Trump has put larger levies on hold<\/a>\u00a0for now, a 10 percent baseline tariff on goods from 60 countries is still in place, which is concerning both investors and regular Americans.\u00a0<\/p>\nBut Kenwell warns investors not to panic about the death cross indicator popping up in the stock market.<\/p>\n
Looking back on historical data implies that it may not be as ominous as it sounds, he said.\u00a0<\/p>\n
‘Looking back over the seven other instances since 2009, we found that one month later, the S&P 500 was lower four times with a median decline of 0.9 percent. However, three months later, the index was\u00a0higher\u00a0six times with a median return of 5.9 percent.\u00a0<\/p>\n
‘When looking at six and 12 months later, the data points to a similarly improving situation where the S&P 500 was higher five and six times, respectively, with median gains of 10.1 percent and 15.5 percent, respectively.’<\/p>\n
![\"'As](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/97406011-14623471-_As_the_name_implies_a_death_cross_is_viewed_as_a_bearish_techni-a-141_17449555591.jpeg\")
<\/p>\n
‘As the name implies, a death cross is viewed as a bearish technical development and is often used as an indicator pointing to more downside ahead,’ said Bret Kenwell, US Investment Analyst at eToro<\/p>\n
![\"The](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/97405503-14623471-The_Nasdaq_Composite_saw_a_rare_death_cross_this_week-a-139_1744955558881.jpg\")
<\/p>\n
The Nasdaq Composite saw a rare death cross this week<\/p>\n
![\"The](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/97406079-14623471-The_death_cross_has_sparked_fears_the_US_economy_is_heading_towa-a-140_17449555591.jpeg\")
<\/p>\n
The death cross has sparked fears the US economy is heading toward a downturn<\/p>\n
In almost half of the instances (three out of seven), the S&P 500 had already made its low for that particular pullback by the time the death cross had occurred, Kenwell added.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Additionally, the largest decline that occurred after the death cross was less than 7 percent in five of the seven instances.<\/p>\n
But he does note that in two instances in 2018 and 2022 the index suffered a further drawdown of 11.1 percent and 14.5 percent, respectively.\u00a0<\/p>\n
And in 2022 the death cross occurred on March 14, but the S&P 500 did not bottom until almost seven months later on October 13.<\/p>\n
‘The most recent death cross statistics of the last 15 years are not necessarily bullish, but they hardly represent the frightening premonition that the name seems to imply,’ Kenwell said.\u00a0<\/p>\n
‘It’s clear that this lagging indicator did not, even somewhat consistently, show that stocks are bound to fall off a cliff.’<\/p>\n
That does not mean that markets cannot deteriorate from current levels, especially due to ongoing macroeconomic issues<\/a>, he said.<\/p>\nBut ‘a technical death cross for the S&P 500 is not the end-all, be-all knockout that it may seem to be.’<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"A rare ‘death cross’ appeared on the US stock market this week, sparking fears that further downturn is…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":34012,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3091],"tags":[51,92,2441,16,15,5601],"class_list":{"0":"post-34011","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-markets","8":"tag-business","9":"tag-dailymail","10":"tag-markets","11":"tag-uk","12":"tag-united-kingdom","13":"tag-yourmoney"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@uk\/114366958356216666","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34011","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=34011"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34011\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/34012"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=34011"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=34011"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=34011"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
![\"On](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/97405499-14623471-On_Monday_the_S_P_500_saw_a_death_cross_spooking_investors_after-a-138_17449555588.jpeg\")
<\/p>\n