France, like other European countries, is adapting its defence and security strategy in response to accelerating geopolitical developments. Its updated National Strategic Review (Revue Nationale Strat\u00e9gique, RNS) describes the threats facing France, sets ambitions, and proposes resources, in particular an increase in defence spending.<\/p>\n
Threats<\/p>\n
The RNS<\/a>, published on 14 July, identifies Russia as the main threat for the coming years, posing by 2030 a \u201crisk of open warfare against the heart of Europe.\u201d It argues that Russia\u2019s top priority of strengthening its armed forces confirms its confrontational approach towards France and its European partners and recognises its destabilising (hybrid) actions as \u201cincreasingly uninhibited.\u201d These points were underlined by Chief of Defence General Burkhard at a press conference<\/a> when he described the Russian threat as the \u201cmost significant, closest and most enduring.\u201d Russia has never before been so clearly identified as a threat.<\/p>\n While France remains \u201cdeeply committed\u201d to its partnership with the US, the review also highlights the present \u201cuncertainty\u201d about the transatlantic relationship. It notes that while Europe has had a \u201cstrategic awakening,\u201d it still risks \u201cstrategic isolation\u201d and must continue to rearm.<\/p>\n The document contains 104 references to the word \u201cnuclear\u201d and 43 to \u201cdeterrence,\u201d with nuclear capability stressed as having \u201ca central role in the assertion of power.\u201d French nuclear doctrine is also detailed in an unprecedented way. The European dimension of nuclear deterrence is mentioned, including references to the ongoing strategic dialogue<\/a> with European allies: President Macron has announced<\/a> that he will reveal the changes this will entail by the end of the year.<\/p>\n Finally, transnational threats such as terrorism remain prominent\u2014indeed, this, and the environmental dimension, which the CHOD has described as a \u201ccatalyst for chaos,\u201d are described in greater detail than they were in RNS 2022<\/a>. Hybrid threats, as well as trade and technology wars, also feature prominently in the description of a deteriorating strategic environment.<\/p>\n Ambitions<\/p>\n Macron has set out<\/a> an almost unabashed ambition for power for France and Europe: \u201cto be free in this world, you have to be feared, and to be feared, you have to be powerful.\u201d Among the areas to be developed to realise this ambition is the strengthening of the defence industry, both in terms of production and innovation. Faced with the risk of falling behind, the RNS proposes that Europeans must collectively embark on a \u201ctechnological revolution\u201d in AI, electronic warfare, space and quantum technology, involving a strengthening of the European pillar of NATO in conjunction with the EU.<\/p>\n Other objectives are linked to lessons learned from Russia\u2019s war in Ukraine. Those include the need for mass in capabilities (balance between \u201cvery high-tech decision-making weapons, which are essential for victory, and wear-and-tear and saturation capabilities,\u201d some of which are derived from dual use technology like drones) and manpower\u2014particularly in the military reserve\u2014and for the resilience of society and the economy (which must \u201cprepare for war\u201d). Civil society will thus need to be better informed about Russia\u2019s hybrid destabilisation efforts. Both the government<\/a> and Viginum<\/a> (a state agency fighting foreign information meddling) have become more vocal about hostile actions orchestrated by Russia in the information sphere.<\/p>\n Means<\/p>\n The RNS notes that societal resilience\u2014through strengthening national cohesion and protecting crisis management structures and vital infrastructure\u2014requires citizens, government services, and private companies to be better prepared and more engaged. The President has cited efforts already made to expand the army reserve, but also stressed the need to work with youth. The RNS proposes a \u201crenewed voluntary military service\u201d: Macron has indicated that he will decide by the end of the year how to involve young people in a new framework for service.<\/p>\n Partnerships and alliances in Europe and beyond are priorities for France. The renewed and strengthened partnership with the UK encompasses a joint nuclear deterrent<\/a> dimension, while the RNS seeks to review and strengthen partnerships in the Indo-Pacific and Africa. Macron has recently toured the Indo-Pacific, giving the opening speech at the Shangri-La Dialogue, while Indonesia was the guest of honour at France\u2019s 14 July parade.<\/p>\n The RNS also recommends an increase in defence spending to strengthen defence capabilities at the national and European levels. The President has announced an increase of \u20ac6.5 billion over what was planned in the military programming law, to reach \u20ac64 billion three years ahead of schedule, i.e., by 2027 (the last year of his term in office). France is, however, going through a difficult period with its public finances. The Prime Minister has presented a series of austerity measures<\/a> ahead of the budget discussions in Parliament, although defence (and the cost of debt) is so far not affected by a spending freeze.<\/p>\n Uncertainties<\/p>\n France sees that trends it noted in 2017 and 2022 have accelerated and intensified, and the risks of it becoming involved in a high-intensity conflict or of hybrid destabilisation on its territory have increased. The updated RNS thus sets out a commitment to increase defence spending and to mobilise the entire population, with a focus on young people and reservists under the motto \u201cto be aware and ready.\u201d Both aspects are in line with initiatives taken by other European countries (the UK Strategic Review) and by the EU. The end of the year should see presidential announcements about mobilising young people and strengthening nuclear deterrence, but there will be twists and turns as the military programming law is revised and Parliament votes on the global budget. It is not impossible that Parliament will censure the government\u2019s budget proposal and, as it did at the end of 2024, freeze military appropriations.<\/p>\n Views expressed in ICDS publications are those of the author(s).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"France, like other European countries, is adapting its defence and security strategy in response to accelerating geopolitical developments.…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":364070,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5309],"tags":[2000,299,36],"class_list":{"0":"post-364069","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-france","8":"tag-eu","9":"tag-europe","10":"tag-france"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@uk\/115071245682593840","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/364069","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=364069"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/364069\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/364070"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=364069"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=364069"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=364069"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}