According to Donald Trump\u2019s White House, the US economy is booming, inflation is dead and jobs are surging. A blizzard of economic reports has cast a pall on such claims in recent days.<\/p>\n
This week\u2019s data on Trump\u2019s early economic record was mixed \u2013 good, mad and ugly \u2013 with jobs numbers so weak he reached for the catchphrase he once used to build himself into a reality TV star: you\u2019re fired<\/a>.<\/p>\n The picture is chaotic, with robust headline growth in the world\u2019s largest economy, wild swings in trade, and a remarkable slowdown in the labor market.<\/p>\n For six months, Trump has staged an extraordinary campaign to overhaul the global economy and extract concessions from Washington\u2019s allies and rivals by threatening and imposing steep tariffs on their US exports.<\/p>\n But the unpredictable, erratic rollout of this strategy has already had bizarre consequences.<\/p>\n Resilient-ish growthCharts showing GDP growth<\/a><\/p>\n On the surface, at least, this week\u2019s deluge of data opened with good news: the US economy<\/a> returned to growth in the second quarter, with gross domestic product (GDP) \u2013 a broad measure of economic health \u2013 expanding at a rate not seen since last summer.<\/p>\n But this followed an unexpected contraction in the first quarter, and underlined some more concerning figures, such as a 15.6% drop in private domestic investment. Businesses have been struggling to keep up with the hour-by-hour jerks and jolts on sweeping economies policies.<\/p>\n Yes, there was good growth in the last quarter but in the first six months, the US economy grew at a mediocre 1.2%. The Wall Street Journal called it \u201cthe weirdest GDP report ever\u201d<\/a>.<\/p>\n Imports surge and plungeChart of import growth<\/a><\/p>\n Delve a bit deeper, and you start to see how the US economy is grappling with a series of extraordinary forces as Trump hammers out his trade strategy.<\/p>\n Firms spent much of the first quarter waiting for the president to reveal his plans for tariffs: which countries would be targeted, at what rates, and when. They stockpiled, triggering an unprecedented surge in imports that pushed growth into the red.<\/p>\n In the second quarter, however, as Trump started to ramp up his economic attacks, imports tumbled at an equally astonishing pace. Net exports \u2013 how much a country exports more than it imports \u2013 boosted GDP.<\/p>\n Interest rates on holdChart of interest rates<\/a><\/p>\n This is Trump\u2019s least favorite chart. Despite his many public demands, threats and attacks, the Federal Reserve has not yet cut interest rates this year.<\/p>\n Why? Jerome Powell, the central bank\u2019s chair, has repeatedly argued it should wait and see the impact of the president\u2019s trade strategy before moving. Fed officials are worried that inflation \u2013 despite Trump\u2019s claims that it has collapsed on his watch \u2013 has actually remained stubborn, and might rise as a result of his tariffs.<\/p>\n This has gone down extremely poorly in the White House, where officials are counting down the weeks until Powell\u2019s term as chair ends next May.<\/p>\n Jobs growth stallsChart showing job growth over time<\/a><\/p>\n