JPMorgan warns tariffs could shave GDP, lift inflation to post-war highs in scale<\/p>\n
JP Morgan says US tariffs are likely to deliver a meaningful hit to both economic growth and inflation, as Wall Street economists brace for the bulk of the impact to filter through over coming months.<\/p>\n
\u201cTariffs could subtract 1% from GDP and add 1\u20131.5% to inflation, some of which has already occurred,\u201d said Michael Feroli, chief US economist at JPMorgan. He cautioned that this year\u2019s tariff increases are \u201cwell larger than anything in the post-war US experience,\u201d leaving considerable uncertainty over how much of the higher costs will be passed on to consumers.<\/p>\n
JPMorgan expects the GDP impact to come mainly via weaker consumption, which accounts for about two-thirds of US output, and estimates the drag will be \u201ca bit under 1%\u201d in the second half of the year. The bank\u2019s warning comes as other forecasters note that pre-tariff inventories are now running down, effective tariff rates have climbed to around 18% from 3% at the start of the year, and companies are showing less willingness to absorb higher costs.<\/p>\n
While inflation is not expected to surge out of control, most economists see monthly core price gains in the 0.3%\u20130.5% range, enough to push the Fed\u2019s preferred gauge into the low- to mid-3% area. <\/p>\n
JPMorgan\u2019s call comes alongside broader market worries over the Aug. 29 expiry of de minimis tariff exceptions for imports under $800, a change that could push up prices for retail goods in particular.<\/p>\n
— This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"JPMorgan warns tariffs could shave GDP, lift inflation to post-war highs in scale JP Morgan says US tariffs…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":6319,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3090],"tags":[51,1700,16,15],"class_list":{"0":"post-342636","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy","8":"tag-business","9":"tag-economy","10":"tag-uk","11":"tag-united-kingdom"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@uk\/115024574838464901","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/342636","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=342636"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/342636\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/6319"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=342636"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=342636"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=342636"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}