According to a well-placed source in the Scottish salmon industry, Chile, Canada and Norway are looking to “redirect more product into lower-tariff export markets like the EU to maintain sales”.<\/p>\n
“This shift is already having an impact,” they say. “Market studies have highlighted how other producing countries are treating Europe and parts of Asia as a ‘safe haven’ for diverted supply, which is adding to volumes in the European market.”<\/p>\n
An industry analyst at Norwegian seafood data firm Kontali, Philip Scrase, recently published a note about salmon prospects, with production set to rise.<\/p>\n
In the US, he observed the effect of tariffs could be complex.<\/p>\n
He said: “The move may hurt US seafood processors and consumers more than it helps domestic producers, particularly in the retail sector, where price sensitivity is high, and substitutes are limited.”<\/p>\n
Salmon producers’ loss of US markets could be the European consumers’ gain, Mr Scrase says, as an increased supply from Chile pushes down prices.<\/p>\n
Recent reporting from the seafood trade media pointed to sharply reduced prices for salmon from the dominant producer, Norway, at the same time as the sector expected a big 2025 harvest due to improved fish survival rates.<\/p>\n
One consequence is a rush to freeze as much salmon as possible. Another is that some are reported as having to sell at less than it cost to produce.<\/p>\n
That is explicitly why Salmon Scotland, the trade body, is stepping up its efforts to promote the third of Scottish salmon exports to France that qualify for the prestigious Label Rouge, a French marketing kitemark to signify food quality.<\/p>\n