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\n President Donald Trump has often bragged about his warm relationship with Russia\u2019s Vladimir Putin. But in the months leading up to the leaders\u2019 first meeting in six years, Trump began asking Europeans and White House aides what\u2019s changed about his counterpart.\n <\/p>\n
\n The line of questioning, described to CNN by three people familiar with the matter, speaks to Trump\u2019s growing frustration with Putin leading up to their summit in Alaska<\/a> Friday to discuss ending Russia\u2019s years-long invasion of Ukraine. Trump promised to quickly broker a peace deal even before he took office. Not only has Putin resisted ceasefire proposals, but Russia has escalated its attacks<\/a> on Ukraine this year.\n <\/p>\n \n While there have been some indications that Putin\u2019s short-term objectives in Ukraine may have shifted \u2013 underpinning an optimism within the White House that an agreement can be reached \u2013 the prevailing view of the US intelligence community is far more skeptical.\n <\/p>\n \n Putin maintains the same maximalist territorial goals as he has throughout the war and would likely use a ceasefire to refit his forces and possibly even make another run at Kyiv, multiple people familiar with recent US intelligence reporting on Russia said. And despite European calls for security guarantees for Ukraine, Putin still wants to ensure that Ukraine never joins NATO and that foreign peacekeepers don\u2019t enter the territory, the people said.\n <\/p>\n \n \u201cPutin thinks he is winning, so he has no reason to bend,\u201d said one person familiar with the recent US intelligence assessments, who, like others in this story, spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive matters. \u201cHis thinking is he might as well pocket the wins he has now, including the Ukrainian territory he has already taken by force, and then make another run to take more later,\u201d the person said.\n <\/p>\n \n Trump\u2019s desire to better understand Putin comes amid Ukrainian and European concern that the White House is being manipulated by the Kremlin, handing Putin a victory on the global stage by agreeing to meet with him on American soil and without Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky present.\n <\/p>\n \n \u201cRussia is offering to stop the war if they get everything they have always wanted, including their most maximalist demands,\u201d a European official told CNN. \u201cAnd that would not be a deal, it would be a submission.\u201d\n <\/p>\n \n Still, some Europeans also believe that Trump may have a unique ability to strike a deal, and they are encouraged by his shifting policy on the war in recent months.\n <\/p>\n \n Trump on Wednesday warned that Russia would face \u201cvery severe consequences\u201d if he determines that Putin is still not serious about ending the war with Ukraine. Trump didn\u2019t specify what those consequences might be, but he has previously threatened Moscow with stiffer economic sanctions or tariffs.\n <\/p>\n \n CNN reached out to the White House for comment.\n <\/p>\n Putin intelligence remains a \u2018hard target\u2019<\/p>\n \n Discerning Putin\u2019s intentions has been historically difficult. A former officer in the KGB, the Soviet Union\u2019s main security service, Putin keeps an extremely tight circle of confidants and it\u2019s unclear who he is listening to at any given time, according to a person familiar with recent US intelligence reports.\n <\/p>\n \n Decades spent trying to decode Putin have given the US tremendous institutional knowledge of the man. Still, US spy agencies have a notoriously poor view of his day-to-day decision-making, multiple officials told CNN. The Kremlin remains what intelligence officials call a \u201chard target\u201d \u2013 incredibly difficult to penetrate through traditional espionage.\n <\/p>\n \n But the US has at times successfully gained insight into Putin\u2019s plans, such as his decision to invade Ukraine in 2022. Other foreign intelligence services at the time cast doubt on American warnings that the Russian leader was about to start a war.\n <\/p>\n \n Trump has in the past expressed skepticism of the US intelligence community, particularly its assessments related to Russia, and it\u2019s unclear how much he\u2019ll rely on intelligence reports going into Friday\u2019s summit. One US official familiar with recent intelligence analysis questioned whether Trump\u2019s briefers were laying out the hard truths of the situation, including the widely-held view that Putin believes it\u2019s in his best interest to continue the war.\n <\/p>\n \n Trump remains confident he can personally and rapidly assess Putin, saying on Tuesday that he\u2019ll know after \u201cprobably the first two minutes\u201d of their sit-down if an agreement can be reached to end the war.\n <\/p>\n \n \u201cI got along very well with President Putin,\u201d Trump said of his first term, adding that Friday\u2019s summit would be a \u201cfeel-out\u201d meeting.\n <\/p>\n \n But while Trump has questioned if Putin has changed, others have noticed an evolution in Trump when it comes to his thinking about the Russian.\n <\/p>\n \n \u201cEuropean allies say the one who changed is Trump, both in his comfort level in his job and in his understanding of who Putin is,\u201d said one US official, adding that Trump has continued altering his thinking on Russia since he took office earlier this year.\n <\/p>\n \n \u201cHis approach in early January was na\u00efve \u2026 Now Europeans say he finally gets it that Putin is a murderous leader,\u201d the US official said.\n <\/p>\n \n Trump\u2019s rising anger with Putin began earlier this summer, coming as Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, Trump\u2019s primary interlocutor with Russia, was also expressing frustration with the Kremlin, said a person familiar with the matter. Witkoff privately commented that the Russians were \u201ctapping us along,\u201d the person said.\n <\/p>\n \n Trump also began using frequent expletives when talking about Putin in private meetings, said people in those meetings. It was clear that Trump\u2019s perspective was changing, they said.\n <\/p>\n \n \u201cHis anger was palpable,\u201d said one person privy to a private meeting between Trump and a European leader.\n <\/p>\n \n There are some signals that Putin\u2019s short-term goals may have shifted with an openness to pocketing territorial gains in Ukraine and also shoring up economic deals for Russia, said a source familiar with the intelligence. But it is unlikely that Putin would take that position early-on in any negotiation.\n <\/p>\n \n In the final weeks of the Biden administration, US intelligence officials cautioned now-senior advisers to Trump that controlling Ukraine remained Putin\u2019s top priority next to his own regime\u2019s survival, according to a person familiar with the conversations. The officials also warned that the Russian president was eager to exploit any perceived rush to negotiations, the person added.\n <\/p>\n \n Putin had bet all his chips on Ukraine and showed no sign of relenting, no matter the costs, the intelligence officials told Trump\u2019s advisors, according to the person familiar with the discussions.\n <\/p>\n \n Though analysts have said that Putin\u2019s imperial ambitions regarding Ukraine were long-established, Trump\u2019s aides have told the president that the coronavirus pandemic is at least partly responsible for any change in Putin since he last met Trump in 2019, according to three people familiar with the matter.\n <\/p>\n \n The discussion about Putin\u2019s possible shift came as Trump was perplexed about why he had been unable to get Putin to agree to end the Ukraine war.\n <\/p>\n \n \u201cMany around Trump are now trying to give him the idea that Putin changed so he has a reason to say that he wasn\u2019t wrong in his initial impression coming into office that Putin is a good guy,\u201d said a person familiar with the matter.\n <\/p>\n Putin\u2019s pandemic isolation<\/p>\n \n Leading up to the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, some US intelligence officials believed that Putin was becoming more paranoid \u2013 perhaps due to protracted isolation<\/a> during the pandemic.\n <\/p>\n \n He rarely left his palatial residence outside Moscow during the pandemic. His public appearances were largely limited to televised video conference meetings with Russian cabinet officials. Anyone Putin met with in person had to first quarantine for two weeks, including World War II veterans who shared an outdoor stage with Putin on Red Square during a military parade.\n <\/p>\n \n The extreme precautions to protect the leader\u2019s health \u2013 Putin was 68 during the pandemic\u2019s first year \u2013 ultimately narrowed his social circle. Russian technocrats who would\u2019ve been against war had less contact with Putin than hardliners, Russian analysts have said.\n <\/p>\n![\"A](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/c-2025-07-31t043316z-85855382-rc2gxfa9dlaj-rtrmadp-3-ukraine-crisis-attack-kyiv.jpg\")
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