{"id":307100,"date":"2025-07-31T17:17:16","date_gmt":"2025-07-31T17:17:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/307100\/"},"modified":"2025-07-31T17:17:16","modified_gmt":"2025-07-31T17:17:16","slug":"september-fed-rate-cuts-odds-drop-to-43-will-bitcoins-bull-run-hold","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/307100\/","title":{"rendered":"September Fed rate cuts odds drop to 43% – Will Bitcoin’s bull run hold?\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"

\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tKey Takeaways<\/strong><\/p>\n

Fed\u2019s rate cuts expectation for September dropped by 20% as traders repriced their previous bullish outlook. Will the high unrealized profit slow the BTC bull run?<\/p>\n

Bitcoin [BTC]<\/a> briefly dropped to $115.7K following Fed chair Jerome Powell\u2019s hawkish tone after holding interest rates steady<\/a> on the 30th of July.\u00a0<\/p>\n

While the decision was expected, his cautious outlook and a \u2018wait and see\u2019 approach for a September triggered a further risk-off move. Powell cited inflation risk from tariffs and noted<\/a>,\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n

\u201cFor the time being, we\u2019re well-positioned to learn more about the likely course of the economy and the evolving balance of risks before adjusting our policy stance.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

The market quickly repriced the September rate cuts expectations following his statement.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Fed rate cuts expectations dip
\n\"Fed<\/a><\/p>\n

Source: CME Fed Watch tool<\/p>\n

Before the July Fed rate decision, the odds of September rate cuts were above 63%. <\/p>\n

As of press time, the chance for a 25 bps cut dropped<\/a> to 43% while another steady rate (4.25%-4.50%) expectation surged to 57%.\u00a0<\/p>\n

In most cases, a looser interest rate policy always boosts risk assets like stocks and crypto, Matt Mena, crypto strategist at 21Shares, told AMBCrypto.<\/p>\n

He added,\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n

\u201cFor crypto, a Fed pivot could serve as a major tailwind. Looser financial conditions and rate cuts have historically fueled risk assets like Bitcoin, which has long acted as a sponge for excess liquidity.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

However, the Fed\u2019s cautious stance could slow the ongoing bull run. But Mena noted that all conditions were set for a likely dovish pivot,\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n

\u201cThe setup increasingly resembles Q4 2023 \u2013 softening inflation, rising political volatility, and a Fed constrained by lagging indicators, which saw Bitcoin end the following year at $100K. The stage is set for a policy pivot. The only question is when.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

At press time, though, BTC bounced back 2% to $118.5K, but most altcoins didn\u2019t follow suit ahead of inflation data (PCE Index).\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Source: BTC\/USDT, TradingView<\/p>\n

According to Mena, if the $114K-$115K support cracks, then BTC could go lower to $110K.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Another risk factor for the market rally was rising BTC profitability. <\/p>\n

Glassnode highlighted<\/a>\u00a0that BTC\u2019s unrealized profit hit a record high of $1.4 trillion, and the relative unrealized profit hit levels that triggered past ATH conditions and sell pressure.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"Fed<\/a><\/p>\n

Source: Glassnode<\/p>\n

But crypto analytics firm Swissblock held<\/a> that the BTC rally could go higher if QE (quantitative easing) or a surge in dollar liquidity begins.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"Fed<\/a><\/p>\n

Source: Swissblock<\/p>\n

In the short term, the macro pressure<\/a> could cap BTC below $120K and elevate profit-taking. However, any potential Fed pivot in the mid-term could spark a rebound.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tNext: Trump\u2019s 168-page crypto report promises \u2018The trading of digital assets at\u2026\u2019<\/a>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Key Takeaways Fed\u2019s rate cuts expectation for September dropped by 20% as traders repriced their previous bullish outlook.…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":307101,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[52,51,16,15],"class_list":{"0":"post-307100","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-business","8":"tag-ambcrypto","9":"tag-business","10":"tag-uk","11":"tag-united-kingdom"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@uk\/114948987176899774","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/307100","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=307100"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/307100\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/307101"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=307100"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=307100"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=307100"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}