros-women\/predictions\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Opta<br \/>\nsupercomputer<\/a>, Spain lift the trophy in 51.5% of its current<br \/>\n10,000 simulations, while England are triumphant in 48.5%.<\/li>\n<li>England are the third European team to reach the final of three<br \/>\nconsecutive major tournaments (Euros\/World Cup) after Germany (3,<br \/>\n1995-1997 and 5, 2001-2009) and Norway (5, 1987-1993).<\/li>\n<li>This will be Spain\u2019s first ever UEFA Women\u2019s Euros final, with<br \/>\n2025 just the second final in the last nine editions to see a<br \/>\nfirst-time finalist (in 2017 with both Denmark and the<br \/>\nNetherlands). \u00a0\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Sunday\u2019s Women\u2019s Euro 2025 final sees England and Spain battle<br \/>\nonce again, in a repeat of the 2023 FIFA World Cup final.<\/p>\n<p>This is just the second time there\u2019s been the same fixture in<br \/>\nback-to-back Women\u2019s World Cup\/Euros finals, along with Germany<br \/>\nversus Sweden (2001 Euros, 2003 World Cup), won both times by the<br \/>\nGermans.<\/p>\n<p>Can England make history by becoming just the second nation to<br \/>\ndefend their European Championship crown, along with Germany (1989<br \/>\nand 1991, then 1995 through 2013)?\u00a0Let\u2019s dive into where this<br \/>\ngame could be won and lost.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Super<br \/>\nSubs Rescue England Again<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Another match, another dramatic comeback. England really know<br \/>\nhow to keep a nation\u2019s heart racing.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Much like the clash with Sweden, it was the substitutes who<br \/>\nembodied England\u2019s relentless spirit against Italy, giving us a<br \/>\npowerful reminder that the Lionesses are never quite<br \/>\ndone.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>England are the first team to progress from both the<br \/>\nquarter-final and semi-final in a single edition of the UEFA<br \/>\nWomen\u2019s Euros having conceded the first goal in both<br \/>\nmatches.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Sarina Wiegman\u2019s substitute decisions never seem to falter,<br \/>\nthough, and she is now the first-ever men\u2019s or women\u2019s manager to<br \/>\nreach five international tournament finals in a row.<\/p>\n<p>During England\u2019s comeback-win over Italy, substitutes Beth Mead,<br \/>\nChloe Kelly, and Michelle Agyemang each contributed to four<br \/>\nsequences in open play which led to a shot, underscoring their<br \/>\nroles in England\u2019s attack off the bench and demonstrating the<br \/>\ndifferent weapons Wiegman is able to call upon. \u00a0<\/p>\n<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"768\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/england-sequence-involvements-vs-italy-1024x768.jpeg\" alt=\"england sequence involvements vs italy\" class=\"wp-image-200276\"  \/><\/p>\n<p>Indeed, it was two substitutes who came to England\u2019s rescue in<br \/>\nthe nick of time. Agyemang\u2019s equaliser at 95:01 was the Lionessess\u2019<br \/>\nlatest goal on record (since 2013) in a match at the UEFA Women\u2019s<br \/>\nEuro\u2019s (excluding extra-time), while Kelly\u2019s winning strike in the<br \/>\n119th minute was the latest goal ever scored in the tournament\u2019s<br \/>\nhistory.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>England have relied on their teenage saviour Agyemang to send<br \/>\nboth of their knockout games to extra-time. The Arsenal forward is<br \/>\nthe first teenager to net twice at a single edition of the<br \/>\ncompetition since Cecilie Pedersen for Norway in 2009.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>At Euro 2025, Agyemang has been a standout attacking force from<br \/>\nthe bench, averaging \u00a0a staggering 6.1 shots per 90 minutes of<br \/>\naction, more than double that of Alessia Russo (2.9). Agyemang\u2019s<br \/>\nalso proving more accurate, landing 2.0 shots on target per 90<br \/>\ncompared to Russo\u2019s 0.6.<\/p>\n<p>It is worth clarifying that Agyemang has only played 89 minutes<br \/>\nof action in total, but this sharpness in front of goal highlights<br \/>\nthe youngster\u2019s growing importance in England\u2019s forward<br \/>\nline.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>She displays an uncanny ability to get into dangerous areas,<br \/>\nrecording 15.2 touches in the opposition box per 90 minutes at the<br \/>\ntournament so far \u2013 that\u2019s more than any other player in the<br \/>\ncompetition and almost double Russo\u2019s 7.6. Agyemang\u2019s clinical<br \/>\npresence whether from the bench or from the off could be the key<br \/>\ndifference in a tight clash with Spain.\u202f\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>She has now scored in three of her four international<br \/>\nappearances, averaging a goal every 33 minutes, the best across all<br \/>\nEngland players since her debut in April 2025.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Chloe Kelly is another player who\u2019s had a huge impact off the<br \/>\nbench.<\/p>\n<p>She\u2019s created 4.3 chances per 90 at Euro 2025 so far. Not only<br \/>\nis that more than both England\u2019s wide starters Lauren Hemp (2.4)<br \/>\nand Lauren James (1.8), but also ranks second across all players at<br \/>\nEuro 2025 to have played over 150+ minutes, behind Vicky L\u00f3pez of<br \/>\nSpain.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"1024\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/chloe-kelly-chances-created-euro-2025-1024x1024.jpeg\" alt=\"Chloe Kelly chances created Euro 2025\" class=\"wp-image-200275\"  \/><\/p>\n<p>Since Opta has analysed major women\u2019s tournaments (2011), Kelly<br \/>\nhas the joint most chances created (8) and most successful crosses<br \/>\n(10) of any substitute in a single tournament.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The Arsenal forward has been a real threat from out wide,<br \/>\nshowing a desire to create constant chaos in the opponent\u2019s penalty<br \/>\narea by getting the ball into the box. As well as her frequent<br \/>\ncrosses, she\u2019s averaged 14.9 passes played into the opposition area<br \/>\nper 90 \u2013 the most of any player in the tournament. \u00a0<\/p>\n<p>There\u2019s also a lot to be said about her mentality. When the<br \/>\npressure\u2019s on, Kelly delivers. Time and time again, she\u2019s been<br \/>\nEngland\u2019s go-to player in the biggest moments, and once again, she<br \/>\nrose to the occasion against Italy.<\/p>\n<p>From her extra-time winner in the Euro 2022 final to calmly<br \/>\nslotting the decisive penalty in the 2023 Finalissima, Kelly has<br \/>\nbuilt a reputation as England\u2019s ultimate clutch player.<\/p>\n<p>So, when the penalty fell to her in the 119th minute against Les<br \/>\nAzzurre, it felt almost inevitable. She was always going to be the<br \/>\none to pounce on the rebound, firing England into their third<br \/>\nstraight major tournament final.<\/p>\n<p>With Lauren James forced off at half-time against Italy due to<br \/>\nan ankle injury, maybe Wiegman could look to Kelly to make an<br \/>\nimpact from the outset of this final.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><strong>Defensive Durability<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>While centre-back pair Leah Williamson and Esme Morgan had only<br \/>\nstarted three games together prior to Tuesday\u2019s game, last doing so<br \/>\nin May 2025 during the Lionesses\u2019 6-0 battering of Portugal,<br \/>\nEngland certainly looked more assured at the back.<\/p>\n<p>Italy had their moments, but England limited their opponents to<br \/>\nfive shots on target; only against Spain (2) have Italy had fewer<br \/>\nat the tournament.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"768\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/england-vs-italy-xg-graphic-1024x768.jpeg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-200304\"  \/><\/p>\n<p>On her ninth ever start for the Lionesses, and first at a major<br \/>\ntournament (Euros\/World Cup), Morgan won all three of her tackles<br \/>\nand cleared the ball 10 times against Italy, the most for an<br \/>\nEngland player across a game at Euro 2025, while also maintaining a<br \/>\n100% passing accuracy into the final third. \u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Finally, Hannah Hampton continues to deliver when it matters<br \/>\nmost. Her crucial double save in the 87th minute felt like the<br \/>\ngame\u2019s turning point; marking the moment England were not done and<br \/>\ndestined to reach the final. She has shown exactly why she is<br \/>\nChelsea\u2019s number one.<\/p>\n<p>For Spain, Wednesday\u2019s semi-final clash showed exactly why<br \/>\nAitiana Bonmat\u00ed is the current Ballon d\u2019or holder, with the<br \/>\nplaymaker helping her nation eliminate Germany. It was the first<br \/>\ntime Germany had got this far in a Euros tournament and not<br \/>\nprogressed to the final since the 1993 edition, ending their run of<br \/>\nseven consecutive progressions from semi-final to final.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"768\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/germany-vs-spain-xg-graphic-1024x768.jpeg\" alt=\"Germany vs Spain xG graphic\" class=\"wp-image-200278\"  \/><\/p>\n<p>In fact, Spain\u2019s semi-final win marked their first ever victory<br \/>\nover Germany on what was their ninth attempt (D3 L5). Indeed prior<br \/>\nto the game, La Roja had lost each of their previous four<br \/>\ncompetitive games against them without scoring a goal.<\/p>\n<p>Furthermore, this was the first time Germany failed to record a<br \/>\nshot on target in the first half of a major tournament match<br \/>\n(Euros\/World Cup) since the 2015 FIFA World Cup semi-final vs USA.<br \/>\nTwo of their three attempts on target during normal time came in<br \/>\nthe 94th minute.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s fair to say the Spanish were made to work hard for that<br \/>\nopener, but victory means they have now won six consecutive<br \/>\nknockout stage matches at major tournaments (Euros &amp; World<br \/>\nCup); only one European nation has ever had a longer such streak<br \/>\nacross the two competitions, with Germany winning 13 in a row<br \/>\nbetween 2001 and 2009.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Ballon<br \/>\nd\u2019or Brilliance<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Bonmat\u00ed\u2019s strike in the 113th-minute was the first goal Spain<br \/>\nhad scored against Germany since November 2011 (2-2 draw in a UEFA<br \/>\nWomen\u2019s Euros qualifier), and it was also her country\u2019s latest goal<br \/>\nat a major tournament (Euros\/World Cup).<\/p>\n<p>This tournament has become a showcase of last-minute heroics.<br \/>\nThere have been 11 goals scored at UEFA Women\u2019s Euros 2025 in the<br \/>\n90th minute or later during normal time (9) and extra-time (2), the<br \/>\nmost such goals in a single edition of the tournament.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Able to find that moment of magic in the tightest of moments,<br \/>\ncatching out the outstanding Ann-Katrin Berger at her near post,<br \/>\nBonmat\u00ed has shown just the generational talent she is. Berger had<br \/>\nsaved each of her last 15 shots on target in the tournament up<br \/>\nuntil Bonmat\u00ed\u2019s winning goal but was caught out by the Spaniard\u2019s<br \/>\nimpudent finish.<\/p>\n<p>Although this was her first goal of Euro 2025, Bonmat\u00ed is now<br \/>\nlevel with Jenni Hermoso for most the goals scored in<br \/>\nknockout-stage games for Spain across major tournaments (3<br \/>\neach).\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The Barcelona midfielder also ranked top versus Germany<br \/>\nalongside Patri for passes played in the final third (34), while<br \/>\nher six touches in the German penalty area were topped only by<br \/>\nGermany\u2019s Klara B\u00fchl and teammate Esther Gonzalez with seven.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s no surprise that across Europe\u2019s top five leagues during<br \/>\nthe 2024-25 season, Bonmat\u00ed ranked third for chances created (69),<br \/>\nand first in the Spanish Primera Divisi\u00f3n Femenina.<\/p>\n<p>Athenea del Castillo assist for Bonmat\u00ed\u2019s winner against Germany<br \/>\nmeans she\u2019s been involved in six goals in her last seven<br \/>\nappearances in all competitions (5 goals, 1 assist), scoring or<br \/>\nassisting every 40 minutes across those matches.<\/p>\n<p>Her midfield companion Patri Guijarro led all players for<br \/>\nchances created from open play against Germany (4). Indeed, the<br \/>\nonly player on record (since 2013) to create more in a UEFA Women\u2019s<br \/>\nEuros match against Germany was also Patri (five in a group stage<br \/>\nmatch in 2022).<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"768\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/patri-passes-against-germany-euro-2025-1024x768.jpeg\" alt=\"Patri passes against Germany Euro 2025\" class=\"wp-image-200279\"  \/><\/p>\n<p>She completed 109 passes in the semi-final against Germany, the<br \/>\nmost by a midfielder in a game at this year\u2019s tournament. Overall,<br \/>\nshe\u2019s completed 401 passes at the 2025 UEFA Women\u2019s Euros, with<br \/>\nonly two players completing more on record since 2013 \u2013 England\u2019s<br \/>\nLeah Williamson in 2022 (461) and Denmark\u2019s Katrine Pedersen<br \/>\n(403).<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, Spain\u2019s Al\u00e8xia Putellas has been involved in the most<br \/>\ngoals (3 goals, 4 assists) and created the most chances (18) of any<br \/>\nplayer at the UEFA Women\u2019s Euros 2025 but is still searching for<br \/>\nher first goal or assist in any of her nine international knockout<br \/>\nappearances.<\/p>\n<p>One of Putellas\u2019 major assets in her press resistance. She has<br \/>\nreceived the most high pressures from opponents (307) and has the<br \/>\nbest pass accuracy under high pressure (86.6%) of any player to<br \/>\nattempt 100+ passes while under high pressure. She\u2019s also created<br \/>\nthe most chances under high pressure (13) of any player.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Spain\u2019s midfield will undoubtedly be a cause for a concern for<br \/>\nEngland; both Patri and Putellas lead the tournament for<br \/>\nshot-ending sequence involvements with 49, showing just how<br \/>\ninvolved they are in driving Spain forward. How will Wiegman\u2019s side<br \/>\nbe able to stop the trio of Bonmat\u00ed, Putellas and Patri from<br \/>\ncausing chaos?<\/p>\n<p>Overall, Spain have been phenomenal going forwards. They\u2019ve<br \/>\naveraged 24 shots per game at the 2025 Women\u2019s Euros (120 in 5<br \/>\ngames), the best by a nation at a major tournament since Germany at<br \/>\nthe 2015 Women\u2019s World Cup (26 per game), while their average of<br \/>\n621 completed passes per game is the most by a nation at a<br \/>\ntournament on record since 2011. \u00a0<\/p>\n<p>England and Spain have faced each other three times previously<br \/>\nat the UEFA Women\u2019s Euros, with those games coming in the three<br \/>\nprevious tournaments before 2025. Spain won 3-2 in the group stage<br \/>\nin 2013, while the Lionesses were victorious 2-0 in 2017 in the<br \/>\ngroup stage and won 2-1 in the 2022 quarter-final.<\/p>\n<p>Winning each of their last 10 matches in all competitions and<br \/>\nscoring 38 goals, Spain last enjoyed a longer winning run between<br \/>\nMarch 2020 and November 2021, when they won 16 games consecutively<br \/>\nand they will look to extend that streak against the Lionesses and<br \/>\nclaim European glory. \u00a0<\/p>\n<p><strong><strong>England vs Spain Prediction<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The supercomputer is leaning slightly in Spain\u2019s favour,<br \/>\npredicting them to be crowned European champions in 51.5% of<br \/>\nsimulations. Holders England are victorious in 48.5%.<\/p>\n<p>Spain secure victory within 90 minutes in 37.8% of scenarios,<br \/>\nwhile England do so in 35.3%. Extra time needed in 26.9% of<br \/>\ncases.<\/p>\n<p>Will England avenge their World Cup final defeat, or can Spain<br \/>\ncomplete their trophy cabinet set, becoming the first European<br \/>\nnation to lift the World Cup and Euros at consecutive tournaments<br \/>\nsince Germany between 2001 and 2009 (five in a row).<\/p>\n<p>The showpiece of the year is here, a repeat of the famous 2023<br \/>\nFIFA World Cup final, who do you have your bets on?<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1080\" height=\"1350\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/womens-euro-2025-final-prediction.png\" alt=\"Womens Euro 2025 Final Prediction\" class=\"wp-image-200448\"  \/><\/p>\n<p><strong><strong>England vs Spain Squads<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>England<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Hannah Hampton, Lucy Bronze, Niamh Charles, Keira Walsh, Alex<br \/>\nGreenwood, Leah Williamson, Lauren James, Georgia Stanway, Beth<br \/>\nMead, Ella Toone, Lauren Hemp, Maya Le Tissier, Anna Moorhouse,<br \/>\nGrace Clinton, Esme Morgan, Jess Carter, Michelle Agyemang, Chloe<br \/>\nKelly, Aggie Beever-Jones, Jess Park, Khiara Keating, Lotte<br \/>\nWubben-Moy, Alessia Russo.<\/p>\n<p>Head Coach: Sarina Wiegman<\/p>\n<p><strong>Spain<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Esther Sullastres, Cata Coll, Adriana Nanclares, Laia<br \/>\nAleixandri, Ona Batlle, Olga Carmona, Jana Fernandez, Maria Mendez,<br \/>\nLeila Ouahabi, Irene Paredes, Aitana Bonmati, Patricia Guijarro,<br \/>\nVicky Lopez, Alexia Putellas, Maite Zubieta, Mariona Caldentey,<br \/>\nAthenea del Castillo, Lucia Garcia, Esther Gonzalez, Cristina<br \/>\nMartin-Prieto, Salma Paralluelo, Claudia Pina, Alba Redondo.<\/p>\n<p>Head Coach: Montse Tom\u00e9<\/p>\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><strong><strong>Subscribe to<br \/>\nour\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/theanalyst.com\/sign-up\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">football<br \/>\nnewsletter<\/a>\u00a0to receive exclusive weekly content. You should<br \/>\nalso follow our social accounts over on\u00a0<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.twitter.com\/OptaAnalyst\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>X<\/strong><\/a><strong>,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/optaanalyst\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Instagram<\/a>,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/@optaanalyst\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">TikTok<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/theoptaanalyst\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Facebook<\/a>.<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><script async src=\"\/\/www.instagram.com\/embed.js\"><\/script><script async src=\"\/\/www.tiktok.com\/embed.js\"><\/script><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"It\u2019s the European champions against the world champions. Will England retain their crown, or is it finally Spain\u2019s&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":294387,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5312],"tags":[2000,299,104],"class_list":{"0":"post-294386","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-spain","8":"tag-eu","9":"tag-europe","10":"tag-spain"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@uk\/114921925955619718","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/294386","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=294386"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/294386\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/294387"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=294386"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=294386"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=294386"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}