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UNH<\/a> :<\/strong>UnitedHealth Group (UNH) has tanked ~50% in the past year, but the July 29 (VERY SOON) earnings could flip the script. As a historically dominant player, UNH is now undervalued amid sector weakness, offering massive upside if regulatory fears ease. <\/p>\n
Here’s my full bull case. \ud83d\udc47 FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS<\/p>\n
Why the Sell-Off? A Perfect Storm of Bad News<\/strong> This erased gains (down 7% over 5 years), amplified by healthcare sector outflows\u2014the biggest since 2020. But is this overblown? Signs point to yes. The markets almost always overreact to bad news. <\/p>\n Bullish Signals: Insiders Betting Big <\/strong> Plus, UNH’s dividend yield is at a record ~3% (vs. 1.5% avg), with 16%+ historical growth and 100%+ free cash flow conversion. Rare combo of yield + growth!<\/p>\n Valuation: Screaming Buy?<\/strong><\/p>\n Models confirm:<\/p>\n Still, there is fear of DOJ uncertainty\u2014investors hate unpredictability and that’s why the stock is so low. <\/p>\n Key Catalyst: July 29 Earnings<\/strong> Positive news = potential rocket \ud83d\ude80. Expectations are low (20 bearish EPS revisions vs. 0 bullish), so a beat could spark volatility… upward.<\/p>\n Risks: Not Without Bumps<\/strong><\/p>\n TECHNICAL ANALYSIS<\/p>\n I also did a little technical analysis:<\/strong><\/p>\n THE PLAN<\/p>\n My plan:<\/strong> Quick note: I’m just sharing my journey – not financial advice! \ud83d\ude0a<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The healthcare sector has been in decline, which creates interesting opportunities. I recently talked about a few pharma…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":300405,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4316],"tags":[105,4348,16,15],"class_list":{"0":"post-300404","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-healthcare","8":"tag-health","9":"tag-healthcare","10":"tag-uk","11":"tag-united-kingdom"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@uk\/114934906643227138","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/300404","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=300404"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/300404\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/300405"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=300404"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=300404"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=300404"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
UNH crushed the market for 15 straight years (2009-2023) with positive returns, predictable EPS growth, and 134% gains over the last decade.
But 2024 brought chaos:<\/p>\n\n
The tide is turning:<\/p>\n\n
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This could be UNH’s “most important report ever.” Watch for:<\/p>\n\n
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Later today, I will allocate 1% to 1.5% of my portfolio to the stock. If it drops, I will continue to DCA. The stock is already really beaten down, and I think a company this large cannot drop much more. <\/p>\n