{"id":357146,"date":"2025-08-19T15:42:10","date_gmt":"2025-08-19T15:42:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/357146\/"},"modified":"2025-08-19T15:42:10","modified_gmt":"2025-08-19T15:42:10","slug":"what-security-guarantees-might-ukraine-get-in-return-for-a-peace-deal-ukraine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/357146\/","title":{"rendered":"What security guarantees might Ukraine get in return for a peace deal? | Ukraine"},"content":{"rendered":"

European leaders have been holding a virtual conference call to discuss what security guarantees they could give to Ukraine in the event of a peace deal with Russia. The discussion follows Monday\u2019s unprecedented get-together in the White House hosted by Donald Trump. The US president met Volodymyr Zelenskyy<\/a> and held talks with Britain\u2019s Keir Starmer, as well as the leaders of Germany, France, Italy, Finland, the European Union and Nato. The main topic was how to end the war in Ukraine, the continent\u2019s biggest since 1945, and how Europe might stop Russia from attacking again.<\/p>\n

What security guarantees might Ukraine get?<\/p>\n

Zelenskyy has said that the details will be worked out and \u201cformalised on paper\u201d within a week to 10 days. As many as 30 countries \u2013 called the \u201ccoalition of the willing\u201d \u2013 are likely to be involved, with some help from the US, although what that might mean is unclear. Speaking after his meeting on Monday with Donald Trump and European leaders in the White House, Zelenskyy said their support could take many forms.<\/p>\n

Recent Russian advances<\/a><\/p>\n

One of those could be prysutnist (the Ukrainian word for presence), meaning they would provide troops. And it might include intelligence, as well as providing security in the air and on the Black Sea, or simply funds, he said.<\/p>\n

The key question is, which European governments are willing to take part in a peacekeeping mission inside Ukraine? The UK and France have indicated they are ready to send soldiers as part of a \u201creassurance force\u201d. France\u2019s president, Emmanuel Macron, confirmed: \u201cWe have to help Ukraine on the ground.\u201d Germany is more sceptical. Many details have yet to be worked out. Would western troops be stationed along a ceasefire line or provide a more limited training role in big cities such as Kyiv and Lviv? And what rules of engagement would they have if they came under Russian fire?<\/p>\n

How might the US contribute?<\/p>\n

Trump has promised to coordinate a Europe-led peacekeeping operation in Ukraine. \u201cWhen it comes to security, there\u2019s going to be a lot of help,\u201d he said on Monday, sitting next to Zelenskyy in the Oval Office. The US president made clear European countries would be expected to carry most of the burden. \u201cThey are a first line of defence because they\u2019re there. But we\u2019ll help them out,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Ukraine wants to buy $90bn worth of US weapons and says they could form part of the security guarantee. Overall, however, Trump has been vague about how much the US would contribute. He has ruled out Ukraine\u2019s membership of Nato, which Kyiv believes would be the best deterrent against a future Russian onslaught. There seems no prospect the US would send its own troops to take part in a peace-keeping mission. One more realistic option would be for the Pentagon to provide logistical support to a proposed \u201csky shield\u201d. The plan envisages an air protection zone in the west and the centre of Ukraine, including over the capital Kyiv, enforced by European fighter jets.<\/p>\n

Graphic Ukraine<\/a>What does Russia say?<\/p>\n

According to Trump, Vladimir Putin agreed during their summit in Alaska that Ukraine required security guarantees. Trump\u2019s special envoy Steve Witkoff has said that these would be outside the auspices of Nato, but would be the equivalent of article 5, Nato\u2019s self-defence pact in which an attack on one is considered an attack on all. Russia\u2019s interpretation of guarantees, however, seems different from Witkoff\u2019s version. The Kremlin says it is categorically opposed to western troops in Ukraine. It is unlikely to accept a peacekeeping force as part of any deal.<\/p>\n

Putin\u2019s war goals, meanwhile, are unchanged and framed in terms of Russia\u2019s own existential security needs. He is demanding the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk provinces, including territory Russia has been unable since 2014 to capture. Putin also wants Ukraine\u2019s \u201cdemilitarisation and denazification\u201d \u2013 meaning severe limits on the size of Kyiv\u2019s army, as well as Zelenskyy\u2019s removal. The intense diplomacy of the past few days may seem like progress. But Russia\u2019s basic position hasn\u2019t changed. Putin has shown no sign he respects Ukraine\u2019s sovereignty or that he wants to stop the war. While Russia\u2019s bombing continues discussion of security guarantees seems moot.<\/p>\n

What does history tell us?<\/p>\n

We have been here before. In 1994 Kyiv agreed to give up its nuclear weapons in exchange for international security assurances. Under the terms of the Budapest memorandum the US, Russia, the UK, China and France said they would ensure Ukraine\u2019s \u201cterritorial integrity\u201d and \u201cpolitical independence\u201d. And to \u201crefrain from the use and threat of force\u201d.<\/p>\n

At the time Ukrainian politicians thought giving up the country\u2019s nuclear arsenal left it open to Russian attack. The Clinton administration was insistent. In May 1997 Russia\u2019s president Boris Yeltsin signed a friendship treaty with his Ukrainian counterpart, Leonid Kuchma. Russia recognised Ukraine\u2019s post-Soviet borders. As part of the deal, Kyiv gave Moscow most of its navy, and leased the Crimean port of Sevastopol to the Russians for 20 years.<\/p>\n

Neither agreement stopped Russian aggression. In 2014 the Kremlin used its troops stationed in Crimea to seize and annex the peninsula. Putin now says the whole of Ukraine is \u201chistorical Russia\u201d. Ukraine\u2019s experience of betrayal \u2013 with late 20th-century pledges proving to be worthless \u2013 means it will want better guarantees this time.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"European leaders have been holding a virtual conference call to discuss what security guarantees they could give to…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":357147,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7655],"tags":[332],"class_list":{"0":"post-357146","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-russia","8":"tag-russia"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@uk\/115056197234004976","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/357146","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=357146"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/357146\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/357147"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=357146"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=357146"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=357146"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}