{"id":373471,"date":"2025-08-25T23:03:18","date_gmt":"2025-08-25T23:03:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/373471\/"},"modified":"2025-08-25T23:03:18","modified_gmt":"2025-08-25T23:03:18","slug":"ethical-diamonds-melbourne-cup-absence-shows-drawbacks-of-micro-managing-risk-melbourne-cup","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/373471\/","title":{"rendered":"Ethical Diamond\u2019s Melbourne Cup absence shows drawbacks of micro-managing risk | Melbourne Cup"},"content":{"rendered":"

Ethical Diamond appeared to have all of the attributes you would want to see in a potential Melbourne Cup winner as he recorded a decisive success in the Ebor Handicap<\/a> at York on Saturday. He travelled sweetly, had the tactical speed to pick his way through the field in the straight and then a sharp turn of foot at the business end to put the race to bed a furlong out. In winning, he also picked up a \u201cGolden Ticket\u201d for \u201cthe race that stops the nation\u201d in early November, one of just two such guaranteed entries on offer in the northern hemisphere.<\/p>\n

So what\u2019s not to like? The answer, it soon transpired, is a small piece of metal inserted into one of Ethical Diamond\u2019s legs. \u201cHe had a little fracture last year and we put a screw in,\u201d Willie Mullins, the gelding\u2019s trainer, said, \u201cand they\u2019re not allowed in Melbourne. It\u2019s fair and their rules are there for a reason. At least we know we can\u2019t go there before we leave.\u201d<\/p>\n

Winning a Melbourne Cup<\/a> is surely the most significant ambition left on Mullins\u2019s to-do list now that he has won (and retained) the British trainers\u2019 title over jumps, so the realisation that Ethical Diamond\u2019s \u201cGolden Ticket\u201d is in effect worthless will have come as a blow.<\/p>\n

As he pointed out, though, he has at least been spared the expense and frustration endured by Aidan O\u2019Brien in November 2024 when Jan Brueghel, the St Leger winner<\/a> and Melbourne Cup favourite, was scratched by the Australian vets a few days before the race.<\/p>\n

Quick GuideGreg Wood’s Tuesday tipsShow<\/p>\n

Ripon <\/b>2.05 Triple Force 2.35 Schrodinger\u2019s Cat 3.05 Hanney Girl 3.35 Kats Bob (nap) 4.05 Thats My Boy Luke 4.35 Queensland Boy<\/p>\n

Musselburgh <\/b>2.20 Tardaff 2.50 Shes Got The Blues 3.20 Beaumadier 3.50 Temper Trap 4.20 Gesundheit 4.50 Naughty Niall<\/p>\n

Lingfield <\/b>4.10 Senor Cortez (nb) 4.40 Boss Lady 5.10 Galileo Charm 5.40 Pending Appeal 6.10 Harryella 6.40 Amber Honey 7.10 Saytarr 7.40 Phoenix Moon<\/p>\n

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O\u2019Brien, who was in California for the Breeders\u2019 Cup, was infuriated by the decision, as the result of what was described as a \u201cshadow\u201d on a scan. This, in the opinion of the local vets, meant that Jan Brueghel \u201cwas currently at heightened risk\u201d of injury.<\/p>\n

\u201cI would imagine that with any developing three-year-old at this time of the year, you would get shadows, and the same with human beings,\u201d O\u2019Brien said at the time. \u201cIt\u2019s probably gone a little bit ridiculous but that\u2019s the way it is.<\/p>\n

\u201cOne time when horses were trotted it was always the vet\u2019s opinion whether they were sound or lame but now there\u2019s an app on the phone and a phone video, and the phone tells the vet whether the horse is sound. There comes a time when it gets a little bit ridiculous.\u201d<\/p>\n

Aidan O\u2019Brien\u2019s Derby winner, Anthony Van Dyck, had to be put down at the Melbourne Cup in 2020. Photograph: Brett Holburt\/RACING PHOTOS\/AFP\/Getty Images<\/p>\n

Jan Brueghel was due to be O\u2019Brien\u2019s first Melbourne Cup runner since the introduction of heightened veterinary protocols for overseas competitors in 2021, a year after the same trainer\u2019s Anthony Van Dyck, the Derby winner at Epsom in 2019, was put down after sustaining a broken fetlock during the Cup<\/a>. He was the sixth overseas runner to suffer a fatal injury in the race since 2013.<\/p>\n

There was immense pressure on the Australian racing authorities<\/a> to act, and to be seen to act, after such a sustained run of fatal injuries, and they can point to four subsequent injury-free runnings of the Melbourne Cup as a sign that the policy is proving to be effective.<\/p>\n

The fans have also been returning to the country\u2019s most famous race over the last two years, from a low point of 73,816 in 2022 to 84,492 a year later and then 91,168 in 2024. The Australian sporting public, it seems, is slowly learning to love its biggest race again.<\/p>\n

Four renewals of a single Flat race, though, is hardly conclusive evidence that the fatal injuries between 2013 and 2020 were down to anything more than a run of bad luck. And though the Australian authorities, perhaps, may not be too concerned, this year\u2019s Melbourne Cup will be a poorer race without Ethical Diamond cashing his Golden Ticket.<\/p>\n

The treatment of Jan Brueghel, meanwhile, whose abortive trip cost about \u00a3120,000, is also a potential disincentive for international runners. Over time, it may be, as the League of Gentlemen might put it, a more local race for local people.<\/p>\n

There is a potential lesson here for British racing, which has faced similar pressures to \u201cdo something\u201d several times in the fairly recent past after abnormal clusters of fatal injuries at Cheltenham or Aintree in the spring.<\/p>\n

Jan Brueghel (left) won the St Leger last year but was then ruled out of the Melbourne Cup by vets after travelling all the way to Australia. Photograph: Mike Egerton\/PA<\/p>\n

Saturday marked the start of the fifth National Racehorse Week, which actually runs for nine days until 31 August giving members of the public a chance to go behind the scenes at racing yards, stud farms and retraining centres around the country.<\/p>\n

The initiative is part of a broad strategy around welfare issues, which has included the founding of the independently chaired Horse Welfare Board and the development of data-based risk models in partnership with the Royal Veterinary College.<\/p>\n

It is proactive, not reactive, and focused on the overall picture, which is the only sensible approach given that racing will always carry an element of risk and also how easy it is to be fooled by randomness when what are essentially very unlikely events suddenly occur in clusters.<\/p>\n

The fact that a likely favourite can in effect be ruled out of Australia\u2019s biggest race on vets\u2019 advice because different vets have successfully treated an injury in the past should be a reminder of the possible drawbacks of trying to micro-manage risk, when the risk itself \u2013 31 deaths from 33,189 runners on the Flat in Britain in 2024 \u2013 is already extremely low.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Ethical Diamond appeared to have all of the attributes you would want to see in a potential Melbourne…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":373472,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4107],"tags":[1071,79,16,15],"class_list":{"0":"post-373471","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-racing","8":"tag-racing","9":"tag-sports","10":"tag-uk","11":"tag-united-kingdom"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@uk\/115091905171807590","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/373471","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=373471"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/373471\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/373472"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=373471"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=373471"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=373471"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}