an\u00a0anti-dumping probe<\/a> launched in\u00a0September 2024 had\u00a0found\u00a0that Canada\u2019s\u00a0agricultural sector \u2013 particularly the canola industry \u2013 had benefitted from \u201csubstantial\u201d government subsidies and preferential policies.<\/p>\nChina has until September, when the investigation formally ends, to make a final decision on the duties, though it has the option of extending that deadline by six months. A final ruling could result in a different rate, or overturn Tuesday\u2019s decision.<\/p>\n
The decision marks a shift from the conciliatory tone struck in June when China Premier Li Qiang said there were no deep-seated conflicts of interest between the countries during\u00a0a phone call\u00a0with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney.<\/p>\n
\u201cThis move \u2026 will put additional pressure on Canada\u2019s government to sort through trade frictions with China,\u201d said Trivium China agriculture analyst Even Rogers Pay.<\/p>\n
Canada\u2019s trade, agriculture and the prime minister\u2019s office did not immediately respond to request for comment.\u00a0The Canadian embassy in Beijing did not respond to Reuters\u2019 request for comment.<\/p>\n
China had already imposed tariffs on canola oil and meal in March. Canada is now in a trade conflict with the world\u2019s two\u00a0largest economies,\u00a0as it also faces\u00a0tariffs\u00a0on some goods from the\u00a0United States.<\/p>\n
Separately, China also launched an anti-dumping investigation into\u00a0Canadian pea starch\u00a0and imposed provisional duties on imports of\u00a0halogenated butyl rubber, according to ministry statements.<\/p>\n
\u2018Extend the losses\u2019<\/p>\n
Replacing millions of tonnes of Canadian canola is likely to be difficult at short notice, say analysts.<\/p>\n
China primarily uses imported canola to make animal feed for its aquaculture sector. A separate duty on Canadian canola meal imports in March has already put these supplies at risk.<\/p>\n
The move provides an opportunity for Australia, which looks\u00a0set to regain\u00a0access to the Chinese market with a few test cargoes this year after a years-long freeze in the trade, Pay said.<\/p>\n
Australia, the second-largest canola exporter, has been shut out of the Chinese market since 2020 due mainly to Chinese rules to stop the spread of fungal plant disease called \u201cblackleg\u201d.<\/p>\n
However, even if Australian imports increase, \u201cfully replacing Canadian canola will be very difficult unless import demand drops sharply,\u201d said Donatas Jankauskas, an analyst with commodity data firm CM Navigator.<\/p>\n
Commodity funds have a substantial long position in ICE canola futures, traders said, which should add fuel to the selloff fire.<\/p>\n
\u201cThis will help accelerate their exit of that long and could really extend the losses,\u201d said Tryhuk.<\/p>\n
Another trader said there was already downward pressure coming into canola prices as Canada\u2019s crop is widely believed to be bigger than many previously forecast due to good weather.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe\u2019re just realising we\u2019ve got a better crop that\u2019s about to come off,\u201d said the trader. \u201cThis is a gut punch no one was expecting.\u201d<\/p>\n
Ventum Financial broker David Derwin said some traders do not know how to take the Chinese move yet, since it is not a final rule.<\/p>\n
\u201cIs it a negotiating tactic? Or does China put it in and that\u2019s that?\u201d Derwin asked.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The provisional rate, which was unexpected, will be set at 75.8 percent and will be effective from Thursday,…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":339901,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3090],"tags":[3971,11410,51,12633,943,1395,1700,3663,3058,12,285,1219,16,15,286],"class_list":{"0":"post-339900","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy","8":"tag-agriculture","9":"tag-asia-pacific","10":"tag-business","11":"tag-business-and-economy","12":"tag-canada","13":"tag-china","14":"tag-economy","15":"tag-financial-markets","16":"tag-international-trade","17":"tag-news","18":"tag-politics","19":"tag-trade-war","20":"tag-uk","21":"tag-united-kingdom","22":"tag-us-canada"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@uk\/115018853497576956","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/339900","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=339900"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/339900\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/339901"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=339900"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=339900"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=339900"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}