{"id":384529,"date":"2025-08-30T07:10:14","date_gmt":"2025-08-30T07:10:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/384529\/"},"modified":"2025-08-30T07:10:14","modified_gmt":"2025-08-30T07:10:14","slug":"525m-liverpool-hypothesis-speaks-volumes-about-fsgs-alexander-isak-end-game-i-assure-you","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/384529\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00a3525m Liverpool hypothesis speaks volumes about FSG&#8217;s Alexander Isak end-game, &#8216;I assure you&#8230;&#8217;"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>If this transfer pantomime for the ages ends with Alexander Isak at Anfield, there is a good chance that the total value of the deal will eclipse the sum FSG paid to buy Liverpool \u2013 the entire club \u2013 in 2010.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/tbrfootball.com\/fsg-have-already-secured-1000-return-on-300m-liverpool-takeover-ive-sat-in-these-meetings\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Fenway Sports Group paid about \u00a3300m<\/a> to acquire 100 per cent control of <a href=\"https:\/\/tbrfootball.com\/topic\/liverpool\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Liverpool<\/a> 15 years ago, also clearing the club\u2019s debts once the takeover from Tom Hicks and George Gillett was complete.<\/p>\n<p>Today, Liverpool are reportedly ready to submit a bid worth \u00a3130m before add-ons for <a href=\"https:\/\/tbrfootball.com\/topic\/alexander-isak\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Alexander Isak<\/a>. And <a href=\"https:\/\/tbrfootball.com\/nick-woltemade-to-newcastle-united-deal-will-delight-one-manager-after-stern-transfer-warning\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Newcastle United\u2019s imminent capture of Nick Woltemade<\/a> from Stuttgart could grease the wheels for Liverpool\u2019s busy dealmakers.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/tbrfootball.com\/the-eye-watering-weekly-wage-alexander-isak-has-rejected-from-al-hilal-as-he-favours-liverpool-move\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Isak\u2019s weekly wage<\/a> at Anfield would be at least \u00a3300,000, which equates to almost \u00a380m over the course of a five-year deal. Add in National Insurance, bonuses, image rights and other provisions and the total outlay will \u2013 at a very conservative estimate \u2013 be closer to \u00a3110m.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" loading=\"lazy\"  src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/GettyImages-2199073404-1024x683.jpg\" alt=\"Newcastle United striker Alexander Isak with his back to the camera\" class=\"wp-image-981177\" \/>Photo by Robbie Jay Barratt \u2013 AMA\/Getty Images<\/p>\n<p>A 10 per cent agent fee, a four per cent <a href=\"https:\/\/tbrfootball.com\/topic\/english-premier-league\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Premier League<\/a> transfer levy, and five per cent FIFA-mandated solidary payment to Isak\u2019s former clubs increase the total value by another \u00a325m. <\/p>\n<p>If the 25-year-old lives up to his vaunted potential, add-ons could quite conceivably take Liverpool\u2019s outlay towards that \u00a3300m mark. <\/p>\n<p>These are dizzying numbers, especially when compared to where <a href=\"https:\/\/tbrfootball.com\/topic\/football-finance\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">football finance<\/a> was when <a href=\"https:\/\/tbrfootball.com\/topic\/fsg\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">FSG<\/a> bought the club.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/tbrfootball.com\/what-liverpool-are-about-to-spend-400m-on-blows-florian-wirtz-fee-out-the-water-this-is-how-titles-are-won\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Liverpool\u2019s annual wage bill<\/a> when <a href=\"https:\/\/tbrfootball.com\/topic\/john-henry\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">John Henry<\/a>, Tom Werner and the rest of Fenway\u2019s top brass pitched up on Merseyside in 2010 was \u00a3114m. Their turnover at the time was \u00a3185m. <\/p>\n<p>Fast-forward 15 years and Liverpool\u2019s revenue for 2024-25 is expected to be confirmed at over \u00a3700m once their accounts are released next February, while wages will surpass \u00a3400m. According to most analysis, the club\u2019s enterprise value has risen even quicker. <a href=\"https:\/\/tbrfootball.com\/fsg-sitting-on-4-25bn-stash-liverpool-investor-says-premier-league-title-is-just-the-start\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Liverpool are worth somewhere in the region of \u00a34-5bn<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"768\" loading=\"lazy\"  src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Liverpool-cumulative-wage-bill.png\" alt=\"Liverpool wage bill over time and cumulative wage bill under FSG\" class=\"wp-image-959106\" \/>Liverpool cumulative wage bill<\/p>\n<p>Credit: Adam Williams\/TBR Football\/GRV Media<\/p>\n<p>The most remarkable feature of FSG\u2019s reign has been that, in an era where ineffective financial controls and the rise of sovereign wealth has sent the game into an inflationary spiral, everything the Boston-based owners have done has been within their means.<\/p>\n<p>And if Isak signs before the window shuts at 7.00pm on Monday, the deal will adhere to the same principles of self-sufficiency.<\/p>\n<p>Alexander Isak deal could have seen Liverpool breach UEFA FFP without unprecedented player sale profits<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/tbrfootball.com\/topic\/liverpool\/transfers\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Liverpool\u2019s transfer business<\/a> so far this summer has cost them close to \u00a3240m. Isak would take that to \u00a3370m at the very least.<\/p>\n<ul class=\"inline-links multi\">\n<li>Florian Wirtz \u2013 \u00a3100m (plus \u00a316m add-ons) from Bayer Leverkusen<\/li>\n<li>Hugo Ekitike \u2013 \u00a369m (plus \u00a310m add-ons) from Eintracht Frankfurt<\/li>\n<li>Milos Kerkez \u2013 \u00a340m from Bournemouth<\/li>\n<li>Jeremie Frimpong \u2013 \u00a329.5m from Bayer Leverkusen<\/li>\n<li>Armin Pecsi \u2013 \u00a31.5m from Puskas Akademia<\/li>\n<li>Freddie Woodman \u2013 free transfer<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>And yet, under the Premier League\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/tbrfootball.com\/fsg-have-secured-under-the-radar-psr-boost-with-350m-deal-it-easily-covers-alexander-isak\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Profit and Sustainability Rules (PSR)<\/a>, the Reds have never had even a hint of anxiety thanks to soaring revenues and masterful cost control from FSG.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" loading=\"lazy\"  src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/GettyImages-2153292874-1024x683.jpg\" alt=\"Profile shot of Liverpool and FSG owner John Henry\" class=\"wp-image-981178\" \/>Photo by James Baylis \u2013 AMA\/Getty Images<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI assure you that Liverpool will have taken a deep and forensic analysis of their spending plans for A) the current year and B) the next two years,\u201d explains Liverpool University football finance lecturer Kieran Maguire, speaking exclusively to <strong>TBR Football<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThat will be flexible depending on the level of success on the pitch. The biggest driver will be the Champions League.\u201c<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/tbrfootball.com\/jamie-ohara-says-what-will-happen-when-trent-alexander-arnold-returns-to-liverpool-in-champions-league\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Liverpool\u2019s participation in the Champions League<\/a> means that it isn\u2019t just PSR that they have to worry about, however. They are UEFA\u2019s Football Earnings test and Squad Cost ratio rules too.<\/p>\n<tr>\n<td>Opponent<\/td>\n<td>Venue<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Real Madrid<\/td>\n<td>Home<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Inter Milan<\/td>\n<td>Away<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Atletico Madrid<\/td>\n<td>Home<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Eintracht Frankfurt<\/td>\n<td>Away<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>PSV Eindhoven<\/td>\n<td>Home<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Marseille<\/td>\n<td>Away<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Qarabag<\/td>\n<td>Home<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Galatasaray<\/td>\n<td>Away<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<p>Liverpool\u2019s 2025-26 Champions League league phase draw <\/p>\n<p>The Football Earnings test, which restricts losses for clubs deemed to be in good financial health to around \u00a375m after allowable costs over a rolling three-season period, was never going to be an issue.<\/p>\n<p>But for Michael Edwards, Richard Hughes and Arne Slot to realise their lofty ambitions in the transfer market this summer, Liverpool did need to make adjustments to ensure compliance with UEFA\u2019s Squad Cost limit.<\/p>\n<p>This element of UEFA FFP, as it is still colloquially known, limits clubs\u2019 spending on player and manager wages, transfers and agents\u2019 fees to 70 per cent of calendar-year revenue plus a three-season average of profit on player sales.<\/p>\n<p>In 2024-25, according to analysis from the football finance analyst <a href=\"https:\/\/gregcordell.substack.com\/p\/liverpool-fc-202425-financial-estimates\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">Greg Cordell<\/a>, Liverpool\u2019s revenue is likely to have been just shy of \u00a3719m. Their profit on player sales \u2013 which is calculated based on players\u2019 amortised book value offset against sale price \u2013 in the last two seasons meanwhile equates to just \u00a331m.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">With LFC\u2019s 2024\/25 financial period complete, I\u2019ll provide some initial\/rough *estimates* (w\/ full write-up this weekend).<\/p>\n<p>Key P&amp;L metrics estimated to improve notably vs 2023\/24:<br \/>\u2013 Rev of \u00a3714m (+\u00a3100m; +16.3%)<br \/>\u2013 Adj EBITDA of \u00a3140m (+\u00a370m)<br \/>\u2013 Pre-tax profit of \u00a348m (+\u00a3105m) <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/F034r55vXO\" rel=\"nofollow\">pic.twitter.com\/F034r55vXO<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Greg Cordell (@gregorypcordell) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/gregorypcordell\/status\/1932554003419676767?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">June 10, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>View Tweet<\/p>\n<p>Assuming similar revenue for the calendar year, that would give them a Squad Cost limit of \u00a3525m.<\/p>\n<p>Their amortisation was approximately \u00a3110m, per Cordell\u2019s analysis, while their wage bill probably passed the \u00a3400m mark. Around 75 per cent of that is attributable to player and manager wages, so the relevant wage bill is around \u00a3300m for UEFA Squad Cost purposes.<\/p>\n<p>Their business so far this summer has added approximately \u00a350m net in amortisation costs, plus \u00a320m in wages. Based on Cordell\u2019s estimates, that would take their relevant wage bill to \u00a3320m and their transfer amortisation to \u00a3160m. <\/p>\n<p>Add Isak\u2019s potential \u00a315.6m salary and annual amortisation of around \u00a330m and Liverpool would have been creeping over the Squad Cost limit of \u00a3525m.<\/p>\n<p>However, Liverpool have had their best ever summer in terms of player sale profits. And remember, that\u2019s in terms of accounting profit, not the fees for which now-sold players initially signed for the club.<\/p>\n<p>By <strong>TBR Football\u2019s<\/strong> calculations, Liverpool\u2019s sales have generated pprofits of \u00a3151.5m, which is higher even than in 2017-18, when they sold Philippe Coutinho to Barcelona for \u00a3142m.<\/p>\n<ul class=\"inline-links multi\">\n<li>Ben Doak \u2013 \u00a320m<\/li>\n<li>Luis Diaz \u2013 \u00a348m<\/li>\n<li>Darwin Nunez \u2013 \u00a320.8m<\/li>\n<li>Jarell Quansah \u2013 \u00a330m<\/li>\n<li>Caoimhin Kelleher \u2013 \u00a312.5m<\/li>\n<li>Trent Alexander-Arnold \u2013 \u00a38.5m<\/li>\n<li>Tyler Morton \u2013 \u00a38.5m<\/li>\n<li>Nat Phillips \u2013 \u00a33m<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>That in turn brings their three-year player sale profit average to \u00a371.1m and increases their Squad Cost limit to around \u00a3553m, meaning that they will have ample room for manoeuvre even if Isak is signed.<\/p>\n<p>They are rough figures, and the fact that UEFA\u2019s is a calendar year test means the true totals will be different. But even this rough calculation illustrates the importance of Liverpool\u2019s sales this summer.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThere is still scope for Liverpool to reduce costs over the course of the next three years. They have no problems whatsoever in the current market,\u201d Maguire tells <strong>TBR Football<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThey could sign Alexander Isak with ease, even at the full asking price and sky-high wages. They have absolutely nothing to worry about.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" loading=\"lazy\"  src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/GettyImages-2202140812-1-1024x683.jpg\" alt=\"Newcastle United striker Alexander Isak enters Anfield ahead of Premier League match against Liverpool\" class=\"wp-image-981193\" \/>Photo by Serena Taylor\/Newcastle United via Getty Images<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThey have got the Adidas deal which has kicked in with record sales. There are significant wage earners \u2013 Trent Alexander-Arnold, Luis Diaz, Darwin Nunez and so on \u2013 who are off payroll too. There is pure profit on the sale of Jarell Quansah and not far off pure profit off Ben Doak too.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Liverpool\u2019s Champions League bonanza could pay Isak transfer fee<\/p>\n<p>In 2021, Liverpool co-launched the star-crossed European Super League a mere 24 hours before UEFA were set to vote on the introduction of a new format for the Champions League.<\/p>\n<p>Because of the Super League crisis, that vote got put on the backburner. But the 36-team format \u2013 which was introduced last season \u2013 was itself designed to placate clubs like Liverpool who felt they were being sold short by UEFA and wanted to create their own franchise-style competition.<\/p>\n<p>The \u2018Swiss Model\u2019 Champions League has been a ripping success for the likes of Liverpool, who earned around \u00a385m during their run to the quarter-finals last season. <\/p>\n<p>With Slot\u2019s side virtually guaranteed to finish in the top 24 this season, they can also bank on five home matches at Anfield, each worth around \u00a35m. That means they will almost certainly break the \u00a3100m mark from the Champions League all told. <\/p>\n<p>Go deep into the tournament and they could even earn enough cash to fund most of Isak\u2019s would-be British-record transfer fee.<\/p>\n<p>The structures of European football mean that FSG are confident that a \u00a3130m-plus outlay on one player can be cost-effective.<\/p>\n<p>  <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"If this transfer pantomime for the ages ends with Alexander Isak at Anfield, there is a good chance&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":384530,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8815],"tags":[9261,748,393,162,4308,32882,4884,179,16,15],"class_list":{"0":"post-384529","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-liverpool","8":"tag-alexander-isak","9":"tag-britain","10":"tag-england","11":"tag-english-premier-league","12":"tag-football-finance","13":"tag-fsg","14":"tag-great-britain","15":"tag-liverpool","16":"tag-uk","17":"tag-united-kingdom"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@uk\/115116469658014552","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/384529","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=384529"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/384529\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/384530"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=384529"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=384529"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=384529"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}