{"id":380680,"date":"2025-08-28T17:02:22","date_gmt":"2025-08-28T17:02:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/380680\/"},"modified":"2025-08-28T17:02:22","modified_gmt":"2025-08-28T17:02:22","slug":"emmanuel-macron-short-of-options-as-france-faces-political-crisis-largely-of-his-making-the-irish-times","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/380680\/","title":{"rendered":"Emmanuel Macron short of options as France faces political crisis largely of his making \u2013 The Irish Times"},"content":{"rendered":"

Emmanuel Macron<\/a> is grappling with narrowing options as his fourth prime minister in two years hangs on by a thread and markets are alarmed by France<\/a>\u2019s political and fiscal crisis.<\/p>\n

People close to the French president say he is already preparing for the likelihood that the premier, Fran\u00e7ois Bayrou, will lose a confidence vote next month. Bayrou earlier this week took politicians and markets by surprise by calling for the vote, in an attempt to bolster parliamentary backing for his strategy on how to rein in the country\u2019s ballooning deficit.<\/p>\n

Although Macron is still publicly urging lawmakers to support Bayrou in the September 8th vote, he is also consulting allies over next steps, including options for a new prime minister able to get a 2026 budget adopted without further political turmoil.<\/p>\n

None of Macron\u2019s options are particularly appealing if the opposition follows through on their promise to topple Bayrou. He can name another prime minister from his own camp or a right-wing politician to try to maintain the same strategy. Or he can switch tack to name a moderate leftist, such as a Socialist, knowing that they will undo some of his reforms.<\/p>\n

In no scenario would any of these governments enjoy a parliamentary majority, so Macron could ultimately try to break the deadlock by calling again for new elections.<\/p>\n

The president, whose second and last term ends in mid-2027, has sought to shift the blame on to the opposition \u2013 particularly the key swing blocs of Marine Le Pen\u2019s far right and the Socialists.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt is up to the political parties to rise to the occasion by finding ways of compromise and stability, as is the practice throughout Europe,\u201d Macron told Journal du Dimanche newspaper on Tuesday. \u201cIf they were to choose disorder, they would bear a heavy responsibility in the current delicate geopolitical moment.\u201d<\/p>\n

But the crisis is largely one of Macron\u2019s own doing.<\/p>\n

Since he called and lost parliamentary elections last year, his centre and right-wing alliance has been left without a majority in the assembly. His first pick for premier, the conservative politician and former EU Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier, was in office for just three months before being toppled over his unpopular 2025 budget.<\/p>\n

\"FrenchFrench Prime Minister Michel Barnier leaves the podium after delivering a speech as part of the French National Assembly debate on parts of France’s 2025 budget bill, in Paris, France, 02 December 2024. Prime Minister Barnier activated Article 49.3 of the Constitution to pass his social security budget bill without a vote, as a majority of members of Parliament rejected his project on 02 December 2024. <\/p>\n

Bayrou managed to get a slightly watered-down budget adopted in February because he convinced the Socialists to abstain, but they have already said they will not repeat the favour on his new proposals for \u20ac44 billion of spending cuts and tax rises in the 2026 budget.<\/p>\n

Le Pen and far-left leader Jean-Luc M\u00e9lenchon have even called on Macron to resign to pave the way for an early presidential vote, but he has repeatedly vowed he would never do so.<\/p>\n

An Elabe opinion poll published on Tuesday showed 67 per cent wanted Macron to resign, while 72 per cent of respondents did not want Bayrou to stay on.<\/p>\n

Erwan Balanant, an MP from Bayrou\u2019s centrist Modem party, said voting out the prime minister would thrust France deeper into crisis. \u201cIf the government falls on September 8th, we\u2019ll find ourselves exactly in the same situation as we were in last July,\u201d he said in an interview. \u201cThe question now is: who is ready to take responsibility today to find solutions?\u201d<\/p>\n

Opposition parties that hold at least 330 seats out of the 577 have said they will not back Bayrou, so his premiership will end unless he secures an unlikely U-turn from them. Bayrou on Wednesday offered to meet with party chiefs next week to negotiate the deficit-cutting plan.<\/p>\n

The looming election battle to succeed Macron in 2027 complicates the choice of a new prime minister as politicians are increasingly unwilling to be seen as helping an unpopular president and enabling spending cuts.<\/p>\n

If Macron wants to attempt continuity he could pick a new prime minister from his own centrist party, or an allied party such as former prime minister Edouard Philippe\u2019s Horizons or the conservative Les R\u00e9publicains party (LR), which all are represented in the current government.<\/p>\n

Macron has previously wanted to tap S\u00e9bastien Lecornu, a long-time ally who was a former member of LR and is now serving as defence minister, but the opposition may see that as a provocation given Lecornu\u2019s closeness to Macron.<\/p>\n

Macron can also try a new configuration that he has taken great pains to avoid since last summer\u2019s snap election \u2013 naming a moderate left-wing figure as prime minister.<\/p>\n

A left-wing electoral alliance came in first in last year\u2019s legislative election, giving them a claim to the premiership, but Macron instead chose to ally with the smaller right-wing LR party, largely because he was loath to see his pro-business economic agenda picked apart.<\/p>\n

Philippe Brun, a senior Socialist MP, told the Financial Times it was time for the left to be given a shot. \u201cThe only government that has a chance of surviving now is one we are running, but it would require securing an agreement with the centre not to topple us,\u201d he said. \u201cMacron cannot name someone from his own camp.\u201d<\/p>\n

Socialist party leader Olivier Faure last year threw his hat into the ring for premier and is said to be still eager for the job. Another option would be Bernard Cazeneuve, a former Socialist politician who previously served as prime minister under president Fran\u00e7ois Hollande.<\/p>\n

Geoffroy Didier, senior member of the conservative LR, said that the party was unlikely to join a government led by a left-wing prime minister, but that they could be convinced not to censor them.<\/p>\n

\u201cThat would be the fair middle ground, if [Macron] decided to turn to\u201d the left, he said, adding that it was \u201cidealistic\u201d to expect another LR prime minister after Barnier.<\/p>\n

Political volatility has already hampered efforts to begin chipping away at a national deficit that reached 5.8 per cent of GDP last year \u2013 far above EU limits of 3 per cent of GDP. Debt-servicing costs are forecast to hit \u20ac66 billion this year to become the government\u2019s biggest area of spending, ahead of education and defence.<\/p>\n

The risk for Macron is that instability drags on so long that \u2013 for the second year in a row \u2013 the budget for next year cannot be passed by late December. Investors have already pushed up the interest rates they demand to buy French government bonds, and both the bond and equity markets wavered this week after Bayrou\u2019s announcement.<\/p>\n

Some see another snap legislative vote as inevitable. \u201cAs long as there is no dissolving of parliament, we will have governments unable to pass laws, even ones as crucial as a budget,\u201d said Didier.<\/p>\n

An inveterate risk taker, Macron may agree that is the only way out of the impasse. \u201cIt is not his wish, because the Assembly is legitimate and reflects the country in both its diversity and its divisions,\u201d said a person in his entourage. \u201cBut he has always said that he would not rule out using the power granted to him in the constitution.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u2013 Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2025<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Emmanuel Macron is grappling with narrowing options as his fourth prime minister in two years hangs on by…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":380681,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5309],"tags":[34,2000,299,36,44],"class_list":{"0":"post-380680","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-france","8":"tag-emmanuel-macron","9":"tag-eu","10":"tag-europe","11":"tag-france","12":"tag-marine-le-pen"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@uk\/115107472543078899","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/380680","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=380680"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/380680\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/380681"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=380680"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=380680"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=380680"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}