recent satellite imagery shows the site is continuing to expand<\/a>, with new production facilities and dorms that would allow it to scale up production exponentially. Analysts CNN spoke with believe this growth would allow Russia to potentially export an updated and battle-tested version of the drone it originally imported from Iran \u2013 maybe even to Tehran itself.\n <\/p>\n\n But a Western intelligence source says the expansion and the complete Russian integration of the Shahed-136, have effectively marginalized Iran, revealing a rift between Moscow and Tehran. They say Tehran has been growing increasingly impatient with the little return it\u2019s received from Russia, despite having supported Moscow\u2019s war effort with not just drones, but missiles and other assets.\n <\/p>\n
\n That discontent effectively boiled over throughout Israel\u2019s 12-day bombing campaign of targeting Iran\u2019s nuclear weapons program in June, during which Russia\u2019s statements of condemnation were seen as paltry support for a country that has been helping Moscow since the start of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.\n <\/p>\n
\n \u201cIran may have expected Russia to do more or take more steps without being required to do so,\u201d Ali Akbar Dareini, an analyst for the Tehran-based Center for Strategic Studies, the research arm of the Iranian President\u2019s office, told CNN. They may not intervene militarily, but they may beef operative support, in terms of weapons shipments, technological support, intelligence sharing, or things like that.\u201d\n <\/p>\n
\n But Russia\u2019s distant approach was not surprising for the Western intelligence official CNN spoke with, who argued it showed the \u201cpurely transactional and utilitarian nature\u201d of Russian cooperation with Iran.\n <\/p>\n
\n \u201cThis explicit disengagement demonstrates that Russia never intervenes beyond its immediate interests, even when a partner \u2013 here an essential supplier of drones \u2013 is attacked,\u201d they said.\n <\/p>\n
\n After Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, it began importing Iranian Shahed drones. By early 2023, Moscow and Tehran had inked a $1.75 billion deal for Russia to make the drones domestically.\n <\/p>\n
\n The 6,000 drones by September 2025 stipulated in the initial contract were manufactured about a year ahead of schedule and, according to Ukraine\u2019s Defense Intelligence, Alabuga is now pumping out more than 5,500 units per month. It\u2019s also doing so in a more efficient and cost-effective way.\n <\/p>\n
\n \u201cIn 2022, Russia paid an average of 200,000 US dollars for one such drone,\u201d a Ukrainian Defense Intelligence source said. \u201cIn 2025, that number came down to approximately 70,000 US dollars.\u201d\n <\/p>\n
\n Ukraine also said Russia has also modernized the drone, with improved communications, longer-lasting batteries and much larger warheads, making them deadlier and harder to bring down.\n <\/p>\n
\n The Western intelligence official said Iran initially seemed to embrace Russia\u2019s efforts to localize roughly 90% of production of the Shahed 136 at Alabuga but Moscow\u2019s upgrades seem to have caught it off guard.\n <\/p>\n
\n \u201cThis evolution marks a gradual loss of control for Iran over the final product, which is now largely manufactured locally and independently,\u201d the source explained. They added Moscow\u2019s end goal is \u201cto fully master the production cycle and free itself from future negotiations with Tehran.\u201d\n <\/p>\n
\n Dareini says Russia\u2019s predatory behavior is not surprising and describes the relationship between the two countries as \u201cboth cooperation and competition.\u201d\n <\/p>\n
\n \u201cIt\u2019s obvious that Russians want more, to get more and give less, and this is this applies to Iran as well,\u201d he explained. \u201cIran has provided Russia with drones and technology and the factory, and it has not been for free.\u201d\n <\/p>\n
\n But in the process of expanding, the official says, Alabuga has been unable to meet obligations to its Iranian partners. According to them, in addition to the loss of control over the final product, Iranian authorities and companies, namely Sahara Thunder, have complained that some payments have not been made, in part because of the suffocating international sanctions the Russian economy has been under for more than three years.\n <\/p>\n
\n CNN has been unable to independently verify this. CNN has reached out to the Alabuga administration for comment but has yet to hear back.\n <\/p>\n
\n \u201cThese obstacles add to Tehran\u2019s frustration with the blockages hindering the transfer of Russian aeronautical technologies to Iran, which were promised by Moscow in exchange for its support,\u201d the official added.\n <\/p>\n
\n The ceasefire between Israel and Iran has seen Tehran mostly withdraw from the international sphere to regroup, reorganize and rebuild what was destroyed during the conflict. And in addition to the well-publicized damage to Iran\u2019s nuclear facilities, Israel targeted several other Iranian facilities.\n <\/p>\n
\n David Albright, a former UN weapons inspector and head of the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) think tank, believes Alabuga\u2019s expansion may allow Moscow to provide some meaningful support and send some of the updated versions of the Shahed back to Iran.\n <\/p>\n
\n \u201cSome of [Iran\u2019s] drone production facilities were bombed and they fired a lot of [drones], so as a way to build back stock, they may do that,\u201d Albright said. \u201cAnd then then Iran could reverse engineer or receive the technology to make the better quality Shahed.\u201d\n <\/p>\n
\n \u201cI think it\u2019s very dangerous,\u201d he added.\n <\/p>\n
\n Other military equipment may be making its way to Tehran as well. Open-source flight tracking data shows a Gelix Airlines Ilyushin\u201376 military cargo plane flew from Moscow to Tehran on July 11.\n <\/p>\n
\n The IL-76 is a heavy transport plane frequently used by the Russian military to ferry troops and military equipment, and Gelix Airlines has been associated with the transport of military equipment in the past.\n <\/p>\n
\n The aircraft spent around three hours on the ground and then flew back to Moscow.\n <\/p>\n
\n CNN was unable to confirm what was on board but Iranian media reported it was the final components of a Russian S-400 air defense system.\n <\/p>\n
\n CNN asked the Russia Ministry of Defense for comment on the tension between the two countries but has not received a response. Similarly, CNN also reached out to the Iranian government, both in Tehran and via its embassy in the UK, but has yet to hear back.\n <\/p>\n
\n These latest developments highlight Dareini\u2019s core belief about relations between the two countries: while there may be tension, ultimately Iran will also reap the benefits of the partnership.\n <\/p>\n
\n \u201cIran has got, and very likely will get the things it needs for its own security,\u201d he explained. \u201cWhether it\u2019s military hardware, whether it\u2019s in terms of economic cooperation, technology and whatever it needs.\u201d\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The Middle East Russia National security War in Ukraine See all topics Facebook Tweet Email Link \u201cFinally, something…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":327760,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7655],"tags":[332],"class_list":{"0":"post-327759","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-russia","8":"tag-russia"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@uk\/114992944692895032","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/327759","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=327759"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/327759\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/327760"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=327759"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=327759"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=327759"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}