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The writer is a former US secretary of state<\/p>\n
The extraordinary meetings that President Donald Trump has held in the past week with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and key European leaders demonstrates his deep commitment to achieving a lasting peace after three and a half years of bloodshed, something his predecessor never sought. The president is marshaling American strength to build the coalition necessary to secure\u00a0Ukraine\u2019s future \u2014 exactly the kind of leverage Putin fears. \u00a0<\/p>\n
As someone who sat across the table from Putin as secretary of state, I know he only responds to strength. Trump understands this reality. His success in securing Nato allies\u2019 commitment to 5 per cent defence spending proves his approach delivers results where diplomatic niceties fail. <\/p>\n
This clear-eyed realism will be crucial to ensuring that any deal to end Russia\u2019s war on\u00a0Ukraine\u00a0secures Kyiv\u2019s sovereignty and deters Moscow from future acts of aggression.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Putin has indicated that he wants Zelenskyy to surrender the eastern Donetsk\u00a0and Luhansk provinces\u00a0as a condition for ending the war. This would be a strategic catastrophe for\u00a0Ukraine\u00a0and a political non-starter for its government. <\/p>\n
Handing control of\u00a0Ukraine\u2019s industrial heartland and key defensive belt to Russia \u2014 which thousands of Ukrainians have fought and died to defend \u2014 would stymie\u00a0the country\u2019s reconstruction and set the stage for Russia to complete its conquest. <\/p>\n
More fundamentally, rewarding Putin\u2019s aggression with territorial gains would signal to every dictator worldwide that violence pays.\u00a0Russia\u2019s neighbours in the Baltics and other former Soviet states such as Moldova would then have serious cause to fear that they could be next on Putin\u2019s list.<\/p>\n
Let me be clear: securing peace will probably require difficult compromises. With the war at a stalemate and the Ukrainian people exhausted by years of bloodshed and destruction, Zelenskyy faces a choice between continued suffering and imperfect solutions.\u00a0<\/p>\n
But there is a red line:\u00a0Ukraine\u00a0should never be compelled to recognise\u00a0Russia\u2019s claims to territories Moscow has seized and occupied illegally. Such a recognition would legitimise Russia\u2019s position and hand it an enormous military and propaganda victory. And if America appears to endorse Russia\u2019s land grab \u2014 let alone actually recognising any territorial claims \u2014 we might as well send Xi Jinping an engraved invitation for China to seize Taiwan.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Any peace deal that does not include robust security guarantees for\u00a0Ukraine\u00a0is not worth the paper it\u2019s printed on.\u00a0Ukraine\u00a0has seen this movie before: in 1994, the west promised to protect\u00a0Ukraine\u2019s sovereignty in exchange for surrendering the Soviet nuclear weapons then based on Ukrainian territory. <\/p>\n
But fine words do not amount to action, as Putin demonstrated when he first invaded\u00a0Ukraine\u00a0in 2014 and then again in 2022. Indeed, Putin has given zero indication that he is prepared to concede anything significant in the name of peace, and has demonstrated his contempt for this diplomatic process by continuing strikes on Ukrainian civilians in recent days.\u00a0<\/p>\n
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