{"id":323671,"date":"2025-08-06T22:50:16","date_gmt":"2025-08-06T22:50:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/323671\/"},"modified":"2025-08-06T22:50:16","modified_gmt":"2025-08-06T22:50:16","slug":"trend-employment-growth-shifts-lower-standard-chartered","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/323671\/","title":{"rendered":"Trend employment growth shifts lower \u2013 Standard Chartered"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Immigration crackdown suggests much lower US trend employment growth than in the last few years. We estimate that the new equilibrium for monthly job growth is 100k. Recent <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fxstreet.com\/macroeconomics\/economic-indicator\/nfp\" data-fxs-autoanchor=\"\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">NFP<\/a> softness suggests that the labour market is now likely in excess supply, Standard Chartered&#8217;s Economist Dan Pan reports. <\/p>\n<p>Falling below a lower trend<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;An important question behind the recent employment slowdown is whether soft job growth is driven by lower labour supply or weaker demand. A slowdown in US labour supply driven by the Trump administration\u2019s immigration crackdown has long been anticipated. But if immigration growth falls back to the pre-pandemic norm as expected, what should trend employment growth be? In the absence of a surge in undocumented immigrant inflows, we see trend employment growth moving lower. This means that the amount of job creation needed to keep up with labour-supply growth and maintain a stable unemployment rate may be significantly lower than the last few years.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;We estimate that if annual growth in the foreign-born population returns to the pre-pandemic average of around 1.3% \u2013 a sharp slowdown from around 4% in 2022-24 \u2013 US trend employment growth will be running at around 100k per month, well below average NFP growth over the past three years. 70% of that trend job growth would be driven by population growth among native-born workers, while 30% would come from population growth among foreign-born workers. There are risks to our estimate in either direction. Trend employment growth might be lower if the Trump administration\u2019s immigration policy leads to a sharper slowdown or decline in foreign-born labour supply; if more native-born workers decide to return to the labour market after opting for early retirement during the pandemic, the trend employment may be pushed higher.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Our 100k trend estimate suggests that the labour market was likely in excess supply between May-July, when average NFP growth slowed sharply to 35k. Nevertheless, the deterioration in the labour market seems less dramatic considering weaker labour supply from foreign-born workers.&#8221;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Immigration crackdown suggests much lower US trend employment growth than in the last few years. We estimate that&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":68057,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3090],"tags":[331,51,17629,1700,3374,34320,16,15,1141],"class_list":{"0":"post-323671","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy","8":"tag-banks","9":"tag-business","10":"tag-economicindicator","11":"tag-economy","12":"tag-employment","13":"tag-nfp","14":"tag-uk","15":"tag-united-kingdom","16":"tag-unitedstates"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@uk\/114984270248415058","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/323671","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=323671"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/323671\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/68057"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=323671"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=323671"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=323671"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}