{"id":382195,"date":"2025-08-29T10:28:13","date_gmt":"2025-08-29T10:28:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/382195\/"},"modified":"2025-08-29T10:28:13","modified_gmt":"2025-08-29T10:28:13","slug":"trumps-venezuela-gunboat-diplomacy-sabre-rattling-or-prelude-to-invasion-venezuela","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/382195\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump\u2019s Venezuela gunboat diplomacy: sabre-rattling or prelude to invasion? | Venezuela"},"content":{"rendered":"

As US warships carrying cruise missiles and marines powered towards Venezuela<\/a>\u2019s coastline this week, supporters of the South American country\u2019s president, Nicol\u00e1s Maduro<\/a>, warned a dastardly imperialist plot for an Iraq-style invasion was afoot.<\/p>\n

\u201cNo one will lay their hands on this land!\u201d Maduro thundered, calling on patriots to help repel the supposed regime change operation by joining his \u201cBolivarian militia\u201d.<\/p>\n

Donald Trump<\/a>\u2019s allies posted incendiary social media messages, warning the Venezuelan autocrat the end was nigh. \u201cYour days are seriously numbered,\u201d Trump\u2019s former national security advisor, Michael Flynn<\/a>, proclaimed, urging Maduro to buy \u201ca one-way ticket to Moscow\u201d.<\/p>\n

Another Trump supporter, Congressman Carlos Gimenez, celebrated \u201cthe largest military presence we have ever had off the coast of Venezuela\u201d and told Maduro to accept \u201chis time is up!\u201d<\/p>\n

The naval buildup and bellicose rhetoric might suggest Latin America is on the brink of an extraordinary foreign intervention, the likes of which the region hasn\u2019t seen since US troops invaded Panama to overthrow its dictator, Manuel Noriega, in 1989<\/a>. On Thursday, Cuba\u2019s foreign ministry accused<\/a> the US of seeking to turn \u201cthe waters of the Caribbean Sea into a war zone\u201d.<\/p>\n

But Venezuela experts and former US diplomats are skeptical Caracas is about to suffer a Baghdad-style \u201cshock and awe\u201d assault.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis is all performance on both sides,\u201d said Christopher Sabatini, a senior research fellow for Latin America at Chatham House.<\/p>\n

\u201cNo one in their right mind thinks that with 4,500 people you can invade a country that\u2019s got mountains, jungle and multiple urban centres,\u201d Sabatini added, referring to the number of US military<\/a> personnel being deployed to the Caribbean Sea as part of an \u201camphibious ready group\u201d theoretically capable of launching an attack from the sea.<\/p>\n

James Story, the US\u2019s top diplomat for Venezuela from 2018 to 2023, was similarly doubtful, suspecting the mobilization was \u201cmore about a show of force\u201d than a \u201cutilization of force\u201d.<\/p>\n

A cleaner sweeps in front of mural of depicting Venezuela\u2019s President Nicol\u00e1s Maduro in Caracas on Wednesday. Photograph: Juan Barreto\/AFP\/Getty Images<\/p>\n

Story believed many Venezuelans were so furious with Maduro\u2019s destruction of the country\u2019s economy and theft of last year\u2019s presidential election<\/a> that they wouldn\u2019t necessarily oppose him being deposed by a foreign force. \u201cBut the belief that somehow this particular group of ships and the US government portends a military engagement, I don\u2019t believe that to be true,\u201d added Story, who thought insufficient assets were being deployed for a military attack.<\/p>\n

\u201cWould it be capable of firing missiles, for instance, and doing a surgical strike against Fuerte Tiuna [the military base where Maduro is believed to live]? Yes, it could do that. But you could do that without such an ostentatious display of force as well. So the idea of there being an invasion, I don\u2019t believe to be true,\u201d said Story, who also believed Trump was generally against \u201cmeddling militarily in the affairs of other countries\u201d.<\/p>\n

Evan Ellis, a Latin America specialist from the US Army War College, told the Financial Times<\/a> the naval deployment would allow the US to put \u201ca lot of forces on the ground pretty quickly\u201d. Their \u201clogical mission\u201d would be \u201ca snatch-and-grab operation to bring Maduro to justice\u201d. But the academic, who served under secretary of state Mike Pompeo during Trump\u2019s first administration, was not convinced Trump was \u201ccommitted to pulling the trigger\u201d on such a mission yet.<\/p>\n

Officially, Trump\u2019s Caribbean deployment is part of US efforts to combat Latin American narco-traffickers, including a Venezuelan group called the Cartel de los Soles (Cartel of the Suns). Trump officials have accused Maduro of leading that cartel \u2013 charges the Venezuelan rejects \u2013 and recently slapped a $50m bounty on his head<\/a> \u2013 twice the value once offered for Osama bin Laden\u2019s capture. In July, Trump signed a secret directive<\/a> authorizing the use of military force against Latin American cartels considered terrorist organizations, including the Venezuelan group.<\/p>\n

But Sabatini suspected Trump\u2019s mobilization was largely about rattling the inner circle around Maduro and provoking \u201ca massive defection\u201d that would end his 12-year rule. \u201cIt\u2019s amateur psyops,\u201d Sabatini said, predicting such efforts would founder, just as they did in 2019, when Trump backed a botched attempt to topple Maduro by using threats and sanctions to encourage a military uprising that flopped<\/a>.<\/p>\n

A Venezuelan army truck transports a tank on a highway in Valencia on Wednesday after the US dispatched warships to the region. Photograph: Juan Carlos Hern\u00e1ndez\/AFP\/Getty Images<\/p>\n

Back then, Trump\u2019s national security advisor, John Bolton, claimed Maduro was \u201csurrounded by scorpions in a bottle\u201d and his downfall was \u201conly a matter of time\u201d.<\/p>\n

Six years on Maduro remains president and seems stronger than ever having claimed a third six-year term<\/a> after allegedly stealing last July\u2019s election.<\/p>\n

Thomas Shannon, a veteran US diplomat who has worked on Venezuela since the 90s, believed Trump was well aware the 2019 \u201cregime-change effort\u201d had failed \u201cmiserably\u201d. That explained why the US president had started his second term trying a different approach: engaging with Maduro and sending his special envoy, Richard Grenell, to Caracas to negotiate.<\/p>\n

Licences allowing US energy firms such as Chevron to operate in Venezuela \u2013 which boasts the world\u2019s largest known oil reserves \u2013 were initially left in place. \u201cHe even lets people know that there\u2019s some degree of admiration for Maduro as a strong leader,\u201d Shannon recalled.<\/p>\n

By May, however, Trump needed the support of Republican hardliners for his \u201cbig beautiful bill<\/a>\u201d for taxation. That required him to toughen his stance on Venezuela \u2013 at least superficially: hence the increasingly aggressive rhetoric and, now, the naval deployment.<\/p>\n

Asked \u200bon Thursday if Trump was considering strikes on military facilities in Venezuela, the White House press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, called Maduro the \u201cfugitive head\u201d of a \u201cnarco-terror cartel\u201d and said: \u201cThe president is prepared to use every element of American power to stop drugs from flooding into our country and to bring those responsible for justice\u201d\u200b.<\/p>\n

Venezuela\u2019s defense minister, Vladimir Padrino L\u00f3pez, holds a sign reading \u2018Venezuela is not a threat, we are hope\u2019 during a press conference in Caracas. Photograph: AFP\/Getty Images<\/p>\n

\u201cI think it\u2019s intimidation,\u201d Shannon said of the naval buildup, although that did not mean it was risk-free. \u201cThe danger \u2026 is that when you have that kind of military presence, the potential for something going wrong is always significant. And so the question is, what\u2019s next?\u201d<\/p>\n

Story and many Venezuelans suspect the answer is more of the same. \u201cThe safe money is that Maduro\u2019s not going anywhere \u2013 that\u2019s the easy call,\u201d said the ex-diplomat, who saw no evidence of a serious plan for what might happen if Maduro was overthrown or how to handle the political and social chaos that would ensue. \u201cI don\u2019t think anybody has a good idea of what comes next, which to me implies that no one\u2019s ready to take Maduro out,\u201d Story said.<\/p>\n

\u200bOn the calm streets of Caracas there is little sign of imminent conflict or change.<\/p>\n

As he took a break from playing football near Fuerte Tiuna, a 31-year-old accountant\u200b who gave his name as Hidalgo said he doubted the sabre-rattling would come to anything. Hidalgo hoped a democratic solution could be found for Venezuela\u2019s political deadlock and that bloodshed could be avoided.<\/p>\n

\u201cHistory teaches us that after this kind of conflict, what follows is chaos,\u201d he said. \u201cWhen there\u2019s this kind of conflict it\u2019s the innocent who always pay the price.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"As US warships carrying cruise missiles and marines powered towards Venezuela\u2019s coastline this week, supporters of the South…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":382196,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5311],"tags":[49,978,659],"class_list":{"0":"post-382195","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-united-states","8":"tag-united-states","9":"tag-us","10":"tag-usa"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@uk\/115111585629495777","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/382195","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=382195"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/382195\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/382196"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=382195"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=382195"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=382195"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}