3h agoWed 30 Jul 2025 at 9:13pmMarket snapshot<\/p>\n
Prices current around 7:10am AEST<\/p>\n
Live updates on the major ASX indices:<\/b><\/p>\n
11m agoThu 31 Jul 2025 at 12:24amAustralian shares open lower as tariff deadline looms<\/p>\n
Most sectors on the local market remain in the red<\/b> 20 minutes into the session, while the ASX 200 is currently down half a per cent<\/b> overall.<\/p>\n
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ASX 200 sectors (LSEG Refinitiv)<\/p>\n
Flight Centre shares are down 7.2 per cent after it lowered its profit guidance.<\/b><\/p>\n
Miners are also a major drag, led by a 7.8 per cent fall for Mineral Resources<\/b>. Beach Energy shares are off 10.9 per cent<\/b>, weighing on the energy sector.<\/p>\n
28m agoThu 31 Jul 2025 at 12:06amASX opening in the red<\/p>\n
It’s very early days as stocks are just coming online, but we currently have the ASX 200 down 0.6 per cent<\/b>.<\/p>\n
31m agoThu 31 Jul 2025 at 12:03am<\/p>\n
The balancing act of individual RBA board members speaking<\/p>\n
Andrew Hauser’s answer to my question about RBA board members giving speeches\u00a0\u2014 something that was a recommendation of the RBA review\u00a0\u2014 is quite revealing of the tensions involved.<\/p>\n
There’s no point in the board members speaking individually if they, as Andrew Hauser put it, simply “parrot” the views of the board as a whole, as already expressed by RBA staff like himself and the governor, Michele Bullock.<\/p>\n
Equally, he said board members won’t be able to say how they or other board members voted on contested monetary policy decisions.<\/p>\n
A tricky balance.<\/p>\n
35m agoWed 30 Jul 2025 at 11:59pm<\/p>\n
RBA still working out how board member engagement will look<\/p>\n
Our business editor, Michael Janda, is up with a question and asks whether RBA board members will be able to speak freely on their views or whether their comments will be vetted by the central bank, when an upcoming review recommendation to hear from board members is more broadly implemented.<\/p>\n
“We’re still working that out, I’ll be totally honest with you,” Andrew Hauser says.<\/p>\n
He says the public engagement strategy won’t just be about speeches, mentioning other mediums like podcasts.<\/p>\n
“It’s also about listening,” he notes, saying board members will go to events and hear from the businesses and other community members.<\/p>\n
39m agoWed 30 Jul 2025 at 11:56pm<\/p>\n
What would RBA like to see from productivity roundtable?<\/p>\n
Wavestone Capital portfolio manager Catherine Allfrey asks what the RBA would like to see from the upcoming productivity roundtable.<\/p>\n
Andrew Hauser says it’s not for the RBA to weigh in on.<\/p>\n
\n“We take the economy as it is and deliver our mandate,” Mr Hauser says.<\/p>\n
“They are political choices \u2026 any central bank that plays in that space risks their credibility.”<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n
45m agoWed 30 Jul 2025 at 11:50pm<\/p>\n
How does the RBA define full employment?<\/p>\n
Even though unemployment recently jumped from 4.1 to 4.3%, RBA deputy governor Andrew Hauser says the Australian economy remains near “full employment”.<\/p>\n
Orthodox economists define “full employment” as the level of unemployment compatible with inflation remaining within the central bank’s target range, in Australia, 2-3%.<\/p>\n
Many economists have suggested that, for whatever reason, the unemployment rate compatible with “full employment”\u00a0\u2014 the NAIRU, or non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment\u00a0\u2014 has fallen, perhaps to 4 per cent or less.<\/p>\n
It seems Hauser is sticking with the RBA’s previous estimates that full employment is somewhere around 4.25-4.5%.<\/p>\n
47m agoWed 30 Jul 2025 at 11:47pm<\/p>\n
Consumer confidence weak but hasn’t got worse: Hauser<\/p>\n
Barrenjoey chief economist Jo Masters turns the conversation to the consumer.<\/p>\n
Andrew Hauser notes<\/b> that consumer confidence remains weak, but hasn’t got worse <\/b>(or better, for that matter).<\/p>\n
“There are reasons for optimism,” he notes, including real income growth and a pick-up in consumption growth overseas.<\/p>\n
\n“This is one of the areas of debate on the board, to be honest, how much momentum there is in the economy,” Mr Hauser says.<\/p>\n
“On balance, we’re going to continue to hope and pray and forecast that consumption growth will pick up.”<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n
50m agoWed 30 Jul 2025 at 11:45pm<\/p>\n
Pay attention to RBA forecasts: Hauser<\/p>\n
RBA deputy Andrew Hauser, despite earlier saying that it was relatively rare for economic forecasts to be completely right, says investors (and those interested in where interest rates are heading) should pay more attention to the bank’s forecasts.<\/p>\n
Inflation figures out yesterday were broadly in line (maybe just a touch higher) than what the bank expected when it last updated those forecasts in May.<\/p>\n
Based on what the RBA governor has previously said, it seems that it should give a green light to lower interest rates on August 12.<\/p>\n
But, after July’s surprise hold, no-one is prepared to express too much certainty!<\/p>\n
52m agoWed 30 Jul 2025 at 11:42pm<\/p>\n
We don’t name names, says RBA deputy governor<\/p>\n
Reserve Bank deputy governor Andrew Hauser says, in order to keep the focus on the policy arguments, the RBA won’t name names of who votes what way at its monetary policy board meetings.<\/p>\n
He says it allows for a more open debate.<\/p>\n
56m agoWed 30 Jul 2025 at 11:38pm<\/p>\n
Labour market close to full employment: RBA’s Hauser<\/p>\n
Mr Hauser has reiterated what the RBA governor, Michele Bullock,\u00a0<\/b>said in the wake of a rise in unemployment shown in figures released since the last central bank meeting.<\/p>\n
While the rise in the unemployment rate had surprised the market and economists, Mr Hauser (echoing Ms Bullock) said it was in line with the RBA’s forecasts and consistent with the “broad coming into balance” of the economy.<\/p>\n
He says there are different views on the RBA board about exactly how tight the labour market is<\/b>, but that the “labour market is close to whatever full employment means”.<\/p>\n
You can read more on the governor’s earlier speech on inflation and employment here:<\/p>\n
1h agoWed 30 Jul 2025 at 11:35pmRBA deputy Andrew Hauser says bank not getting carried away with forecast accuracy<\/p>\n
I am sitting in a room full of investment bankers, analysts and economists, including former RBA governor Phil Lowe, who is sitting one person over from me.<\/p>\n
We’re all listening to RBA deputy governor Andrew Hauser chatting with Barrenjoey’s chief economist Jo Masters.<\/p>\n
We’ll get to some questions towards the end, including hopefully one from me…<\/p>\n
For the time being, the discussion started with yesterday’s inflation data, which came in almost bang in line with the Reserve Bank’s most recent May forecasts.<\/p>\n
But Hauser says the bank’s economists are not getting carried away with that because it’s quite rare, and usually a bit lucky, for actual data to land so close to the forecast.<\/p>\n
I’ll have more analysis of Hauser’s speech and Q&A.<\/p>\n
Jo Masters and Andrew Hauser (RBA)<\/p>\n
1h agoWed 30 Jul 2025 at 11:30pm<\/p>\n
RBA’s Hauser says tariff impact better than feared so far<\/p>\n
Barrenjoey’s Jo Masters asks the RBA’s Andrew Hauser about tariffs \u2014 he says, so far, the impact of Donald Trump’s tariffs has been “substantially better than feared in the worst case”.<\/p>\n
He says the worst of threatened tariffs hasn’t eventuated, particularly in terms of retaliatory measures.<\/p>\n
“Maybe the system globally and in Australia too is more resilient” than expected, he notes, while saying that stockpiling has also cushioned the impact.<\/p>\n
Mr Hauser says another reason the fallout so far hasn’t been so bad could be a negative one \u2014 “it’s coming, but it just hasn’t come yet”, likening it to Brexit.<\/p>\n
“Good news that it hasn’t been as severe yet as feared \u2026 but we’re paid to worry”, he notes, and says the concern that it’s just a drawn-out impact is on the RBA’s mind.<\/p>\n
1h agoWed 30 Jul 2025 at 11:24pmInflation easing welcome: RBA deputy governor<\/p>\n
Reserve Bank deputy governor Andrew Hauser<\/b>\u00a0has framed yesterday’s inflation number as “very welcome”<\/b>\u00a0during a “fireside chat” with Barrenjoey’s chief economist Jo Masters in Sydney.<\/p>\n
Inflation eased further in the June quarter, with consumer prices rising at an annual pace of 2.1 per cent, down from 2.4 per cent in the March quarter.<\/p>\n
The “trimmed mean” measure of inflation, which is the Reserve Bank’s preferred measure of underlying inflation, also declined.<\/p>\n
It fell from 2.9 to 2.7 per cent between March and June, which broadly matches the Reserve Bank’s forecasts from May.<\/p>\n
You can catch up with this piece from Gareth Hutchens<\/b>:<\/p>\n
1h agoWed 30 Jul 2025 at 11:19pmSouth Korean president responds to US trade agreement<\/p>\n
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AUDUSD over last 48 hours (LSEG Refinitiv)<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/lcimg-eb0432fc-9cf4-4146-884f-9c3ed8e00fd5.png\")
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Donald Trump social post (Truth Social)<\/p>\n